Leveraging World Events to Predict E-Commerce Consumer Demand under Anomaly

Consumer demand forecasting is of high importance for many e-commerce applications, including supply chain optimization, advertisement placement, and delivery speed optimization. However, reliable time series sales forecasting for e-commerce is difficult, especially during periods with many anomalies, as can often happen during pandemics, abnormal weather, or sports events. Although many time series algorithms have been applied to the task, prediction during anomalies still remains a challenge. In this work, we hypothesize that leveraging external knowledge found in world events can help overcome the challenge of prediction under anomalies. We mine a large repository of 40 years of world events and their textual representations. Further, we present a novel methodology based on transformers to construct an embedding of a day based on the relations of the day's events. Those embeddings are then used to forecast future consumer behavior. We empirically evaluate the methods over a large e-commerce products sales dataset, extracted from eBay, one of the world's largest online marketplaces. We show over numerous categories that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines during anomalies.

Video Editing via Factorized Diffusion Distillation

We introduce Emu Video Edit (EVE), a model that establishes a new state-of-the art in video editing without relying on any supervised video editing data. To develop EVE we separately train an image editing adapter and a video generation adapter, and attach both to the same text-to-image model. Then, to align the adapters towards video editing we introduce a new unsupervised distillation procedure, Factorized Diffusion Distillation. This procedure distills knowledge from one or more teachers simultaneously, without any supervised data. We utilize this procedure to teach EVE to edit videos by jointly distilling knowledge to (i) precisely edit each individual frame from the image editing adapter, and (ii) ensure temporal consistency among the edited frames using the video generation adapter. Finally, to demonstrate the potential of our approach in unlocking other capabilities, we align additional combinations of adapters

Bespoke Non-Stationary Solvers for Fast Sampling of Diffusion and Flow Models

This paper introduces Bespoke Non-Stationary (BNS) Solvers, a solver distillation approach to improve sample efficiency of Diffusion and Flow models. BNS solvers are based on a family of non-stationary solvers that provably subsumes existing numerical ODE solvers and consequently demonstrate considerable improvement in sample approximation (PSNR) over these baselines. Compared to model distillation, BNS solvers benefit from a tiny parameter space ($<$200 parameters), fast optimization (two orders of magnitude faster), maintain diversity of samples, and in contrast to previous solver distillation approaches nearly close the gap from standard distillation methods such as Progressive Distillation in the low-medium NFE regime. For example, BNS solver achieves 45 PSNR / 1.76 FID using 16 NFE in class-conditional ImageNet-64. We experimented with BNS solvers for conditional image generation, text-to-image generation, and text-2-audio generation showing significant improvement in sample approximation (PSNR) in all.

D-Flow: Differentiating through Flows for Controlled Generation

Taming the generation outcome of state of the art Diffusion and Flow-Matching (FM) models without having to re-train a task-specific model unlocks a powerful tool for solving inverse problems, conditional generation, and controlled generation in general. In this work we introduce D-Flow, a simple framework for controlling the generation process by differentiating through the flow, optimizing for the source (noise) point. We motivate this framework by our key observation stating that for Diffusion/FM models trained with Gaussian probability paths, differentiating through the generation process projects gradient on the data manifold, implicitly injecting the prior into the optimization process. We validate our framework on linear and non-linear controlled generation problems including: image and audio inverse problems and conditional molecule generation reaching state of the art performance across all.

Emu Edit: Precise Image Editing via Recognition and Generation Tasks

Instruction-based image editing holds immense potential for a variety of applications, as it enables users to perform any editing operation using a natural language instruction. However, current models in this domain often struggle with accurately executing user instructions. We present Emu Edit, a multi-task image editing model which sets state-of-the-art results in instruction-based image editing. To develop Emu Edit we train it to multi-task across an unprecedented range of tasks, such as region-based editing, free-form editing, and Computer Vision tasks, all of which are formulated as generative tasks. Additionally, to enhance Emu Edit's multi-task learning abilities, we provide it with learned task embeddings which guide the generation process towards the correct edit type. Both these elements are essential for Emu Edit's outstanding performance. Furthermore, we show that Emu Edit can generalize to new tasks, such as image inpainting, super-resolution, and compositions of editing tasks, with just a few labeled examples. This capability offers a significant advantage in scenarios where high-quality samples are scarce. Lastly, to facilitate a more rigorous and informed assessment of instructable image editing models, we release a new challenging and versatile benchmark that includes seven different image editing tasks.

