Intelligent model for offshore China sea fog forecasting

Accurate and timely prediction of sea fog is very important for effectively managing maritime and coastal economic activities. Given the intricate nature and inherent variability of sea fog, traditional numerical and statistical forecasting methods are often proven inadequate. This study aims to develop an advanced sea fog forecasting method embedded in a numerical weather prediction model using the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) coastal area as a case study. Prior to training our machine learning model, we employ a time-lagged correlation analysis technique to identify key predictors and decipher the underlying mechanisms driving sea fog occurrence. In addition, we implement ensemble learning and a focal loss function to address the issue of imbalanced data, thereby enhancing the predictive ability of our model. To verify the accuracy of our method, we evaluate its performance using a comprehensive dataset spanning one year, which encompasses both weather station observations and historical forecasts. Remarkably, our machine learning-based approach surpasses the predictive performance of two conventional methods, the weather research and forecasting nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (WRF-NMM) and the algorithm developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL). Specifically, in regard to predicting sea fog with a visibility of less than or equal to 1 km with a lead time of 60 hours, our methodology achieves superior results by increasing the probability of detection (POD) while simultaneously reducing the false alarm ratio (FAR).

Unsupervised Anomaly Detection with Local-Sensitive VQVAE and Global-Sensitive Transformers

Unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) has been widely implemented in industrial and medical applications, which reduces the cost of manual annotation and improves efficiency in disease diagnosis. Recently, deep auto-encoder with its variants has demonstrated its advantages in many UAD scenarios. Training on the normal data, these models are expected to locate anomalies by producing higher reconstruction error for the abnormal areas than the normal ones. However, this assumption does not always hold because of the uncontrollable generalization capability. To solve this problem, we present LSGS, a method that builds on Vector Quantised-Variational Autoencoder (VQVAE) with a novel aggregated codebook and transformers with global attention. In this work, the VQVAE focus on feature extraction and reconstruction of images, and the transformers fit the manifold and locate anomalies in the latent space. Then, leveraging the generated encoding sequences that conform to a normal distribution, we can reconstruct a more accurate image for locating the anomalies. Experiments on various datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.