Challenges and Considerations in the Evaluation of Bayesian Causal Discovery

Representing uncertainty in causal discovery is a crucial component for experimental design, and more broadly, for safe and reliable causal decision making. Bayesian Causal Discovery (BCD) offers a principled approach to encapsulating this uncertainty. Unlike non-Bayesian causal discovery, which relies on a single estimated causal graph and model parameters for assessment, evaluating BCD presents challenges due to the nature of its inferred quantity - the posterior distribution. As a result, the research community has proposed various metrics to assess the quality of the approximate posterior. However, there is, to date, no consensus on the most suitable metric(s) for evaluation. In this work, we reexamine this question by dissecting various metrics and understanding their limitations. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we find that many existing metrics fail to exhibit a strong correlation with the quality of approximation to the true posterior, especially in scenarios with low sample sizes where BCD is most desirable. We highlight the suitability (or lack thereof) of these metrics under two distinct factors: the identifiability of the underlying causal model and the quantity of available data. Both factors affect the entropy of the true posterior, indicating that the current metrics are less fitting in settings of higher entropy. Our findings underline the importance of a more nuanced evaluation of new methods by taking into account the nature of the true posterior, as well as guide and motivate the development of new evaluation procedures for this challenge.

Diffusion Based Causal Representation Learning

Causal reasoning can be considered a cornerstone of intelligent systems. Having access to an underlying causal graph comes with the promise of cause-effect estimation and the identification of efficient and safe interventions. However, learning causal representations remains a major challenge, due to the complexity of many real-world systems. Previous works on causal representation learning have mostly focused on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE). These methods only provide representations from a point estimate, and they are unsuitable to handle high dimensions. To overcome these problems, we proposed a new Diffusion-based Causal Representation Learning (DCRL) algorithm. This algorithm uses diffusion-based representations for causal discovery. DCRL offers access to infinite dimensional latent codes, which encode different levels of information in the latent code. In a first proof of principle, we investigate the use of DCRL for causal representation learning. We further demonstrate experimentally that this approach performs comparably well in identifying the causal structure and causal variables.

Sensor Fault Detection and Isolation in Autonomous Nonlinear Systems Using Neural Network-Based Observers

This paper presents a new observer-based approach to detect and isolate faulty sensors in industrial systems. Two types of sensor faults are considered: complete failure and sensor deterioration. The proposed method is applicable to general autonomous nonlinear systems without making any assumptions about its triangular and/or normal form, which is usually considered in the observer design literature. The key aspect of our approach is a learning-based design of the Luenberger observer, which involves using a neural network to approximate the injective map that transforms the nonlinear system into a stable linear system with output injection. This learning-based Luenberger observer accurately estimates the system's state, allowing for the detection of sensor faults through residual generation. The residual is computed as the norm of the difference between the system's measured output and the observer's predicted output vectors. Fault isolation is achieved by comparing each sensor's measurement with its corresponding predicted value. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in capturing and isolating sensor faults while remaining robust in the presence of measurement noise and system uncertainty. We validate our method through numerical simulations of sensor faults in a network of Kuramoto oscillators.

Estimating a scalar log-concave random variable, using a silence set based probabilistic sampling

We study the probabilistic sampling of a random variable, in which the variable is sampled only if it falls outside a given set, which is called the silence set. This helps us to understand optimal event-based sampling for the special case of IID random processes, and also to understand the design of a sub-optimal scheme for other cases. We consider the design of this probabilistic sampling for a scalar, log-concave random variable, to minimize either the mean square estimation error, or the mean absolute estimation error. We show that the optimal silence interval: (i) is essentially unique, and (ii) is the limit of an iterative procedure of centering. Further we show through numerical experiments that super-level intervals seem to be remarkably near-optimal for mean square estimation. Finally we use the Gauss inequality for scalar unimodal densities, to show that probabilistic sampling gives a mean square distortion that is less than a third of the distortion incurred by periodic sampling, if the average sampling rate is between 0.3 and 0.9 samples per tick.

Shared Situational Awareness with V2X Communication and Set-membership Estimation

The ability to perceive and comprehend a traffic situation and to predict the intent of vehicles and road-users in the surrounding of the ego-vehicle is known as situational awareness. Situational awareness for a heavy-duty autonomous vehicle is a critical part of the automation platform and is dependent on the ego-vehicle's field-of-view. But when it comes to the urban scenario, the field-of-view of the ego-vehicle is likely to be affected by occlusion and blind spots caused by infrastructure, moving vehicles, and parked vehicles. This paper proposes a framework to improve situational awareness using set-membership estimation and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication. This framework provides safety guarantees and can adapt to dynamically changing scenarios, and is integrated into an existing complex autonomous platform. A detailed description of the framework implementation and real-time results are illustrated in this paper.

