Explainable Graph Pyramid Autoformer for Long-Term Traffic Forecasting

Accurate traffic forecasting is vital to an intelligent transportation system. Although many deep learning models have achieved state-of-art performance for short-term traffic forecasting of up to 1 hour, long-term traffic forecasting that spans multiple hours remains a major challenge. Moreover, most of the existing deep learning traffic forecasting models are black box, presenting additional challenges related to explainability and interpretability. We develop Graph Pyramid Autoformer (X-GPA), an explainable attention-based spatial-temporal graph neural network that uses a novel pyramid autocorrelation attention mechanism. It enables learning from long temporal sequences on graphs and improves long-term traffic forecasting accuracy. Our model can achieve up to 35 % better long-term traffic forecast accuracy than that of several state-of-the-art methods. The attention-based scores from the X-GPA model provide spatial and temporal explanations based on the traffic dynamics, which change for normal vs. peak-hour traffic and weekday vs. weekend traffic.

Asynchronous Distributed Bayesian Optimization at HPC Scale

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used approach for computationally expensive black-box optimization such as simulator calibration and hyperparameter optimization of deep learning methods. In BO, a dynamically updated computationally cheap surrogate model is employed to learn the input-output relationship of the black-box function; this surrogate model is used to explore and exploit the promising regions of the input space. Multipoint BO methods adopt a single manager/multiple workers strategy to achieve high-quality solutions in shorter time. However, the computational overhead in multipoint generation schemes is a major bottleneck in designing BO methods that can scale to thousands of workers. We present an asynchronous-distributed BO (ADBO) method wherein each worker runs a search and asynchronously communicates the input-output values of black-box evaluations from all other workers without the manager. We scale our method up to 4,096 workers and demonstrate improvement in the quality of the solution and faster convergence. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for tuning the hyperparameters of neural networks from the Exascale computing project CANDLE benchmarks.

Multifidelity Reinforcement Learning with Control Variates

In many computational science and engineering applications, the output of a system of interest corresponding to a given input can be queried at different levels of fidelity with different costs. Typically, low-fidelity data is cheap and abundant, while high-fidelity data is expensive and scarce. In this work we study the reinforcement learning (RL) problem in the presence of multiple environments with different levels of fidelity for a given control task. We focus on improving the RL agent's performance with multifidelity data. Specifically, a multifidelity estimator that exploits the cross-correlations between the low- and high-fidelity returns is proposed to reduce the variance in the estimation of the state-action value function. The proposed estimator, which is based on the method of control variates, is used to design a multifidelity Monte Carlo RL (MFMCRL) algorithm that improves the learning of the agent in the high-fidelity environment. The impacts of variance reduction on policy evaluation and policy improvement are theoretically analyzed by using probability bounds. Our theoretical analysis and numerical experiments demonstrate that for a finite budget of high-fidelity data samples, our proposed MFMCRL agent attains superior performance compared with that of a standard RL agent that uses only the high-fidelity environment data for learning the optimal policy.

Sequential Bayesian Neural Subnetwork Ensembles

Deep neural network ensembles that appeal to model diversity have been used successfully to improve predictive performance and model robustness in several applications. Whereas, it has recently been shown that sparse subnetworks of dense models can match the performance of their dense counterparts and increase their robustness while effectively decreasing the model complexity. However, most ensembling techniques require multiple parallel and costly evaluations and have been proposed primarily with deterministic models, whereas sparsity induction has been mostly done through ad-hoc pruning. We propose sequential ensembling of dynamic Bayesian neural subnetworks that systematically reduce model complexity through sparsity-inducing priors and generate diverse ensembles in a single forward pass of the model. The ensembling strategy consists of an exploration phase that finds high-performing regions of the parameter space and multiple exploitation phases that effectively exploit the compactness of the sparse model to quickly converge to different minima in the energy landscape corresponding to high-performing subnetworks yielding diverse ensembles. We empirically demonstrate that our proposed approach surpasses the baselines of the dense frequentist and Bayesian ensemble models in prediction accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and out-of-distribution (OoD) robustness on CIFAR10, CIFAR100 datasets, and their out-of-distribution variants: CIFAR10-C, CIFAR100-C induced by corruptions. Furthermore, we found that our approach produced the most diverse ensembles compared to the approaches with a single forward pass and even compared to the approaches with multiple forward passes in some cases.

Deep-Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Quantification in Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks for Traffic Forecasting

Deep-learning-based data-driven forecasting methods have produced impressive results for traffic forecasting. A major limitation of these methods, however, is that they provide forecasts without estimates of uncertainty, which are critical for real-time deployments. We focus on a diffusion convolutional recurrent neural network (DCRNN), a state-of-the-art method for short-term traffic forecasting. We develop a scalable deep ensemble approach to quantify uncertainties for DCRNN. Our approach uses a scalable Bayesian optimization method to perform hyperparameter optimization, selects a set of high-performing configurations, fits a generative model to capture the joint distributions of the hyperparameter configurations, and trains an ensemble of models by sampling a new set of hyperparameter configurations from the generative model. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods by comparing them with other uncertainty estimation techniques. We show that our generic and scalable approach outperforms the current state-of-the-art Bayesian and a number of other commonly used frequentist techniques.

