Assessment of Prediction Intervals Using Uncertainty Characteristics Curves

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to an ad-hoc operating point, making evaluation and comparison across different studies relatively difficult. Our work leverages: (1) the concept of operating characteristics curves and (2) the notion of a gain over a null reference, to derive a novel operating point agnostic assessment methodology for prediction intervals. The paper defines the Uncertainty Characteristics Curve and demonstrates its utility in selected scenarios. We argue that the proposed method addresses the current need for comprehensive assessment of prediction intervals and thus represents a valuable addition to the uncertainty quantification toolbox.

Equivariant Few-Shot Learning from Pretrained Models

Efficient transfer learning algorithms are key to the success of foundation models on diverse downstream tasks even with limited data. Recent works of \cite{basu2022equi} and \cite{kaba2022equivariance} propose group averaging (\textit{equitune}) and optimization-based methods, respectively, over features from group-transformed inputs to obtain equivariant outputs from non-equivariant neural networks. While \cite{kaba2022equivariance} are only concerned with training from scratch, we find that equitune performs poorly on equivariant zero-shot tasks despite good finetuning results. We hypothesize that this is because pretrained models provide better quality features for certain transformations than others and simply averaging them is deleterious. Hence, we propose $\lambda$-\textit{equitune} that averages the features using \textit{importance weights}, $\lambda$s. These weights are learned directly from the data using a small neural network, leading to excellent zero-shot and finetuned results that outperform equitune. Further, we prove that $\lambda$-equitune is equivariant and a universal approximator of equivariant functions. Additionally, we show that the method of \cite{kaba2022equivariance} used with appropriate loss functions, which we call \textit{equizero}, also gives excellent zero-shot and finetuned performance. Both equitune and equizero are special cases of $\lambda$-equitune. To show the simplicity and generality of our method, we validate on a wide range of diverse applications and models such as 1) image classification using CLIP, 2) deep Q-learning, 3) fairness in natural language generation (NLG), 4) compositional generalization in languages, and 5) image classification using pretrained CNNs such as Resnet and Alexnet.

Reliable Gradient-free and Likelihood-free Prompt Tuning

Due to privacy or commercial constraints, large pre-trained language models (PLMs) are often offered as black-box APIs. Fine-tuning such models to downstream tasks is challenging because one can neither access the model's internal representations nor propagate gradients through it. This paper addresses these challenges by developing techniques for adapting PLMs with only API access. Building on recent work on soft prompt tuning, we develop methods to tune the soft prompts without requiring gradient computation. Further, we develop extensions that in addition to not requiring gradients also do not need to access any internal representation of the PLM beyond the input embeddings. Moreover, instead of learning a single prompt, our methods learn a distribution over prompts allowing us to quantify predictive uncertainty. Ours is the first work to consider uncertainty in prompts when only having API access to the PLM. Finally, through extensive experiments, we carefully vet the proposed methods and find them competitive with (and sometimes even improving on) gradient-based approaches with full access to the PLM.

Group Fairness with Uncertainty in Sensitive Attributes

We consider learning a fair predictive model when sensitive attributes are uncertain, say, due to a limited amount of labeled data, collection bias, or privacy mechanism. We formulate the problem, for the independence notion of fairness, using the information bottleneck principle, and propose a robust optimization with respect to an uncertainty set of the sensitive attributes. As an illustrative case, we consider the joint Gaussian model and reduce the task to a quadratically constrained quadratic problem (QCQP). To ensure a strict fairness guarantee, we propose a robust QCQP and completely characterize its solution with an intuitive geometric understanding. When uncertainty arises due to limited labeled sensitive attributes, our analysis reveals the contribution of each new sample towards the optimal performance achieved with unlimited access to labeled sensitive attributes. This allows us to identify non-trivial regimes where uncertainty incurs no performance loss of the proposed algorithm while continuing to guarantee strict fairness. We also propose a bootstrap-based generic algorithm that is applicable beyond the Gaussian case. We demonstrate the value of our analysis and method on synthetic data as well as real-world classification and regression tasks.

Who Should Predict? Exact Algorithms For Learning to Defer to Humans

Automated AI classifiers should be able to defer the prediction to a human decision maker to ensure more accurate predictions. In this work, we jointly train a classifier with a rejector, which decides on each data point whether the classifier or the human should predict. We show that prior approaches can fail to find a human-AI system with low misclassification error even when there exists a linear classifier and rejector that have zero error (the realizable setting). We prove that obtaining a linear pair with low error is NP-hard even when the problem is realizable. To complement this negative result, we give a mixed-integer-linear-programming (MILP) formulation that can optimally solve the problem in the linear setting. However, the MILP only scales to moderately-sized problems. Therefore, we provide a novel surrogate loss function that is realizable-consistent and performs well empirically. We test our approaches on a comprehensive set of datasets and compare to a wide range of baselines.

