Evaluating Frontier Models for Dangerous Capabilities

To understand the risks posed by a new AI system, we must understand what it can and cannot do. Building on prior work, we introduce a programme of new "dangerous capability" evaluations and pilot them on Gemini 1.0 models. Our evaluations cover four areas: (1) persuasion and deception; (2) cyber-security; (3) self-proliferation; and (4) self-reasoning. We do not find evidence of strong dangerous capabilities in the models we evaluated, but we flag early warning signs. Our goal is to help advance a rigorous science of dangerous capability evaluation, in preparation for future models.

Revisiting Dynamic Evaluation: Online Adaptation for Large Language Models

We consider the problem of online fine tuning the parameters of a language model at test time, also known as dynamic evaluation. While it is generally known that this approach improves the overall predictive performance, especially when considering distributional shift between training and evaluation data, we here emphasize the perspective that online adaptation turns parameters into temporally changing states and provides a form of context-length extension with memory in weights, more in line with the concept of memory in neuroscience. We pay particular attention to the speed of adaptation (in terms of sample efficiency),sensitivity to the overall distributional drift, and the computational overhead for performing gradient computations and parameter updates. Our empirical study provides insights on when online adaptation is particularly interesting. We highlight that with online adaptation the conceptual distinction between in-context learning and fine tuning blurs: both are methods to condition the model on previously observed tokens.

Learning Universal Predictors

Meta-learning has emerged as a powerful approach to train neural networks to learn new tasks quickly from limited data. Broad exposure to different tasks leads to versatile representations enabling general problem solving. But, what are the limits of meta-learning? In this work, we explore the potential of amortizing the most powerful universal predictor, namely Solomonoff Induction (SI), into neural networks via leveraging meta-learning to its limits. We use Universal Turing Machines (UTMs) to generate training data used to expose networks to a broad range of patterns. We provide theoretical analysis of the UTM data generation processes and meta-training protocols. We conduct comprehensive experiments with neural architectures (e.g. LSTMs, Transformers) and algorithmic data generators of varying complexity and universality. Our results suggest that UTM data is a valuable resource for meta-learning, and that it can be used to train neural networks capable of learning universal prediction strategies.

Dynamic Knowledge Injection for AIXI Agents

Prior approximations of AIXI, a Bayesian optimality notion for general reinforcement learning, can only approximate AIXI's Bayesian environment model using an a-priori defined set of models. This is a fundamental source of epistemic uncertainty for the agent in settings where the existence of systematic bias in the predefined model class cannot be resolved by simply collecting more data from the environment. We address this issue in the context of Human-AI teaming by considering a setup where additional knowledge for the agent in the form of new candidate models arrives from a human operator in an online fashion. We introduce a new agent called DynamicHedgeAIXI that maintains an exact Bayesian mixture over dynamically changing sets of models via a time-adaptive prior constructed from a variant of the Hedge algorithm. The DynamicHedgeAIXI agent is the richest direct approximation of AIXI known to date and comes with good performance guarantees. Experimental results on epidemic control on contact networks validates the agent's practical utility.

Distributional Bellman Operators over Mean Embeddings

We propose a novel algorithmic framework for distributional reinforcement learning, based on learning finite-dimensional mean embeddings of return distributions. We derive several new algorithms for dynamic programming and temporal-difference learning based on this framework, provide asymptotic convergence theory, and examine the empirical performance of the algorithms on a suite of tabular tasks. Further, we show that this approach can be straightforwardly combined with deep reinforcement learning, and obtain a new deep RL agent that improves over baseline distributional approaches on the Arcade Learning Environment.

Bridging Algorithmic Information Theory and Machine Learning: A New Approach to Kernel Learning

Machine Learning (ML) and Algorithmic Information Theory (AIT) look at Complexity from different points of view. We explore the interface between AIT and Kernel Methods (that are prevalent in ML) by adopting an AIT perspective on the problem of learning kernels from data, in kernel ridge regression, through the method of Sparse Kernel Flows. In particular, by looking at the differences and commonalities between Minimal Description Length (MDL) and Regularization in Machine Learning (RML), we prove that the method of Sparse Kernel Flows is the natural approach to adopt to learn kernels from data. This paper shows that it is not necessary to use the statistical route to derive Sparse Kernel Flows and that one can directly work with code-lengths and complexities that are concepts that show up in AIT.