Scaling Autoregressive Multi-Modal Models: Pretraining and Instruction Tuning

We present CM3Leon (pronounced "Chameleon"), a retrieval-augmented, token-based, decoder-only multi-modal language model capable of generating and infilling both text and images. CM3Leon uses the CM3 multi-modal architecture but additionally shows the extreme benefits of scaling up and tuning on more diverse instruction-style data. It is the first multi-modal model trained with a recipe adapted from text-only language models, including a large-scale retrieval-augmented pre-training stage and a second multi-task supervised fine-tuning (SFT) stage. It is also a general-purpose model that can do both text-to-image and image-to-text generation, allowing us to introduce self-contained contrastive decoding methods that produce high-quality outputs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that this recipe is highly effective for multi-modal models. CM3Leon achieves state-of-the-art performance in text-to-image generation with 5x less training compute than comparable methods (zero-shot MS-COCO FID of 4.88). After SFT, CM3Leon can also demonstrate unprecedented levels of controllability in tasks ranging from language-guided image editing to image-controlled generation and segmentation.

Pick-a-Pic: An Open Dataset of User Preferences for Text-to-Image Generation

The ability to collect a large dataset of human preferences from text-to-image users is usually limited to companies, making such datasets inaccessible to the public. To address this issue, we create a web app that enables text-to-image users to generate images and specify their preferences. Using this web app we build Pick-a-Pic, a large, open dataset of text-to-image prompts and real users' preferences over generated images. We leverage this dataset to train a CLIP-based scoring function, PickScore, which exhibits superhuman performance on the task of predicting human preferences. Then, we test PickScore's ability to perform model evaluation and observe that it correlates better with human rankings than other automatic evaluation metrics. Therefore, we recommend using PickScore for evaluating future text-to-image generation models, and using Pick-a-Pic prompts as a more relevant dataset than MS-COCO. Finally, we demonstrate how PickScore can enhance existing text-to-image models via ranking.

Text-To-4D Dynamic Scene Generation

We present MAV3D (Make-A-Video3D), a method for generating three-dimensional dynamic scenes from text descriptions. Our approach uses a 4D dynamic Neural Radiance Field (NeRF), which is optimized for scene appearance, density, and motion consistency by querying a Text-to-Video (T2V) diffusion-based model. The dynamic video output generated from the provided text can be viewed from any camera location and angle, and can be composited into any 3D environment. MAV3D does not require any 3D or 4D data and the T2V model is trained only on Text-Image pairs and unlabeled videos. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using comprehensive quantitative and qualitative experiments and show an improvement over previously established internal baselines. To the best of our knowledge, our method is the first to generate 3D dynamic scenes given a text description.

AudioGen: Textually Guided Audio Generation

We tackle the problem of generating audio samples conditioned on descriptive text captions. In this work, we propose AaudioGen, an auto-regressive generative model that generates audio samples conditioned on text inputs. AudioGen operates on a learnt discrete audio representation. The task of text-to-audio generation poses multiple challenges. Due to the way audio travels through a medium, differentiating ``objects'' can be a difficult task (e.g., separating multiple people simultaneously speaking). This is further complicated by real-world recording conditions (e.g., background noise, reverberation, etc.). Scarce text annotations impose another constraint, limiting the ability to scale models. Finally, modeling high-fidelity audio requires encoding audio at high sampling rate, leading to extremely long sequences. To alleviate the aforementioned challenges we propose an augmentation technique that mixes different audio samples, driving the model to internally learn to separate multiple sources. We curated 10 datasets containing different types of audio and text annotations to handle the scarcity of text-audio data points. For faster inference, we explore the use of multi-stream modeling, allowing the use of shorter sequences while maintaining a similar bitrate and perceptual quality. We apply classifier-free guidance to improve adherence to text. Comparing to the evaluated baselines, AudioGen outperforms over both objective and subjective metrics. Finally, we explore the ability of the proposed method to generate audio continuation conditionally and unconditionally. Samples: https://tinyurl.com/audiogen-text2audio

Make-A-Video: Text-to-Video Generation without Text-Video Data

We propose Make-A-Video -- an approach for directly translating the tremendous recent progress in Text-to-Image (T2I) generation to Text-to-Video (T2V). Our intuition is simple: learn what the world looks like and how it is described from paired text-image data, and learn how the world moves from unsupervised video footage. Make-A-Video has three advantages: (1) it accelerates training of the T2V model (it does not need to learn visual and multimodal representations from scratch), (2) it does not require paired text-video data, and (3) the generated videos inherit the vastness (diversity in aesthetic, fantastical depictions, etc.) of today's image generation models. We design a simple yet effective way to build on T2I models with novel and effective spatial-temporal modules. First, we decompose the full temporal U-Net and attention tensors and approximate them in space and time. Second, we design a spatial temporal pipeline to generate high resolution and frame rate videos with a video decoder, interpolation model and two super resolution models that can enable various applications besides T2V. In all aspects, spatial and temporal resolution, faithfulness to text, and quality, Make-A-Video sets the new state-of-the-art in text-to-video generation, as determined by both qualitative and quantitative measures.