On the Burden of Achieving Fairness in Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

Pause and Reflect: Conformal Aggregation for Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning with self-consistency improves performance by aggregating multiple sampled reasoning paths. In this setting, correctness is no longer tied to a single reasoning trace but to the aggregation rule over a pool of candidate paths, making aggregation uncertainty the central challenge. This issue is critical where confidently incorrect answers are far more costly than abstentions. We introduce a conformal procedure for CoT reasoning that directly addresses aggregation uncertainty. Our approach replaces majority voting with weighted score aggregation over reasoning paths and calibrates an abstention rule using conformal risk control. This approach leads to finite-sample guarantees on the confident-error rate--the probability that the system answers and is wrong. We further identify score separability as the key condition under which abstention provably improves selective accuracy, and derive closed-form expressions that predict accuracy gains from calibration data alone. The method is fully inference-time, and requires no retraining. Across four benchmarks, four open-source models, and three score classes, realized confident-error rates are consistent with the prescribed targets up to calibration-split and test-set variability. Our method achieves $90.1\%$ selective accuracy on GSM8K by abstaining on less than $5\%$ of problems, compared with $82\%$ accuracy under majority-voting baseline.

Beyond Procedure: Substantive Fairness in Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation (procedural fairness), we analyze the holistic decision-making pipeline to evaluate substantive fairness-the equity of downstream outcomes. Theoretically, we derive an upper bound that decomposes prediction-set size disparity into interpretable components, clarifying how label-clustered CP helps control method-driven contributions to unfairness. To facilitate scalable empirical analysis, we introduce an LLM-in-the-loop evaluator that approximates human assessment of substantive fairness across diverse modalities. Our experiments reveal that label-clustered CP variants consistently deliver superior substantive fairness. Finally, we empirically show that equalized set sizes, rather than coverage, strongly correlate with improved substantive fairness, enabling practitioners to design more fair CP systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/llm-in-the-loop-conformal-fairness.

Tiny Noise-Robust Voice Activity Detector for Voice Assistants

Voice Activity Detection (VAD) in the presence of background noise remains a challenging problem in speech processing. Accurate VAD is essential in automatic speech recognition, voice-to-text, conversational agents, etc, where noise can severely degrade the performance. A modern application includes the voice assistant, specially mounted on Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT) devices such as cell phones, smart glasses, earbuds, etc, where the voice signal includes background noise. Therefore, VAD modules must remain light-weight due to their practical on-device limitation. The existing models often struggle with low signal-to-noise ratios across diverse acoustic environments. A simple VAD often detects human voice in a clean environment, but struggles to detect the human voice in noisy conditions. We propose a noise-robust VAD that comprises a light-weight VAD, with data pre-processing and post-processing added modules to handle the background noise. This approach significantly enhances the VAD accuracy in noisy environments and requires neither a larger model, nor fine-tuning. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves a notable improvement compared to baselines, particularly in environments with high background noise interference. This modified VAD additionally improving clean speech detection.

Rethinking Post-Training Quantization: Introducing a Statistical Pre-Calibration Approach

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly computationally complex, developing efficient deployment strategies, such as quantization, becomes crucial. State-of-the-art Post-training Quantization (PTQ) techniques often rely on calibration processes to maintain the accuracy of these models. However, while these calibration techniques can enhance performance in certain domains, they may not be as effective in others. This paper aims to draw attention to robust statistical approaches that can mitigate such issues. We propose a weight-adaptive PTQ method that can be considered a precursor to calibration-based PTQ methods, guiding the quantization process to preserve the distribution of weights by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the quantized weights and the originally trained weights. This minimization ensures that the quantized model retains the Shannon information content of the original model to a great extent, guaranteeing robust and efficient deployment across many tasks. As such, our proposed approach can perform on par with most common calibration-based PTQ methods, establishing a new pre-calibration step for further adjusting the quantized weights with calibration. We show that our pre-calibration results achieve the same accuracy as some existing calibration-based PTQ methods on various LLMs.

fastHDMI: Fast Mutual Information Estimation for High-Dimensional Data

In this paper, we introduce fastHDMI, a Python package designed for efficient variable screening in high-dimensional datasets, particularly neuroimaging data. This work pioneers the application of three mutual information estimation methods for neuroimaging variable selection, a novel approach implemented via fastHDMI. These advancements enhance our ability to analyze the complex structures of neuroimaging datasets, providing improved tools for variable selection in high-dimensional spaces. Using the preprocessed ABIDE dataset, we evaluate the performance of these methods through extensive simulations. The tests cover a range of conditions, including linear and nonlinear associations, as well as continuous and binary outcomes. Our results highlight the superiority of the FFTKDE-based mutual information estimation for feature screening in continuous nonlinear outcomes, while binning-based methods outperform others for binary outcomes with nonlinear probability preimages. For linear simulations, both Pearson correlation and FFTKDE-based methods show comparable performance for continuous outcomes, while Pearson excels in binary outcomes with linear probability preimages. A comprehensive case study using the ABIDE dataset further demonstrates fastHDMI's practical utility, showcasing the predictive power of models built from variables selected using our screening techniques. This research affirms the computational efficiency and methodological strength of fastHDMI, significantly enriching the toolkit available for neuroimaging analysis.

