MedGNN: Capturing the Links Between Urban Characteristics and Medical Prescriptions

Understanding how urban socio-demographic and environmental factors relate with health is essential for public health and urban planning. However, traditional statistical methods struggle with nonlinear effects, while machine learning models often fail to capture geographical (nearby areas being more similar) and topological (unequal connectivity between places) effects in an interpretable way. To address this, we propose MedGNN, a spatio-topologically explicit framework that constructs a 2-hop spatial graph, integrating positional and locational node embeddings with urban characteristics in a graph neural network. Applied to MEDSAT, a comprehensive dataset covering over 150 environmental and socio-demographic factors and six prescription outcomes (depression, anxiety, diabetes, hypertension, asthma, and opioids) across 4,835 Greater London neighborhoods, MedGNN improved predictions by over 25% on average compared to baseline methods. Using depression prescriptions as a case study, we analyzed graph embeddings via geographical principal component analysis, identifying findings that: align with prior research (e.g., higher antidepressant prescriptions among older and White populations), contribute to ongoing debates (e.g., greenery linked to higher and NO2 to lower prescriptions), and warrant further study (e.g., canopy evaporation correlated with fewer prescriptions). These results demonstrate MedGNN's potential, and more broadly, of carefully applied machine learning, to advance transdisciplinary public health research.