Optimizing Task Completion Time Updates Using POMDPs

Managing announced task completion times is a fundamental control problem in project management. While extensive research exists on estimating task durations and task scheduling, the problem of when and how to update completion times communicated to stakeholders remains understudied. Organizations must balance announcement accuracy against the costs of frequent timeline updates, which can erode stakeholder trust and trigger costly replanning. Despite the prevalence of this problem, current approaches rely on static predictions or ad-hoc policies that fail to account for the sequential nature of announcement management. In this paper, we formulate the task announcement problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) where the control policy must decide when to update announced completion times based on noisy observations of true task completion. Since most state variables (current time and previous announcements) are fully observable, we leverage the Mixed Observability MDP (MOMDP) framework to enable more efficient policy optimization. Our reward structure captures the dual costs of announcement errors and update frequency, enabling synthesis of optimal announcement control policies. Using off-the-shelf solvers, we generate policies that act as feedback controllers, adaptively managing announcements based on belief state evolution. Simulation results demonstrate significant improvements in both accuracy and announcement stability compared to baseline strategies, achieving up to 75\% reduction in unnecessary updates while maintaining or improving prediction accuracy.

A Semi-Decentralized Approach to Multiagent Control

We introduce an expressive framework and algorithms for the semi-decentralized control of cooperative agents in environments with communication uncertainty. Whereas semi-Markov control admits a distribution over time for agent actions, semi-Markov communication, or what we refer to as semi-decentralization, gives a distribution over time for what actions and observations agents can store in their histories. We extend semi-decentralization to the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). The resulting SDec-POMDP unifies decentralized and multiagent POMDPs and several existing explicit communication mechanisms. We present recursive small-step semi-decentralized A* (RS-SDA*), an exact algorithm for generating optimal SDec-POMDP policies. RS-SDA* is evaluated on semi-decentralized versions of several standard benchmarks and a maritime medical evacuation scenario. This paper provides a well-defined theoretical foundation for exploring many classes of multiagent communication problems through the lens of semi-decentralization.

The FABRIC Strategy for Verifying Neural Feedback Systems

Forward reachability analysis is a dominant approach for verifying reach-avoid specifications in neural feedback systems, i.e., dynamical systems controlled by neural networks, and a number of directions have been proposed and studied. In contrast, far less attention has been given to backward reachability analysis for these systems, in part because of the limited scalability of known techniques. In this work, we begin to address this gap by introducing new algorithms for computing both over- and underapproximations of backward reachable sets for nonlinear neural feedback systems. We also describe and implement an integration of these backward reachability techniques with existing ones for forward analysis. We call the resulting algorithm Forward and Backward Reachability Integration for Certification (FaBRIC). We evaluate our algorithms on a representative set of benchmarks and show that they significantly outperform the prior state of the art.

World Model Failure Classification and Anomaly Detection for Autonomous Inspection

Autonomous inspection robots for monitoring industrial sites can reduce costs and risks associated with human-led inspection. However, accurate readings can be challenging due to occlusions, limited viewpoints, or unexpected environmental conditions. We propose a hybrid framework that combines supervised failure classification with anomaly detection, enabling classification of inspection tasks as a success, known failure, or anomaly (i.e., out-of-distribution) case. Our approach uses a world model backbone with compressed video inputs. This policy-agnostic, distribution-free framework determines classifications based on two decision functions set by conformal prediction (CP) thresholds before a human observer does. We evaluate the framework on gauge inspection feeds collected from office and industrial sites and demonstrate real-time deployment on a Boston Dynamics Spot. Experiments show over 90% accuracy in distinguishing between successes, failures, and OOD cases, with classifications occurring earlier than a human observer. These results highlight the potential for robust, anticipatory failure detection in autonomous inspection tasks or as a feedback signal for model training to assess and improve the quality of training data. Project website: https://autoinspection-classification.github.io

A New Strategy for Verifying Reach-Avoid Specifications in Neural Feedback Systems

Forward reachability analysis is the predominant approach for verifying reach-avoid properties in neural feedback systems (dynamical systems controlled by neural networks). This dominance stems from the limited scalability of existing backward reachability methods. In this work, we introduce new algorithms that compute both over- and under-approximations of backward reachable sets for such systems. We further integrate these backward algorithms with established forward analysis techniques to yield a unified verification framework for neural feedback systems.