OAC: Output-adaptive Calibration for Accurate Post-training Quantization

Deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) has major computational costs, due to their rapidly expanding size. Compression of LLMs reduces the memory footprint, latency, and energy required for their inference. Post-training Quantization (PTQ) techniques have been developed to compress LLMs while avoiding expensive re-training. Most PTQ approaches formulate the quantization error based on a layer-wise $\ell_2$ loss, ignoring the model output. Then, each layer is calibrated using its layer-wise Hessian to update the weights towards minimizing the $\ell_2$ quantization error. The Hessian is also used for detecting the most salient weights to quantization. Such PTQ approaches are prone to accuracy drop in low-precision quantization. We propose Output-adaptive Calibration (OAC) to incorporate the model output in the calibration process. We formulate the quantization error based on the distortion of the output cross-entropy loss. OAC approximates the output-adaptive Hessian for each layer under reasonable assumptions to reduce the computational complexity. The output-adaptive Hessians are used to update the weight matrices and detect the salient weights towards maintaining the model output. Our proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines such as SpQR and BiLLM, especially, at extreme low-precision (2-bit and binary) quantization.

AdpQ: A Zero-shot Calibration Free Adaptive Post Training Quantization Method for LLMs

The ever-growing computational complexity of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates efficient deployment strategies. The current state-of-the-art approaches for Post-training Quantization (PTQ) often require calibration to achieve the desired accuracy. This paper presents AdpQ, a novel zero-shot adaptive PTQ method for LLMs that achieves the state-of-the-art performance in low-precision quantization (e.g. 3-bit) without requiring any calibration data. Inspired by Adaptive LASSO regression model, our proposed approach tackles the challenge of outlier activations by separating salient weights using an adaptive soft-thresholding method. Guided by Adaptive LASSO, this method ensures that the quantized weights distribution closely follows the originally trained weights and eliminates the need for calibration data entirely, setting our method apart from popular approaches such as SpQR and AWQ. Furthermore, our method offers an additional benefit in terms of privacy preservation by eliminating any calibration or training data. We also delve deeper into the information-theoretic underpinnings of the proposed method. We demonstrate that it leverages the Adaptive LASSO to minimize the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the quantized weights and the originally trained weights. This minimization ensures the quantized model retains the Shannon information content of the original model to a great extent, guaranteeing efficient deployment without sacrificing accuracy or information. Our results achieve the same accuracy as the existing methods on various LLM benchmarks while the quantization time is reduced by at least 10x, solidifying our contribution to efficient and privacy-preserving LLM deployment.

Mitigating Outlier Activations in Low-Precision Fine-Tuning of Language Models

Low-precision fine-tuning of language models has gained prominence as a cost-effective and energy-efficient approach to deploying large-scale models in various applications. However, this approach is susceptible to the existence of outlier values in activation. The outlier values in the activation can negatively affect the performance of fine-tuning language models in the low-precision regime since they affect the scaling factor and thus make representing smaller values harder. This paper investigates techniques for mitigating outlier activation in low-precision integer fine-tuning of the language models. Our proposed novel approach enables us to represent the outlier activation values in 8-bit integers instead of floating-point (FP16) values. The benefit of using integers for outlier values is that it enables us to use operator tiling to avoid performing 16-bit integer matrix multiplication to address this problem effectively. We provide theoretical analysis and supporting experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving the robustness and performance of low-precision fine-tuned language models.

Statistical Hardware Design With Multi-model Active Learning

With the rising complexity of numerous novel applications that serve our modern society comes the strong need to design efficient computing platforms. Designing efficient hardware is, however, a complex multi-objective problem that deals with multiple parameters and their interactions. Given that there are a large number of parameters and objectives involved in hardware design, synthesizing all possible combinations is not a feasible method to find the optimal solution. One promising approach to tackle this problem is statistical modeling of a desired hardware performance. Here, we propose a model-based active learning approach to solve this problem. Our proposed method uses Bayesian models to characterize various aspects of hardware performance. We also use transfer learning and Gaussian regression bootstrapping techniques in conjunction with active learning to create more accurate models. Our proposed statistical modeling method provides hardware models that are sufficiently accurate to perform design space exploration as well as performance prediction simultaneously. We use our proposed method to perform design space exploration and performance prediction for various hardware setups, such as micro-architecture design and OpenCL kernels for FPGA targets. Our experiments show that the number of samples required to create performance models significantly reduces while maintaining the predictive power of our proposed statistical models. For instance, in our performance prediction setting, the proposed method needs 65% fewer samples to create the model, and in the design space exploration setting, our proposed method can find the best parameter settings by exploring less than 50 samples.