Predictive Model Development to Identify Failed Healing in Patients after Non-Union Fracture Surgery

Bone non-union is among the most severe complications associated with trauma surgery, occurring in 10-30% of cases after long bone fractures. Treating non-unions requires a high level of surgical expertise and often involves multiple revision surgeries, sometimes even leading to amputation. Thus, more accurate prognosis is crucial for patient well-being. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) hold promise for developing models to predict non-union healing, even when working with smaller datasets, a commonly encountered challenge in clinical domains. To demonstrate the effectiveness of ML in identifying candidates at risk of failed non-union healing, we applied three ML models (logistic regression, support vector machine, and XGBoost) to the clinical dataset TRUFFLE, which includes 797 patients with long bone non-union. The models provided prediction results with 70% sensitivity, and the specificities of 66% (XGBoost), 49% (support vector machine), and 43% (logistic regression). These findings offer valuable clinical insights because they enable early identification of patients at risk of failed non-union healing after the initial surgical revision treatment protocol.

Risk-averse Learning with Non-Stationary Distributions

Considering non-stationary environments in online optimization enables decision-maker to effectively adapt to changes and improve its performance over time. In such cases, it is favorable to adopt a strategy that minimizes the negative impact of change to avoid potentially risky situations. In this paper, we investigate risk-averse online optimization where the distribution of the random cost changes over time. We minimize risk-averse objective function using the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as risk measure. Due to the difficulty in obtaining the exact CVaR gradient, we employ a zeroth-order optimization approach that queries the cost function values multiple times at each iteration and estimates the CVaR gradient using the sampled values. To facilitate the regret analysis, we use a variation metric based on Wasserstein distance to capture time-varying distributions. Given that the distribution variation is sub-linear in the total number of episodes, we show that our designed learning algorithm achieves sub-linear dynamic regret with high probability for both convex and strongly convex functions. Moreover, theoretical results suggest that increasing the number of samples leads to a reduction in the dynamic regret bounds until the sampling number reaches a specific limit. Finally, we provide numerical experiments of dynamic pricing in a parking lot to illustrate the efficacy of the designed algorithm.

Decentralized Event-Triggered Online Learning for Safe Consensus of Multi-Agent Systems with Gaussian Process Regression

Consensus control in multi-agent systems has received significant attention and practical implementation across various domains. However, managing consensus control under unknown dynamics remains a significant challenge for control design due to system uncertainties and environmental disturbances. This paper presents a novel learning-based distributed control law, augmented by an auxiliary dynamics. Gaussian processes are harnessed to compensate for the unknown components of the multi-agent system. For continuous enhancement in predictive performance of Gaussian process model, a data-efficient online learning strategy with a decentralized event-triggered mechanism is proposed. Furthermore, the control performance of the proposed approach is ensured via the Lyapunov theory, based on a probabilistic guarantee for prediction error bounds. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed learning-based controller, a comparative analysis is conducted, contrasting it with both conventional distributed control laws and offline learning methodologies.

Cooperative Learning with Gaussian Processes for Euler-Lagrange Systems Tracking Control under Switching Topologies

This work presents an innovative learning-based approach to tackle the tracking control problem of Euler-Lagrange multi-agent systems with partially unknown dynamics operating under switching communication topologies. The approach leverages a correlation-aware cooperative algorithm framework built upon Gaussian process regression, which adeptly captures inter-agent correlations for uncertainty predictions. A standout feature is its exceptional efficiency in deriving the aggregation weights achieved by circumventing the computationally intensive posterior variance calculations. Through Lyapunov stability analysis, the distributed control law ensures bounded tracking errors with high probability. Simulation experiments validate the protocol's efficacy in effectively managing complex scenarios, establishing it as a promising solution for robust tracking control in multi-agent systems characterized by uncertain dynamics and dynamic communication structures.

Whom to Trust? Elective Learning for Distributed Gaussian Process Regression

This paper introduces an innovative approach to enhance distributed cooperative learning using Gaussian process (GP) regression in multi-agent systems (MASs). The key contribution of this work is the development of an elective learning algorithm, namely prior-aware elective distributed GP (Pri-GP), which empowers agents with the capability to selectively request predictions from neighboring agents based on their trustworthiness. The proposed Pri-GP effectively improves individual prediction accuracy, especially in cases where the prior knowledge of an agent is incorrect. Moreover, it eliminates the need for computationally intensive variance calculations for determining aggregation weights in distributed GP. Furthermore, we establish a prediction error bound within the Pri-GP framework, ensuring the reliability of predictions, which is regarded as a crucial property in safety-critical MAS applications.