Learning-based Design of Luenberger Observers for Autonomous Nonlinear Systems

The design of Luenberger observers for nonlinear systems involves state transformation to another coordinate system where the dynamics are asymptotically stable and linear up to output injection. The observer then provides a state estimate in the original coordinates by inverting the transformation map. For general nonlinear systems, however, the main challenge is to find such a transformation and to ensure that it is injective. This paper addresses this challenge by proposing a learning method that employs supervised physics-informed neural networks to approximate both the transformation and its inverse. It is shown that the proposed method exhibits better generalization capabilities than other contemporary methods. Moreover, the observer is shown to be robust under the neural network's approximation error and the system uncertainties.

Data-Driven Reachability Analysis from Noisy Data

We consider the problem of computing reachable sets directly from noisy data without a given system model. Several reachability algorithms are presented, and their accuracy is shown to depend on the underlying system generating the data. First, an algorithm for computing over-approximated reachable sets based on matrix zonotopes is proposed for linear systems. Constrained matrix zonotopes are introduced to provide less conservative reachable sets at the cost of increased computational expenses and utilized to incorporate prior knowledge about the unknown system model. Then we extend the approach to polynomial systems and under the assumption of Lipschitz continuity to nonlinear systems. Theoretical guarantees are given for these algorithms in that they give a proper over-approximative reachable set containing the true reachable set. Multiple numerical examples show the applicability of the introduced algorithms, and accuracy comparisons are made between algorithms.

Robust Data-Driven Predictive Control using Reachability Analysis

We present a robust data-driven control scheme for unknown linear systems with a bounded process and measurement noise. Instead of depending on a system model as in traditional predictive control, a controller utilizing data-driven reachable regions is proposed. The data-driven reachable regions are based on a matrix zonotope recursion and are computed based on only noisy input-output data of a trajectory of the system. We assume that measurement and process noise are contained in bounded sets. While we assume knowledge of these bounds, no knowledge about the statistical properties of the noise is assumed. In the noise-free case, we prove that the presented purely data-driven control scheme results in an equivalent closed-loop behavior to a nominal model predictive control scheme. In the case of measurement and process noise, our proposed scheme guarantees robust constraint satisfaction, which is essential in safety-critical applications. Numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven controller in comparison to model-based control schemes.

Semantic Communications in Networked Systems

We present our vision for a departure from the established way of architecting and assessing communication networks, by incorporating the semantics of information for communications and control in networked systems. We define semantics of information, not as the meaning of the messages, but as their significance, possibly within a real time constraint, relative to the purpose of the data exchange. We argue that research efforts must focus on laying the theoretical foundations of a redesign of the entire process of information generation, transmission and usage in unison by developing: advanced semantic metrics for communications and control systems; an optimal sampling theory combining signal sparsity and semantics, for real-time prediction, reconstruction and control under communication constraints and delays; semantic compressed sensing techniques for decision making and inference directly in the compressed domain; semantic-aware data generation, channel coding, feedback, multiple and random access schemes that reduce the volume of data and the energy consumption, increasing the number of supportable devices.

Set-Membership Estimation in Shared Situational Awareness for Automated Vehicles in Occluded Scenarios

One of the main challenges in developing autonomous transport systems based on connected and automated vehicles is the comprehension and understanding of the environment around each vehicle. In many situations, the understanding is limited to the information gathered by the sensors mounted on the ego-vehicle, and it might be severely affected by occlusion caused by other vehicles or fixed obstacles along the road. Situational awareness is the ability to perceive and comprehend a traffic situation and to predict the intent of vehicles and road users in the surrounding of the ego-vehicle. The main objective of this paper is to propose a framework for how to automatically increase the situational awareness for an automatic bus in a realistic scenario when a pedestrian behind a parked truck might decide to walk across the road. Depending on the ego-vehicle's ability to fuse information from sensors in other vehicles or in the infrastructure, shared situational awareness is developed using a set-based estimation technique that provides robust guarantees for the location of the pedestrian. A two-level information fusion architecture is adopted, where sensor measurements are fused locally, and then the corresponding estimates are shared between vehicles and units in the infrastructure. Thanks to the provided safety guarantees, it is possible to appropriately adjust the ego-vehicle speed to maintain a proper safety margin. It is also argued that the framework is suitable for handling sensor failures and false detections in a systematic way. Three scenarios of growing information complexity are considered throughout the study. Simulations show how the increased situational awareness allows the ego-vehicle to maintain a reasonable speed without sacrificing safety.