Scaling Storm-Resolving Atmospheric AI Simulation to the Entire Planet

Kilometer-scale convection shapes precipitation extremes, tropical organization, and cloud feedbacks, but most global atmospheric models approximate these processes at 25-100 km resolution. Global storm-resolving physics models resolve convective systems explicitly, but at a cost -- roughly one MWh per simulated day on exascale supercomputers -- that limits long-duration simulation. We introduce STRATA (Storm-resolving Tile-based autoRegressive Atmosphere Transformer Architecture), the first autoregressive AI emulator for global storm-resolving atmospheric dynamics. STRATA is trained on the highest-resolution atmospheric dataset yet used for global AI emulation: 17 days of SCREAM physics-model output at 4.9-km resolution (~25 million grid cells) sampled every 10 minutes. Our central premise is that on 10-minute timescales atmospheric dynamics are predominantly local, so training on small spatial tiles trades scarce global temporal samples for abundant local spatial samples and enables global rollout via overlapping-tile blending. STRATA combines 3D patch embedding and local 3D neighborhood attention, a novel Stereographic Rotary Position Embedding (StereoRoPE) for grid-invariant encoding, and a pixel-space de-aliasing decoder that suppresses patch-scale rollout artifacts. An iso-FLOP scaling study reveals that km-scale emulation requires ~10x more FLOPs per grid point than coarse-resolution AI weather models, consistent with the higher information density of convective-scale dynamics. Trained on only 17 days of data, STRATA produces stable 24-hour global rollouts with realistic km-scale dynamics across diverse regimes, though large-scale biases develop with lead time. It achieves 48 simulation days per megawatt-hour -- about 50 times better energy efficiency than the SCREAM physics model -- and 741 simulated days per wall-clock day at 512 H100 GPUs. Code and dataset are publicly available.

Demystifying Data-Driven Probabilistic Medium-Range Weather Forecasting

The recent revolution in data-driven methods for weather forecasting has lead to a fragmented landscape of complex, bespoke architectures and training strategies, obscuring the fundamental drivers of forecast accuracy. Here, we demonstrate that state-of-the-art probabilistic skill requires neither intricate architectural constraints nor specialized training heuristics. We introduce a scalable framework for learning multi-scale atmospheric dynamics by combining a directly downsampled latent space with a history-conditioned local projector that resolves high-resolution physics. We find that our framework design is robust to the choice of probabilistic estimator, seamlessly supporting stochastic interpolants, diffusion models, and CRPS-based ensemble training. Validated against the Integrated Forecasting System and the deep learning probabilistic model GenCast, our framework achieves statistically significant improvements on most of the variables. These results suggest scaling a general-purpose model is sufficient for state-of-the-art medium-range prediction, eliminating the need for tailored training recipes and proving effective across the full spectrum of probabilistic frameworks.