Large language models surpass human experts in predicting neuroscience results

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. To evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs were confident in their predictions, they were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where humans and LLMs team together to make discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience-specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavors.

Bridging Associative Memory and Probabilistic Modeling

Associative memory and probabilistic modeling are two fundamental topics in artificial intelligence. The first studies recurrent neural networks designed to denoise, complete and retrieve data, whereas the second studies learning and sampling from probability distributions. Based on the observation that associative memory's energy functions can be seen as probabilistic modeling's negative log likelihoods, we build a bridge between the two that enables useful flow of ideas in both directions. We showcase four examples: First, we propose new energy-based models that flexibly adapt their energy functions to new in-context datasets, an approach we term \textit{in-context learning of energy functions}. Second, we propose two new associative memory models: one that dynamically creates new memories as necessitated by the training data using Bayesian nonparametrics, and another that explicitly computes proportional memory assignments using the evidence lower bound. Third, using tools from associative memory, we analytically and numerically characterize the memory capacity of Gaussian kernel density estimators, a widespread tool in probababilistic modeling. Fourth, we study a widespread implementation choice in transformers -- normalization followed by self attention -- to show it performs clustering on the hypersphere. Altogether, this work urges further exchange of useful ideas between these two continents of artificial intelligence.

Towards an Understanding of Stepwise Inference in Transformers: A Synthetic Graph Navigation Model

Stepwise inference protocols, such as scratchpads and chain-of-thought, help language models solve complex problems by decomposing them into a sequence of simpler subproblems. Despite the significant gain in performance achieved via these protocols, the underlying mechanisms of stepwise inference have remained elusive. To address this, we propose to study autoregressive Transformer models on a synthetic task that embodies the multi-step nature of problems where stepwise inference is generally most useful. Specifically, we define a graph navigation problem wherein a model is tasked with traversing a path from a start to a goal node on the graph. Despite is simplicity, we find we can empirically reproduce and analyze several phenomena observed at scale: (i) the stepwise inference reasoning gap, the cause of which we find in the structure of the training data; (ii) a diversity-accuracy tradeoff in model generations as sampling temperature varies; (iii) a simplicity bias in the model's output; and (iv) compositional generalization and a primacy bias with in-context exemplars. Overall, our work introduces a grounded, synthetic framework for studying stepwise inference and offers mechanistic hypotheses that can lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.

How Capable Can a Transformer Become? A Study on Synthetic, Interpretable Tasks

Transformers trained on huge text corpora exhibit a remarkable set of capabilities, e.g., performing simple logical operations. Given the inherent compositional nature of language, one can expect the model to learn to compose these capabilities, potentially yielding a combinatorial explosion of what operations it can perform on an input. Motivated by the above, we aim to assess in this paper "how capable can a transformer become?". Specifically, we train autoregressive Transformer models on a data-generating process that involves compositions of a set of well-defined monolithic capabilities. Through a series of extensive and systematic experiments on this data-generating process, we show that: (1) autoregressive Transformers can learn compositional structures from the training data and generalize to exponentially or even combinatorially many functions; (2) composing functions by generating intermediate outputs is more effective at generalizing to unseen compositions, compared to generating no intermediate outputs; (3) the training data has a significant impact on the model's ability to compose unseen combinations of functions; and (4) the attention layers in the latter half of the model are critical to compositionality.

Self-Supervised Learning of Representations for Space Generates Multi-Modular Grid Cells

To solve the spatial problems of mapping, localization and navigation, the mammalian lineage has developed striking spatial representations. One important spatial representation is the Nobel-prize winning grid cells: neurons that represent self-location, a local and aperiodic quantity, with seemingly bizarre non-local and spatially periodic activity patterns of a few discrete periods. Why has the mammalian lineage learnt this peculiar grid representation? Mathematical analysis suggests that this multi-periodic representation has excellent properties as an algebraic code with high capacity and intrinsic error-correction, but to date, there is no satisfactory synthesis of core principles that lead to multi-modular grid cells in deep recurrent neural networks. In this work, we begin by identifying key insights from four families of approaches to answering the grid cell question: coding theory, dynamical systems, function optimization and supervised deep learning. We then leverage our insights to propose a new approach that combines the strengths of all four approaches. Our approach is a self-supervised learning (SSL) framework - including data, data augmentations, loss functions and a network architecture - motivated from a normative perspective, without access to supervised position information or engineering of particular readout representations as needed in previous approaches. We show that multiple grid cell modules can emerge in networks trained on our SSL framework and that the networks and emergent representations generalize well outside their training distribution. This work contains insights for neuroscientists interested in the origins of grid cells as well as machine learning researchers interested in novel SSL frameworks.

Growing Brains: Co-emergence of Anatomical and Functional Modularity in Recurrent Neural Networks

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) trained on compositional tasks can exhibit functional modularity, in which neurons can be clustered by activity similarity and participation in shared computational subtasks. Unlike brains, these RNNs do not exhibit anatomical modularity, in which functional clustering is correlated with strong recurrent coupling and spatial localization of functional clusters. Contrasting with functional modularity, which can be ephemerally dependent on the input, anatomically modular networks form a robust substrate for solving the same subtasks in the future. To examine whether it is possible to grow brain-like anatomical modularity, we apply a recent machine learning method, brain-inspired modular training (BIMT), to a network being trained to solve a set of compositional cognitive tasks. We find that functional and anatomical clustering emerge together, such that functionally similar neurons also become spatially localized and interconnected. Moreover, compared to standard $L_1$ or no regularization settings, the model exhibits superior performance by optimally balancing task performance and network sparsity. In addition to achieving brain-like organization in RNNs, our findings also suggest that BIMT holds promise for applications in neuromorphic computing and enhancing the interpretability of neural network architectures.

Double Descent Demystified: Identifying, Interpreting & Ablating the Sources of a Deep Learning Puzzle

Double descent is a surprising phenomenon in machine learning, in which as the number of model parameters grows relative to the number of data, test error drops as models grow ever larger into the highly overparameterized (data undersampled) regime. This drop in test error flies against classical learning theory on overfitting and has arguably underpinned the success of large models in machine learning. This non-monotonic behavior of test loss depends on the number of data, the dimensionality of the data and the number of model parameters. Here, we briefly describe double descent, then provide an explanation of why double descent occurs in an informal and approachable manner, requiring only familiarity with linear algebra and introductory probability. We provide visual intuition using polynomial regression, then mathematically analyze double descent with ordinary linear regression and identify three interpretable factors that, when simultaneously all present, together create double descent. We demonstrate that double descent occurs on real data when using ordinary linear regression, then demonstrate that double descent does not occur when any of the three factors are ablated. We use this understanding to shed light on recent observations in nonlinear models concerning superposition and double descent. Code is publicly available.