Uncertainty Quantification for Neurosymbolic Programs via Compositional Conformal Prediction

Machine learning has become an effective tool for automatically annotating unstructured data (e.g., images) with structured labels (e.g., object detections). As a result, a new programming paradigm called neurosymbolic programming has emerged where users write queries against these predicted annotations. However, due to the intrinsic fallibility of machine learning models, these programs currently lack any notion of correctness. In many domains, users may want some kind of conservative guarantee that the results of their queries contain all possibly relevant instances. Conformal prediction has emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning by modifying models to predict sets of labels instead of individual labels; it provides a probabilistic guarantee that the prediction set contains the true label with high probability. We propose a novel framework for adapting conformal prediction to neurosymbolic programs; our strategy is to represent prediction sets as abstract values in some abstract domain, and then to use abstract interpretation to propagate prediction sets through the program. Our strategy satisfies three key desiderata: (i) correctness (i.e., the program outputs a prediction set that contains the true output with high probability), (ii) compositionality (i.e., we can quantify uncertainty separately for different modules and then compose them together), and (iii) structured values (i.e., we can provide uncertainty quantification for structured values such as lists). When the full program is available ahead-of-time, we propose an optimization that incorporates conformal prediction at intermediate program points to reduce imprecision in abstract interpretation. We evaluate our approach on programs that take MNIST and MS-COCO images as input, demonstrating that it produces reasonably sized prediction sets while satisfying a coverage guarantee.

MedBN: Robust Test-Time Adaptation against Malicious Test Samples

Test-time adaptation (TTA) has emerged as a promising solution to address performance decay due to unforeseen distribution shifts between training and test data. While recent TTA methods excel in adapting to test data variations, such adaptability exposes a model to vulnerability against malicious examples, an aspect that has received limited attention. Previous studies have uncovered security vulnerabilities within TTA even when a small proportion of the test batch is maliciously manipulated. In response to the emerging threat, we propose median batch normalization (MedBN), leveraging the robustness of the median for statistics estimation within the batch normalization layer during test-time inference. Our method is algorithm-agnostic, thus allowing seamless integration with existing TTA frameworks. Our experimental results on benchmark datasets, including CIFAR10-C, CIFAR100-C and ImageNet-C, consistently demonstrate that MedBN outperforms existing approaches in maintaining robust performance across different attack scenarios, encompassing both instant and cumulative attacks. Through extensive experiments, we show that our approach sustains the performance even in the absence of attacks, achieving a practical balance between robustness and performance.

PAC Prediction Sets Under Label Shift

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

PAC Neural Prediction Set Learning to Quantify the Uncertainty of Generative Language Models

Uncertainty learning and quantification of models are crucial tasks to enhance the trustworthiness of the models. Importantly, the recent surge of generative language models (GLMs) emphasizes the need for reliable uncertainty quantification due to the concerns on generating hallucinated facts. In this paper, we propose to learn neural prediction set models that comes with the probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantee for quantifying the uncertainty of GLMs. Unlike existing prediction set models, which are parameterized by a scalar value, we propose to parameterize prediction sets via neural networks, which achieves more precise uncertainty quantification but still satisfies the PAC guarantee. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on four types of language datasets and six types of models by showing that our method improves the quantified uncertainty by $63\%$ on average, compared to a standard baseline method.

TRAC: Trustworthy Retrieval Augmented Chatbot

Although conversational AIs have demonstrated fantastic performance, they often generate incorrect information, or hallucinations. Retrieval augmented generation has emerged as a promising solution to reduce these hallucinations. However, these techniques still cannot guarantee correctness. Focusing on question answering, we propose a framework that can provide statistical guarantees for the retrieval augmented question answering system by combining conformal prediction and global testing. In addition, we use Bayesian optimization to choose hyperparameters of the global test to maximize the performance of the system. Our empirical results on the Natural Questions dataset demonstrate that our method can provide the desired coverage guarantee while minimizing the average prediction set size.

