Learning Decision Trees as Amortized Structure Inference

Building predictive models for tabular data presents fundamental challenges, notably in scaling consistently, i.e., more resources translating to better performance, and generalizing systematically beyond the training data distribution. Designing decision tree models remains especially challenging given the intractably large search space, and most existing methods rely on greedy heuristics, while deep learning inductive biases expect a temporal or spatial structure not naturally present in tabular data. We propose a hybrid amortized structure inference approach to learn predictive decision tree ensembles given data, formulating decision tree construction as a sequential planning problem. We train a deep reinforcement learning (GFlowNet) policy to solve this problem, yielding a generative model that samples decision trees from the Bayesian posterior. We show that our approach, DT-GFN, outperforms state-of-the-art decision tree and deep learning methods on standard classification benchmarks derived from real-world data, robustness to distribution shifts, and anomaly detection, all while yielding interpretable models with shorter description lengths. Samples from the trained DT-GFN model can be ensembled to construct a random forest, and we further show that the performance of scales consistently in ensemble size, yielding ensembles of predictors that continue to generalize systematically.

What if We Enrich day-ahead Solar Irradiance Time Series Forecasting with Spatio-Temporal Context?

Solar power harbors immense potential in mitigating climate change by substantially reducing CO$_{2}$ emissions. Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power into the electrical grid. While the majority of prior research has centered on employing purely time series-based methodologies for solar forecasting, only a limited number of studies have taken into account factors such as cloud cover or the surrounding physical context. In this paper, we put forth a deep learning architecture designed to harness spatio-temporal context using satellite data, to attain highly accurate \textit{day-ahead} time-series forecasting for any given station, with a particular emphasis on forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). We also suggest a methodology to extract a distribution for each time step prediction, which can serve as a very valuable measure of uncertainty attached to the forecast. When evaluating models, we propose a testing scheme in which we separate particularly difficult examples from easy ones, in order to capture the model performances in crucial situations, which in the case of this study are the days suffering from varying cloudy conditions. Furthermore, we present a new multi-modal dataset gathering satellite imagery over a large zone and time series for solar irradiance and other related physical variables from multiple geographically diverse solar stations. Our approach exhibits robust performance in solar irradiance forecasting, including zero-shot generalization tests at unobserved solar stations, and holds great promise in promoting the effective integration of solar power into the grid.