Risk Assessment and Statistical Significance in the Age of Foundation Models

We propose a distributional framework for assessing socio-technical risks of foundation models with quantified statistical significance. Our approach hinges on a new statistical relative testing based on first and second order stochastic dominance of real random variables. We show that the second order statistics in this test are linked to mean-risk models commonly used in econometrics and mathematical finance to balance risk and utility when choosing between alternatives. Using this framework, we formally develop a risk-aware approach for foundation model selection given guardrails quantified by specified metrics. Inspired by portfolio optimization and selection theory in mathematical finance, we define a \emph{metrics portfolio} for each model as a means to aggregate a collection of metrics, and perform model selection based on the stochastic dominance of these portfolios. The statistical significance of our tests is backed theoretically by an asymptotic analysis via central limit theorems instantiated in practice via a bootstrap variance estimate. We use our framework to compare various large language models regarding risks related to drifting from instructions and outputting toxic content.

Auditing and Generating Synthetic Data with Controllable Trust Trade-offs

Data collected from the real world tends to be biased, unbalanced, and at risk of exposing sensitive and private information. This reality has given rise to the idea of creating synthetic datasets to alleviate risk, bias, harm, and privacy concerns inherent in the real data. This concept relies on Generative AI models to produce unbiased, privacy-preserving synthetic data while being true to the real data. In this new paradigm, how can we tell if this approach delivers on its promises? We present an auditing framework that offers a holistic assessment of synthetic datasets and AI models trained on them, centered around bias and discrimination prevention, fidelity to the real data, utility, robustness, and privacy preservation. We showcase our framework by auditing multiple generative models on diverse use cases, including education, healthcare, banking, human resources, and across different modalities, from tabular, to time-series, to natural language. Our use cases demonstrate the importance of a holistic assessment in order to ensure compliance with socio-technical safeguards that regulators and policymakers are increasingly enforcing. For this purpose, we introduce the trust index that ranks multiple synthetic datasets based on their prescribed safeguards and their desired trade-offs. Moreover, we devise a trust-index-driven model selection and cross-validation procedure via auditing in the training loop that we showcase on a class of transformer models that we dub TrustFormers, across different modalities. This trust-driven model selection allows for controllable trust trade-offs in the resulting synthetic data. We instrument our auditing framework with workflows that connect different stakeholders from model development to audit and certification via a synthetic data auditing report.

Effective Dynamics of Generative Adversarial Networks

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are a class of machine-learning models that use adversarial training to generate new samples with the same (potentially very complex) statistics as the training samples. One major form of training failure, known as mode collapse, involves the generator failing to reproduce the full diversity of modes in the target probability distribution. Here, we present an effective model of GAN training, which captures the learning dynamics by replacing the generator neural network with a collection of particles in the output space; particles are coupled by a universal kernel valid for certain wide neural networks and high-dimensional inputs. The generality of our simplified model allows us to study the conditions under which mode collapse occurs. Indeed, experiments which vary the effective kernel of the generator reveal a mode collapse transition, the shape of which can be related to the type of discriminator through the frequency principle. Further, we find that gradient regularizers of intermediate strengths can optimally yield convergence through critical damping of the generator dynamics. Our effective GAN model thus provides an interpretable physical framework for understanding and improving adversarial training.

Cloud-Based Real-Time Molecular Screening Platform with MolFormer

With the prospect of automating a number of chemical tasks with high fidelity, chemical language processing models are emerging at a rapid speed. Here, we present a cloud-based real-time platform that allows users to virtually screen molecules of interest. For this purpose, molecular embeddings inferred from a recently proposed large chemical language model, named MolFormer, are leveraged. The platform currently supports three tasks: nearest neighbor retrieval, chemical space visualization, and property prediction. Based on the functionalities of this platform and results obtained, we believe that such a platform can play a pivotal role in automating chemistry and chemical engineering research, as well as assist in drug discovery and material design tasks. A demo of our platform is provided at \url{www.ibm.biz/molecular_demo}.

Auditing Differential Privacy in High Dimensions with the Kernel Quantum Rényi Divergence

Differential privacy (DP) is the de facto standard for private data release and private machine learning. Auditing black-box DP algorithms and mechanisms to certify whether they satisfy a certain DP guarantee is challenging, especially in high dimension. We propose relaxations of differential privacy based on new divergences on probability distributions: the kernel R\'enyi divergence and its regularized version. We show that the regularized kernel R\'enyi divergence can be estimated from samples even in high dimensions, giving rise to auditing procedures for $\varepsilon$-DP, $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-DP and $(\alpha,\varepsilon)$-R\'enyi DP.