ACon$^2$: Adaptive Conformal Consensus for Provable Blockchain Oracles

Blockchains with smart contracts are distributed ledger systems which achieve block state consistency among distributed nodes by only allowing deterministic operations of smart contracts. However, the power of smart contracts is enabled by interacting with stochastic off-chain data, which in turn opens the possibility to undermine the block state consistency. To address this issue, an oracle smart contract is used to provide a single consistent source of external data; but, simultaneously this introduces a single point of failure, which is called the oracle problem. To address the oracle problem, we propose an adaptive conformal consensus (ACon$^2$) algorithm, which derives consensus from multiple oracle contracts via the recent advance in online uncertainty quantification learning. In particular, the proposed algorithm returns a consensus set, which quantifies the uncertainty of data and achieves a desired correctness guarantee in the presence of Byzantine adversaries and distribution shift. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm on two price datasets and an Ethereum case study. In particular, the Solidity implementation of the proposed algorithm shows the practicality of the proposed algorithm, implying that online machine learning algorithms are applicable to address issues in blockchains.

Unsafe's Betrayal: Abusing Unsafe Rust in Binary Reverse Engineering toward Finding Memory-safety Bugs via Machine Learning

Memory-safety bugs introduce critical software-security issues. Rust provides memory-safe mechanisms to avoid memory-safety bugs in programming, while still allowing unsafe escape hatches via unsafe code. However, the unsafe code that enhances the usability of Rust provides clear spots for finding memory-safety bugs in Rust source code. In this paper, we claim that these unsafe spots can still be identifiable in Rust binary code via machine learning and be leveraged for finding memory-safety bugs. To support our claim, we propose the tool textttrustspot, that enables reverse engineering to learn an unsafe classifier that proposes a list of functions in Rust binaries for downstream analysis. We empirically show that the function proposals by textttrustspot can recall $92.92\%$ of memory-safety bugs, while it covers only $16.79\%$ of the entire binary code. As an application, we demonstrate that the function proposals are used in targeted fuzzing on Rust packages, which contribute to reducing the fuzzing time compared to non-targeted fuzzing.

CODiT: Conformal Out-of-Distribution Detection in Time-Series Data

Machine learning models are prone to making incorrect predictions on inputs that are far from the training distribution. This hinders their deployment in safety-critical applications such as autonomous vehicles and healthcare. The detection of a shift from the training distribution of individual datapoints has gained attention. A number of techniques have been proposed for such out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. But in many applications, the inputs to a machine learning model form a temporal sequence. Existing techniques for OOD detection in time-series data either do not exploit temporal relationships in the sequence or do not provide any guarantees on detection. We propose using deviation from the in-distribution temporal equivariance as the non-conformity measure in conformal anomaly detection framework for OOD detection in time-series data.Computing independent predictions from multiple conformal detectors based on the proposed measure and combining these predictions by Fisher's method leads to the proposed detector CODiT with guarantees on false detection in time-series data. We illustrate the efficacy of CODiT by achieving state-of-the-art results on computer vision datasets in autonomous driving. We also show that CODiT can be used for OOD detection in non-vision datasets by performing experiments on the physiological GAIT sensory dataset. Code, data, and trained models are available at https://github.com/kaustubhsridhar/time-series-OOD.

PAC Prediction Sets for Meta-Learning

Uncertainty quantification is a key component of machine learning models targeted at safety-critical systems such as in healthcare or autonomous vehicles. We study this problem in the context of meta learning, where the goal is to quickly adapt a predictor to new tasks. In particular, we propose a novel algorithm to construct \emph{PAC prediction sets}, which capture uncertainty via sets of labels, that can be adapted to new tasks with only a few training examples. These prediction sets satisfy an extension of the typical PAC guarantee to the meta learning setting; in particular, the PAC guarantee holds with high probability over future tasks. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on four datasets across three application domains: mini-ImageNet and CIFAR10-C in the visual domain, FewRel in the language domain, and the CDC Heart Dataset in the medical domain. In particular, our prediction sets satisfy the PAC guarantee while having smaller size compared to other baselines that also satisfy this guarantee.

Towards PAC Multi-Object Detection and Tracking

Accurately detecting and tracking multi-objects is important for safety-critical applications such as autonomous navigation. However, it remains challenging to provide guarantees on the performance of state-of-the-art techniques based on deep learning. We consider a strategy known as conformal prediction, which predicts sets of labels instead of a single label; in the classification and regression settings, these algorithms can guarantee that the true label lies within the prediction set with high probability. Building on these ideas, we propose multi-object detection and tracking algorithms that come with probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees. They do so by constructing both a prediction set around each object detection as well as around the set of edge transitions; given an object, the detection prediction set contains its true bounding box with high probability, and the edge prediction set contains its true transition across frames with high probability. We empirically demonstrate that our method can detect and track objects with PAC guarantees on the COCO and MOT-17 datasets.