Language Modeling Is Compression

It has long been established that predictive models can be transformed into lossless compressors and vice versa. Incidentally, in recent years, the machine learning community has focused on training increasingly large and powerful self-supervised (language) models. Since these large language models exhibit impressive predictive capabilities, they are well-positioned to be strong compressors. In this work, we advocate for viewing the prediction problem through the lens of compression and evaluate the compression capabilities of large (foundation) models. We show that large language models are powerful general-purpose predictors and that the compression viewpoint provides novel insights into scaling laws, tokenization, and in-context learning. For example, Chinchilla 70B, while trained primarily on text, compresses ImageNet patches to 43.4% and LibriSpeech samples to 16.4% of their raw size, beating domain-specific compressors like PNG (58.5%) or FLAC (30.3%), respectively. Finally, we show that the prediction-compression equivalence allows us to use any compressor (like gzip) to build a conditional generative model.

Line Search for Convex Minimization

Golden-section search and bisection search are the two main principled algorithms for 1d minimization of quasiconvex (unimodal) functions. The first one only uses function queries, while the second one also uses gradient queries. Other algorithms exist under much stronger assumptions, such as Newton's method. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no principled exact line search algorithm for general convex functions -- including piecewise-linear and max-compositions of convex functions -- that takes advantage of convexity. We propose two such algorithms: $\Delta$-Bisection is a variant of bisection search that uses (sub)gradient information and convexity to speed up convergence, while $\Delta$-Secant is a variant of golden-section search and uses only function queries. While bisection search reduces the $x$ interval by a factor 2 at every iteration, $\Delta$-Bisection reduces the (sometimes much) smaller $x^*$-gap $\Delta^x$ (the $x$ coordinates of $\Delta$) by at least a factor 2 at every iteration. Similarly, $\Delta$-Secant also reduces the $x^*$-gap by at least a factor 2 every second function query. Moreover, the $y^*$-gap $\Delta^y$ (the $y$ coordinates of $\Delta$) also provides a refined stopping criterion, which can also be used with other algorithms. Experiments on a few convex functions confirm that our algorithms are always faster than their quasiconvex counterparts, often by more than a factor 2. We further design a quasi-exact line search algorithm based on $\Delta$-Secant. It can be used with gradient descent as a replacement for backtracking line search, for which some parameters can be finicky to tune -- and we provide examples to this effect, on strongly-convex and smooth functions. We provide convergence guarantees, and confirm the efficiency of quasi-exact line search on a few single- and multivariate convex functions.

Combining a Meta-Policy and Monte-Carlo Planning for Scalable Type-Based Reasoning in Partially Observable Environments

The design of autonomous agents that can interact effectively with other agents without prior coordination is a core problem in multi-agent systems. Type-based reasoning methods achieve this by maintaining a belief over a set of potential behaviours for the other agents. However, current methods are limited in that they assume full observability of the state and actions of the other agent or do not scale efficiently to larger problems with longer planning horizons. Addressing these limitations, we propose Partially Observable Type-based Meta Monte-Carlo Planning (POTMMCP) - an online Monte-Carlo Tree Search based planning method for type-based reasoning in large partially observable environments. POTMMCP incorporates a novel meta-policy for guiding search and evaluating beliefs, allowing it to search more effectively to longer horizons using less planning time. We show that our method converges to the optimal solution in the limit and empirically demonstrate that it effectively adapts online to diverse sets of other agents across a range of environments. Comparisons with the state-of-the art method on problems with up to $10^{14}$ states and $10^8$ observations indicate that POTMMCP is able to compute better solutions significantly faster.

Levin Tree Search with Context Models

Levin Tree Search (LTS) is a search algorithm that makes use of a policy (a probability distribution over actions) and comes with a theoretical guarantee on the number of expansions before reaching a goal node, depending on the quality of the policy. This guarantee can be used as a loss function, which we call the LTS loss, to optimize neural networks representing the policy (LTS+NN). In this work we show that the neural network can be substituted with parameterized context models originating from the online compression literature (LTS+CM). We show that the LTS loss is convex under this new model, which allows for using standard convex optimization tools, and obtain convergence guarantees to the optimal parameters in an online setting for a given set of solution trajectories -- guarantees that cannot be provided for neural networks. The new LTS+CM algorithm compares favorably against LTS+NN on several benchmarks: Sokoban (Boxoban), The Witness, and the 24-Sliding Tile puzzle (STP). The difference is particularly large on STP, where LTS+NN fails to solve most of the test instances while LTS+CM solves each test instance in a fraction of a second. Furthermore, we show that LTS+CM is able to learn a policy that solves the Rubik's cube in only a few hundred expansions, which considerably improves upon previous machine learning techniques.