Stabilized Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Long-Time Forecasting of Dynamical Systems

In data-driven modeling of spatiotemporal phenomena careful consideration often needs to be made in capturing the dynamics of the high wavenumbers. This problem becomes especially challenging when the system of interest exhibits shocks or chaotic dynamics. We present a data-driven modeling method that accurately captures shocks and chaotic dynamics by proposing a novel architecture, stabilized neural ordinary differential equation (ODE). In our proposed architecture, we learn the right-hand-side (RHS) of an ODE by adding the outputs of two NN together where one learns a linear term and the other a nonlinear term. Specifically, we implement this by training a sparse linear convolutional NN to learn the linear term and a dense fully-connected nonlinear NN to learn the nonlinear term. This is in contrast with the standard neural ODE which involves training only a single NN for learning the RHS. We apply this setup to the viscous Burgers equation, which exhibits shocked behavior, and show better short-time tracking and prediction of the energy spectrum at high wavenumbers than a standard neural ODE. We also find that the stabilized neural ODE models are much more robust to noisy initial conditions than the standard neural ODE approach. We also apply this method to chaotic trajectories of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation. In this case, stabilized neural ODEs keep long-time trajectories on the attractor, and are highly robust to noisy initial conditions, while standard neural ODEs fail at achieving either of these results. We conclude by demonstrating how stabilizing neural ODEs provide a natural extension for use in reduced-order modeling by projecting the dynamics onto the eigenvectors of the learned linear term.

Sparsity-Inducing Categorical Prior Improves Robustness of the Information Bottleneck

The information bottleneck framework provides a systematic approach to learn representations that compress nuisance information in inputs and extract semantically meaningful information about the predictions. However, the choice of the prior distribution that fix the dimensionality across all the data can restrict the flexibility of this approach to learn robust representations. We present a novel sparsity-inducing spike-slab prior that uses sparsity as a mechanism to provide flexibility that allows each data point to learn its own dimension distribution. In addition, it provides a mechanism to learn a joint distribution of the latent variable and the sparsity. Thus, unlike other approaches, it can account for the full uncertainty in the latent space. Through a series of experiments using in-distribution and out-of-distribution learning scenarios on the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST data we show that the proposed approach improves the accuracy and robustness compared with the traditional fixed -imensional priors as well as other sparsity-induction mechanisms proposed in the literature.

Multi-fidelity reinforcement learning framework for shape optimization

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is a promising outer-loop intelligence paradigm which can deploy problem solving strategies for complex tasks. Consequently, DRL has been utilized for several scientific applications, specifically in cases where classical optimization or control methods are limited. One key limitation of conventional DRL methods is their episode-hungry nature which proves to be a bottleneck for tasks which involve costly evaluations of a numerical forward model. In this article, we address this limitation of DRL by introducing a controlled transfer learning framework that leverages a multi-fidelity simulation setting. Our strategy is deployed for an airfoil shape optimization problem at high Reynolds numbers, where our framework can learn an optimal policy for generating efficient airfoil shapes by gathering knowledge from multi-fidelity environments and reduces computational costs by over 30\%. Furthermore, our formulation promotes policy exploration and generalization to new environments, thereby preventing over-fitting to data from solely one fidelity. Our results demonstrate this framework's applicability to other scientific DRL scenarios where multi-fidelity environments can be used for policy learning.

A data-centric weak supervised learning for highway traffic incident detection

Using the data from loop detector sensors for near-real-time detection of traffic incidents in highways is crucial to averting major traffic congestion. While recent supervised machine learning methods offer solutions to incident detection by leveraging human-labeled incident data, the false alarm rate is often too high to be used in practice. Specifically, the inconsistency in the human labeling of the incidents significantly affects the performance of supervised learning models. To that end, we focus on a data-centric approach to improve the accuracy and reduce the false alarm rate of traffic incident detection on highways. We develop a weak supervised learning workflow to generate high-quality training labels for the incident data without the ground truth labels, and we use those generated labels in the supervised learning setup for final detection. This approach comprises three stages. First, we introduce a data preprocessing and curation pipeline that processes traffic sensor data to generate high-quality training data through leveraging labeling functions, which can be domain knowledge-related or simple heuristic rules. Second, we evaluate the training data generated by weak supervision using three supervised learning models -- random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and a support vector machine ensemble -- and long short-term memory classifiers. The results show that the accuracy of all of the models improves significantly after using the training data generated by weak supervision. Third, we develop an online real-time incident detection approach that leverages the model ensemble and the uncertainty quantification while detecting incidents. Overall, we show that our proposed weak supervised learning workflow achieves a high incident detection rate (0.90) and low false alarm rate (0.08).

Modeling Design and Control Problems Involving Neural Network Surrogates

We consider nonlinear optimization problems that involve surrogate models represented by neural networks. We demonstrate first how to directly embed neural network evaluation into optimization models, highlight a difficulty with this approach that can prevent convergence, and then characterize stationarity of such models. We then present two alternative formulations of these problems in the specific case of feedforward neural networks with ReLU activation: as a mixed-integer optimization problem and as a mathematical program with complementarity constraints. For the latter formulation we prove that stationarity at a point for this problem corresponds to stationarity of the embedded formulation. Each of these formulations may be solved with state-of-the-art optimization methods, and we show how to obtain good initial feasible solutions for these methods. We compare our formulations on three practical applications arising in the design and control of combustion engines, in the generation of adversarial attacks on classifier networks, and in the determination of optimal flows in an oil well network.