Predictive Analytics of Varieties of Potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms to predict the suitability of Russet potato clones for advancement in breeding trials. Leveraging data from manually collected trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely the multi-layer perceptron classifier (MLPC), histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVC), demonstrate consistent and significant results. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

Semi-Supervised Learning of Dynamical Systems with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations: A Teacher-Student Model Approach

Modeling dynamical systems is crucial for a wide range of tasks, but it remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics, limited observations, or lack of prior knowledge. Recently, data-driven approaches such as Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODE) have shown promising results by leveraging the expressive power of neural networks to model unknown dynamics. However, these approaches often suffer from limited labeled training data, leading to poor generalization and suboptimal predictions. On the other hand, semi-supervised algorithms can utilize abundant unlabeled data and have demonstrated good performance in classification and regression tasks. We propose TS-NODE, the first semi-supervised approach to modeling dynamical systems with NODE. TS-NODE explores cheaply generated synthetic pseudo rollouts to broaden exploration in the state space and to tackle the challenges brought by lack of ground-truth system data under a teacher-student model. TS-NODE employs an unified optimization framework that corrects the teacher model based on the student's feedback while mitigating the potential false system dynamics present in pseudo rollouts. TS-NODE demonstrates significant performance improvements over a baseline Neural ODE model on multiple dynamical system modeling tasks.

Extreme Risk Mitigation in Reinforcement Learning using Extreme Value Theory

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modeling highly rare risk events (rewards) that could potentially lead to catastrophic outcomes. These infrequent occurrences present a formidable challenge for data-driven methods aiming to capture such risky events accurately. While risk-aware RL techniques do exist, their level of risk aversion heavily relies on the precision of the state-action value function estimation when modeling these rare occurrences. Our work proposes to enhance the resilience of RL agents when faced with very rare and risky events by focusing on refining the predictions of the extreme values predicted by the state-action value function distribution. To achieve this, we formulate the extreme values of the state-action value function distribution as parameterized distributions, drawing inspiration from the principles of extreme value theory (EVT). This approach effectively addresses the issue of infrequent occurrence by leveraging EVT-based parameterization. Importantly, we theoretically demonstrate the advantages of employing these parameterized distributions in contrast to other risk-averse algorithms. Our evaluations show that the proposed method outperforms other risk averse RL algorithms on a diverse range of benchmark tasks, each encompassing distinct risk scenarios.

There is more to graphs than meets the eye: Learning universal features with self-supervision

We study the problem of learning universal features across multiple graphs through self-supervision. Graph self supervised learning has been shown to facilitate representation learning, and produce competitive models compared to supervised baselines. However, existing methods of self-supervision learn features from one graph, and thus, produce models that are specialized to a particular graph. We hypothesize that leveraging multiple graphs of the same type/class can improve the quality of learnt representations in the model by extracting features that are universal to the class of graphs. We adopt a transformer backbone that acts as a universal representation learning module for multiple graphs. We leverage neighborhood aggregation coupled with graph-specific embedding generator to transform disparate node embeddings from multiple graphs to a common space for the universal backbone. We learn both universal and graph-specific parameters in an end-to-end manner. Our experiments reveal that leveraging multiple graphs of the same type -- citation networks -- improves the quality of representations and results in better performance on downstream node classification task compared to self-supervision with one graph. The results of our study improve the state-of-the-art in graph self-supervised learning, and bridge the gap between self-supervised and supervised performance.