Learning with Stochastic Orders

Learning high-dimensional distributions is often done with explicit likelihood modeling or implicit modeling via minimizing integral probability metrics (IPMs). In this paper, we expand this learning paradigm to stochastic orders, namely, the convex or Choquet order between probability measures. Towards this end, we introduce the Choquet-Toland distance between probability measures, that can be used as a drop-in replacement for IPMs. We also introduce the Variational Dominance Criterion (VDC) to learn probability measures with dominance constraints, that encode the desired stochastic order between the learned measure and a known baseline. We analyze both quantities and show that they suffer from the curse of dimensionality and propose surrogates via input convex maxout networks (ICMNs), that enjoy parametric rates. Finally, we provide a min-max framework for learning with stochastic orders and validate it experimentally on synthetic and high-dimensional image generation, with promising results. The code is available at https://github.com/yair-schiff/stochastic-orders-ICMN

Cycle Consistent Probability Divergences Across Different Spaces

Discrepancy measures between probability distributions are at the core of statistical inference and machine learning. In many applications, distributions of interest are supported on different spaces, and yet a meaningful correspondence between data points is desired. Motivated to explicitly encode consistent bidirectional maps into the discrepancy measure, this work proposes a novel unbalanced Monge optimal transport formulation for matching, up to isometries, distributions on different spaces. Our formulation arises as a principled relaxation of the Gromov-Haussdroff distance between metric spaces, and employs two cycle-consistent maps that push forward each distribution onto the other. We study structural properties of the proposed discrepancy and, in particular, show that it captures the popular cycle-consistent generative adversarial network (GAN) framework as a special case, thereby providing the theory to explain it. Motivated by computational efficiency, we then kernelize the discrepancy and restrict the mappings to parametric function classes. The resulting kernelized version is coined the generalized maximum mean discrepancy (GMMD). Convergence rates for empirical estimation of GMMD are studied and experiments to support our theory are provided.

Physics-enhanced deep surrogates for PDEs

We present a "physics-enhanced deep-surrogate ("PEDS") approach towards developing fast surrogate models for complex physical systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) and similar models: we show how to combine a low-fidelity "coarse" solver with a neural network that generates "coarsified'' inputs, trained end-to-end to globally match the output of an expensive high-fidelity numerical solver. In this way, by incorporating limited physical knowledge in the form of the low-fidelity model, we find that a PEDS surrogate can be trained with at least $\sim 10\times$ less data than a "black-box'' neural network for the same accuracy. Asymptotically, PEDS appears to learn with a steeper power law than black-box surrogates, and benefits even further when combined with active learning. We demonstrate feasibility and benefit of the proposed approach by using an example problem in electromagnetic scattering that appears in the design of optical metamaterials.

Tighter Sparse Approximation Bounds for ReLU Neural Networks

A well-known line of work (Barron, 1993; Breiman, 1993; Klusowski & Barron, 2018) provides bounds on the width $n$ of a ReLU two-layer neural network needed to approximate a function $f$ over the ball $\mathcal{B}_R(\R^d)$ up to error $\epsilon$, when the Fourier based quantity $C_f = \int_{\R^d} \|\xi\|^2 |\hat{f}(\xi)| \ d\xi$ is finite. More recently Ongie et al. (2019) used the Radon transform as a tool for analysis of infinite-width ReLU two-layer networks. In particular, they introduce the concept of Radon-based $\mathcal{R}$-norms and show that a function defined on $\R^d$ can be represented as an infinite-width two-layer neural network if and only if its $\mathcal{R}$-norm is finite. In this work, we extend the framework of Ongie et al. (2019) and define similar Radon-based semi-norms ($\mathcal{R}, \mathcal{U}$-norms) such that a function admits an infinite-width neural network representation on a bounded open set $\mathcal{U} \subseteq \R^d$ when its $\mathcal{R}, \mathcal{U}$-norm is finite. Building on this, we derive sparse (finite-width) neural network approximation bounds that refine those of Breiman (1993); Klusowski & Barron (2018). Finally, we show that infinite-width neural network representations on bounded open sets are not unique and study their structure, providing a functional view of mode connectivity.