Safe Online Dynamics Learning with Initially Unknown Models and Infeasible Safety Certificates

Safety-critical control tasks with high levels of uncertainty are becoming increasingly common. Typically, techniques that guarantee safety during learning and control utilize constraint-based safety certificates, which can be leveraged to compute safe control inputs. However, excessive model uncertainty can render robust safety certification methods or infeasible, meaning no control input satisfies the constraints imposed by the safety certificate. This paper considers a learning-based setting with a robust safety certificate based on a control barrier function (CBF) second-order cone program. If the control barrier function certificate is feasible, our approach leverages it to guarantee safety. Otherwise, our method explores the system dynamics to collect data and recover the feasibility of the control barrier function constraint. To this end, we employ a method inspired by well-established tools from Bayesian optimization. We show that if the sampling frequency is high enough, we recover the feasibility of the robust CBF certificate, guaranteeing safety. Our approach requires no prior model and corresponds, to the best of our knowledge, to the first algorithm that guarantees safety in settings with occasionally infeasible safety certificates without requiring a backup non-learning-based controller.

Online Constraint Tightening in Stochastic Model Predictive Control: A Regression Approach

Solving chance-constrained stochastic optimal control problems is a significant challenge in control. This is because no analytical solutions exist for up to a handful of special cases. A common and computationally efficient approach for tackling chance-constrained stochastic optimal control problems consists of reformulating the chance constraints as hard constraints with a constraint-tightening parameter. However, in such approaches, the choice of constraint-tightening parameter remains challenging, and guarantees can mostly be obtained assuming that the process noise distribution is known a priori. Moreover, the chance constraints are often not tightly satisfied, leading to unnecessarily high costs. This work proposes a data-driven approach for learning the constraint-tightening parameters online during control. To this end, we reformulate the choice of constraint-tightening parameter for the closed-loop as a binary regression problem. We then leverage a highly expressive \gls{gp} model for binary regression to approximate the smallest constraint-tightening parameters that satisfy the chance constraints. By tuning the algorithm parameters appropriately, we show that the resulting constraint-tightening parameters satisfy the chance constraints up to an arbitrarily small margin with high probability. Our approach yields constraint-tightening parameters that tightly satisfy the chance constraints in numerical experiments, resulting in a lower average cost than three other state-of-the-art approaches.

Episodic Gaussian Process-Based Learning Control with Vanishing Tracking Errors

Due to the increasing complexity of technical systems, accurate first principle models can often not be obtained. Supervised machine learning can mitigate this issue by inferring models from measurement data. Gaussian process regression is particularly well suited for this purpose due to its high data-efficiency and its explicit uncertainty representation, which allows the derivation of prediction error bounds. These error bounds have been exploited to show tracking accuracy guarantees for a variety of control approaches, but their direct dependency on the training data is generally unclear. We address this issue by deriving a Bayesian prediction error bound for GP regression, which we show to decay with the growth of a novel, kernel-based measure of data density. Based on the prediction error bound, we prove time-varying tracking accuracy guarantees for learned GP models used as feedback compensation of unknown nonlinearities, and show to achieve vanishing tracking error with increasing data density. This enables us to develop an episodic approach for learning Gaussian process models, such that an arbitrary tracking accuracy can be guaranteed. The effectiveness of the derived theory is demonstrated in several simulations.

Koopman Kernel Regression

Many machine learning approaches for decision making, such as reinforcement learning, rely on simulators or predictive models to forecast the time-evolution of quantities of interest, e.g., the state of an agent or the reward of a policy. Forecasts of such complex phenomena are commonly described by highly nonlinear dynamical systems, making their use in optimization-based decision-making challenging. Koopman operator theory offers a beneficial paradigm for addressing this problem by characterizing forecasts via linear dynamical systems. This makes system analysis and long-term predictions simple -- involving only matrix multiplications. However, the transformation to a linear system is generally non-trivial and unknown, requiring learning-based approaches. While there exists a variety of approaches, they usually lack crucial learning-theoretic guarantees, such that the behavior of the obtained models with increasing data and dimensionality is often unclear. We address the aforementioned by deriving a novel reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) that solely spans transformations into linear dynamical systems. The resulting Koopman Kernel Regression (KKR) framework enables the use of statistical learning tools from function approximation for novel convergence results and generalization risk bounds under weaker assumptions than existing work. Our numerical experiments indicate advantages over state-of-the-art statistical learning approaches for Koopman-based predictors.

Can Learning Deteriorate Control? Analyzing Computational Delays in Gaussian Process-Based Event-Triggered Online Learning

When the dynamics of systems are unknown, supervised machine learning techniques are commonly employed to infer models from data. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a particularly popular learning method for this purpose due to the existence of prediction error bounds. Moreover, GP models can be efficiently updated online, such that event-triggered online learning strategies can be pursued to ensure specified tracking accuracies. However, existing trigger conditions must be able to be evaluated at arbitrary times, which cannot be achieved in practice due to non-negligible computation times. Therefore, we first derive a delay-aware tracking error bound, which reveals an accuracy-delay trade-off. Based on this result, we propose a novel event trigger for GP-based online learning with computational delays, which we show to offer advantages over offline trained GP models for sufficiently small computation times. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed event trigger for online learning in simulations.