Learning to Trust: Bayesian Adaptation to Varying Suggester Reliability in Sequential Decision Making

Autonomous agents operating in sequential decision-making tasks under uncertainty can benefit from external action suggestions, which provide valuable guidance but inherently vary in reliability. Existing methods for incorporating such advice typically assume static and known suggester quality parameters, limiting practical deployment. We introduce a framework that dynamically learns and adapts to varying suggester reliability in partially observable environments. First, we integrate suggester quality directly into the agent's belief representation, enabling agents to infer and adjust their reliance on suggestions through Bayesian inference over suggester types. Second, we introduce an explicit ``ask'' action allowing agents to strategically request suggestions at critical moments, balancing informational gains against acquisition costs. Experimental evaluation demonstrates robust performance across varying suggester qualities, adaptation to changing reliability, and strategic management of suggestion requests. This work provides a foundation for adaptive human-agent collaboration by addressing suggestion uncertainty in uncertain environments.

Robust Planning for Autonomous Vehicles with Diffusion-Based Failure Samplers

High-risk traffic zones such as intersections are a major cause of collisions. This study leverages deep generative models to enhance the safety of autonomous vehicles in an intersection context. We train a 1000-step denoising diffusion probabilistic model to generate collision-causing sensor noise sequences for an autonomous vehicle navigating a four-way intersection based on the current relative position and velocity of an intruder. Using the generative adversarial architecture, the 1000-step model is distilled into a single-step denoising diffusion model which demonstrates fast inference speed while maintaining similar sampling quality. We demonstrate one possible application of the single-step model in building a robust planner for the autonomous vehicle. The planner uses the single-step model to efficiently sample potential failure cases based on the currently measured traffic state to inform its decision-making. Through simulation experiments, the robust planner demonstrates significantly lower failure rate and delay rate compared with the baseline Intelligent Driver Model controller.

Diffusion Models for Safety Validation of Autonomous Driving Systems

Safety validation of autonomous driving systems is extremely challenging due to the high risks and costs of real-world testing as well as the rarity and diversity of potential failures. To address these challenges, we train a denoising diffusion model to generate potential failure cases of an autonomous vehicle given any initial traffic state. Experiments on a four-way intersection problem show that in a variety of scenarios, the diffusion model can generate realistic failure samples while capturing a wide variety of potential failures. Our model does not require any external training dataset, can perform training and inference with modest computing resources, and does not assume any prior knowledge of the system under test, with applicability to safety validation for traffic intersections.

DB-KSVD: Scalable Alternating Optimization for Disentangling High-Dimensional Embedding Spaces

Dictionary learning has recently emerged as a promising approach for mechanistic interpretability of large transformer models. Disentangling high-dimensional transformer embeddings, however, requires algorithms that scale to high-dimensional data with large sample sizes. Recent work has explored sparse autoencoders (SAEs) for this problem. However, SAEs use a simple linear encoder to solve the sparse encoding subproblem, which is known to be NP-hard. It is therefore interesting to understand whether this structure is sufficient to find good solutions to the dictionary learning problem or if a more sophisticated algorithm could find better solutions. In this work, we propose Double-Batch KSVD (DB-KSVD), a scalable dictionary learning algorithm that adapts the classic KSVD algorithm. DB-KSVD is informed by the rich theoretical foundations of KSVD but scales to datasets with millions of samples and thousands of dimensions. We demonstrate the efficacy of DB-KSVD by disentangling embeddings of the Gemma-2-2B model and evaluating on six metrics from the SAEBench benchmark, where we achieve competitive results when compared to established approaches based on SAEs. By matching SAE performance with an entirely different optimization approach, our results suggest that (i) SAEs do find strong solutions to the dictionary learning problem and (ii) that traditional optimization approaches can be scaled to the required problem sizes, offering a promising avenue for further research. We provide an implementation of DB-KSVD at https://github.com/RomeoV/KSVD.jl.

Scalable Importance Sampling in High Dimensions with Low-Rank Mixture Proposals

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo technique for efficiently estimating the likelihood of rare events by biasing the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By drawing weighted samples from a learned proposal distribution, importance sampling allows for more sample-efficient estimation of rare events or tails of distributions. A common choice of proposal density is a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). However, estimating full-rank GMM covariance matrices in high dimensions is a challenging task due to numerical instabilities. In this work, we propose using mixtures of probabilistic principal component analyzers (MPPCA) as the parametric proposal density for importance sampling methods. MPPCA models are a type of low-rank mixture model that can be fit quickly using expectation-maximization, even in high-dimensional spaces. We validate our method on three simulated systems, demonstrating consistent gains in sample efficiency and quality of failure distribution characterization.