Post-hoc Uncertainty Learning using a Dirichlet Meta-Model

It is known that neural networks have the problem of being over-confident when directly using the output label distribution to generate uncertainty measures. Existing methods mainly resolve this issue by retraining the entire model to impose the uncertainty quantification capability so that the learned model can achieve desired performance in accuracy and uncertainty prediction simultaneously. However, training the model from scratch is computationally expensive and may not be feasible in many situations. In this work, we consider a more practical post-hoc uncertainty learning setting, where a well-trained base model is given, and we focus on the uncertainty quantification task at the second stage of training. We propose a novel Bayesian meta-model to augment pre-trained models with better uncertainty quantification abilities, which is effective and computationally efficient. Our proposed method requires no additional training data and is flexible enough to quantify different uncertainties and easily adapt to different application settings, including out-of-domain data detection, misclassification detection, and trustworthy transfer learning. We demonstrate our proposed meta-model approach's flexibility and superior empirical performance on these applications over multiple representative image classification benchmarks.

Fair Infinitesimal Jackknife: Mitigating the Influence of Biased Training Data Points Without Refitting

In consequential decision-making applications, mitigating unwanted biases in machine learning models that yield systematic disadvantage to members of groups delineated by sensitive attributes such as race and gender is one key intervention to strive for equity. Focusing on demographic parity and equality of opportunity, in this paper we propose an algorithm that improves the fairness of a pre-trained classifier by simply dropping carefully selected training data points. We select instances based on their influence on the fairness metric of interest, computed using an infinitesimal jackknife-based approach. The dropping of training points is done in principle, but in practice does not require the model to be refit. Crucially, we find that such an intervention does not substantially reduce the predictive performance of the model but drastically improves the fairness metric. Through careful experiments, we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on diverse tasks and find that it consistently improves upon existing alternatives.

Equi-Tuning: Group Equivariant Fine-Tuning of Pretrained Models

We introduce equi-tuning, a novel fine-tuning method that transforms (potentially non-equivariant) pretrained models into group equivariant models while incurring minimum $L_2$ loss between the feature representations of the pretrained and the equivariant models. Large pretrained models can be equi-tuned for different groups to satisfy the needs of various downstream tasks. Equi-tuned models benefit from both group equivariance as an inductive bias and semantic priors from pretrained models. We provide applications of equi-tuning on three different tasks: image classification, compositional generalization in language, and fairness in natural language generation (NLG). We also provide a novel group-theoretic definition for fairness in NLG. The effectiveness of this definition is shown by testing it against a standard empirical method of fairness in NLG. We provide experimental results for equi-tuning using a variety of pretrained models: Alexnet, Resnet, VGG, and Densenet for image classification; RNNs, GRUs, and LSTMs for compositional generalization; and GPT2 for fairness in NLG. We test these models on benchmark datasets across all considered tasks to show the generality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Causal Bandits for Linear Structural Equation Models

This paper studies the problem of designing an optimal sequence of interventions in a causal graphical model to minimize the cumulative regret with respect to the best intervention in hindsight. This is, naturally, posed as a causal bandit problem. The focus is on causal bandits for linear structural equation models (SEMs) and soft interventions. It is assumed that the graph's structure is known, and it has $N$ nodes. Two linear mechanisms, one soft intervention and one observational, are assumed for each node, giving rise to $2^N$ possible interventions. The existing causal bandit algorithms assume that at least the interventional distributions of the reward node's parents are fully specified. However, there are $2^N$ such distributions (one corresponding to each intervention), acquiring which becomes prohibitive even in moderate-sized graphs. This paper dispenses with the assumption of knowing these distributions. Two algorithms are proposed for the frequentist (UCB-based) and Bayesian (Thompson Sampling-based) settings. The key idea of these algorithms is to avoid directly estimating the $2^N$ reward distributions and instead estimate the parameters that fully specify the SEMs (linear in $N$) and use them to compute the rewards. In both algorithms, under boundedness assumptions on noise and the parameter space, the cumulative regrets scale as $\tilde{\cal O} ((2d)^L L \sqrt{T})$, where $d$ is the graph's maximum degree, and $L$ is the length of its longest causal path.

Generating physically-consistent high-resolution climate data with hard-constrained neural networks

The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by computational costs and therefore often predict quantities at a coarse spatial resolution. Statistical downscaling can provide an efficient method of upsampling low-resolution data. In this field, deep learning has been applied successfully, often using methods from the super-resolution domain in computer vision. Despite often achieving visually compelling results, such models often violate conservation laws when predicting physical variables. In order to conserve important physical quantities, we develop methods that guarantee physical constraints are satisfied by a deep downscaling model while also increasing their performance according to traditional metrics. We introduce two ways of constraining the network: A renormalization layer added to the end of the neural network and a successive approach that scales with increasing upsampling factors. We show the applicability of our methods across different popular architectures and upsampling factors using ERA5 reanalysis data.