Perspectives on AI Architectures and Co-design for Earth System Predictability

Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) programs organized and held the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop series. From this workshop, a critical conclusion that the DOE BER and ASCR community came to is the requirement to develop a new paradigm for Earth system predictability focused on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) across the field, lab, modeling, and analysis activities, called ModEx. The BER's `Model-Experimentation', ModEx, is an iterative approach that enables process models to generate hypotheses. The developed hypotheses inform field and laboratory efforts to collect measurement and observation data, which are subsequently used to parameterize, drive, and test model (e.g., process-based) predictions. A total of 17 technical sessions were held in this AI4ESP workshop series. This paper discusses the topic of the `AI Architectures and Co-design' session and associated outcomes. The AI Architectures and Co-design session included two invited talks, two plenary discussion panels, and three breakout rooms that covered specific topics, including: (1) DOE HPC Systems, (2) Cloud HPC Systems, and (3) Edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT). We also provide forward-looking ideas and perspectives on potential research in this co-design area that can be achieved by synergies with the other 16 session topics. These ideas include topics such as: (1) reimagining co-design, (2) data acquisition to distribution, (3) heterogeneous HPC solutions for integration of AI/ML and other data analytics like uncertainty quantification with earth system modeling and simulation, and (4) AI-enabled sensor integration into earth system measurements and observations. Such perspectives are a distinguishing aspect of this paper.

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Cyber System Defense under Dynamic Adversarial Uncertainties

Development of autonomous cyber system defense strategies and action recommendations in the real-world is challenging, and includes characterizing system state uncertainties and attack-defense dynamics. We propose a data-driven deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework to learn proactive, context-aware, defense countermeasures that dynamically adapt to evolving adversarial behaviors while minimizing loss of cyber system operations. A dynamic defense optimization problem is formulated with multiple protective postures against different types of adversaries with varying levels of skill and persistence. A custom simulation environment was developed and experiments were devised to systematically evaluate the performance of four model-free DRL algorithms against realistic, multi-stage attack sequences. Our results suggest the efficacy of DRL algorithms for proactive cyber defense under multi-stage attack profiles and system uncertainties.

Extending Conformal Prediction to Hidden Markov Models with Exact Validity via de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify uncertainty in settings where the data is independent and identically distributed (IID), or more generally, exchangeable. Conformal prediction takes in a pre-trained classifier, a calibration dataset and a confidence level as inputs, and returns a function which maps feature vectors to subsets of classes. The output of the returned function for a new feature vector (i.e., a test data point) is guaranteed to contain the true class with the pre-specified confidence. Despite its success and usefulness in IID settings, extending conformal prediction to non-exchangeable (e.g., Markovian) data in a manner that provably preserves all desirable theoretical properties has largely remained an open problem. As a solution, we extend conformal prediction to the setting of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with unknown parameters. The key idea behind the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are then viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework and is general enough to be useful in many sequential prediction problems.

Differentiable Predictive Control with Safety Guarantees: A Control Barrier Function Approach

We develop a novel form of differentiable predictive control (DPC) with safety and robustness guarantees based on control barrier functions. DPC is an unsupervised learning-based method for obtaining approximate solutions to explicit model predictive control (MPC) problems. In DPC, the predictive control policy parametrized by a neural network is optimized offline via direct policy gradients obtained by automatic differentiation of the MPC problem. The proposed approach exploits a new form of sampled-data barrier function to enforce offline and online safety requirements in DPC settings while only interrupting the neural network-based controller near the boundary of the safe set. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated in simulation.

Challenges and Opportunities in Deep Reinforcement Learning with Graph Neural Networks: A Comprehensive review of Algorithms and Applications

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has empowered a variety of artificial intelligence fields, including pattern recognition, robotics, recommendation-systems, and gaming. Similarly, graph neural networks (GNN) have also demonstrated their superior performance in supervised learning for graph-structured data. In recent times, the fusion of GNN with DRL for graph-structured environments has attracted a lot of attention. This paper provides a comprehensive review of these hybrid works. These works can be classified into two categories: (1) algorithmic enhancement, where DRL and GNN complement each other for better utility; (2) application-specific enhancement, where DRL and GNN support each other. This fusion effectively addresses various complex problems in engineering and life sciences. Based on the review, we further analyze the applicability and benefits of fusing these two domains, especially in terms of increasing generalizability and reducing computational complexity. Finally, the key challenges in integrating DRL and GNN, and potential future research directions are highlighted, which will be of interest to the broader machine learning community.