Is Knowledge All Large Language Models Needed for Causal Reasoning?

This paper explores the causal reasoning of large language models (LLMs) to enhance their interpretability and reliability in advancing artificial intelligence. Despite the proficiency of LLMs in a range of tasks, their potential for understanding causality requires further exploration. We propose a novel causal attribution model that utilizes "do-operators" for constructing counterfactual scenarios, allowing us to systematically quantify the influence of input numerical data and LLMs' pre-existing knowledge on their causal reasoning processes. Our newly developed experimental setup assesses LLMs' reliance on contextual information and inherent knowledge across various domains. Our evaluation reveals that LLMs' causal reasoning ability depends on the context and domain-specific knowledge provided, and supports the argument that "knowledge is, indeed, what LLMs principally require for sound causal reasoning". On the contrary, in the absence of knowledge, LLMs still maintain a degree of causal reasoning using the available numerical data, albeit with limitations in the calculations.

Towards Trustworthy Explanation: On Causal Rationalization

With recent advances in natural language processing, rationalization becomes an essential self-explaining diagram to disentangle the black box by selecting a subset of input texts to account for the major variation in prediction. Yet, existing association-based approaches on rationalization cannot identify true rationales when two or more snippets are highly inter-correlated and thus provide a similar contribution to prediction accuracy, so-called spuriousness. To address this limitation, we novelly leverage two causal desiderata, non-spuriousness and efficiency, into rationalization from the causal inference perspective. We formally define a series of probabilities of causation based on a newly proposed structural causal model of rationalization, with its theoretical identification established as the main component of learning necessary and sufficient rationales. The superior performance of the proposed causal rationalization is demonstrated on real-world review and medical datasets with extensive experiments compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Sequential Knockoffs for Variable Selection in Reinforcement Learning

In real-world applications of reinforcement learning, it is often challenging to obtain a state representation that is parsimonious and satisfies the Markov property without prior knowledge. Consequently, it is common practice to construct a state which is larger than necessary, e.g., by concatenating measurements over contiguous time points. However, needlessly increasing the dimension of the state can slow learning and obfuscate the learned policy. We introduce the notion of a minimal sufficient state in a Markov decision process (MDP) as the smallest subvector of the original state under which the process remains an MDP and shares the same optimal policy as the original process. We propose a novel sequential knockoffs (SEEK) algorithm that estimates the minimal sufficient state in a system with high-dimensional complex nonlinear dynamics. In large samples, the proposed method controls the false discovery rate, and selects all sufficient variables with probability approaching one. As the method is agnostic to the reinforcement learning algorithm being applied, it benefits downstream tasks such as policy optimization. Empirical experiments verify theoretical results and show the proposed approach outperforms several competing methods in terms of variable selection accuracy and regret.

On Learning Necessary and Sufficient Causal Graphs

The causal revolution has spurred interest in understanding complex relationships in various fields. Most existing methods aim to discover causal relationships among all variables in a large-scale complex graph. However, in practice, only a small number of variables in the graph are relevant for the outcomes of interest. As a result, causal estimation with the full causal graph -- especially given limited data -- could lead to many falsely discovered, spurious variables that may be highly correlated with but have no causal impact on the target outcome. In this paper, we propose to learn a class of necessary and sufficient causal graphs (NSCG) that only contains causally relevant variables for an outcome of interest, which we term causal features. The key idea is to utilize probabilities of causation to systematically evaluate the importance of features in the causal graph, allowing us to identify a subgraph that is relevant to the outcome of interest. To learn NSCG from data, we develop a score-based necessary and sufficient causal structural learning (NSCSL) algorithm, by establishing theoretical relationships between probabilities of causation and causal effects of features. Across empirical studies of simulated and real data, we show that the proposed NSCSL algorithm outperforms existing algorithms and can reveal important yeast genes for target heritable traits of interest.

On Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Heterogeneous Causal Graphs

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.

Heterogeneous Synthetic Learner for Panel Data

In the new era of personalization, learning the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) becomes an inevitable trend with numerous applications. Yet, most existing HTE estimation methods focus on independently and identically distributed observations and cannot handle the non-stationarity and temporal dependency in the common panel data setting. The treatment evaluators developed for panel data, on the other hand, typically ignore the individualized information. To fill the gap, in this paper, we initialize the study of HTE estimation in panel data. Under different assumptions for HTE identifiability, we propose the corresponding heterogeneous one-side and two-side synthetic learner, namely H1SL and H2SL, by leveraging the state-of-the-art HTE estimator for non-panel data and generalizing the synthetic control method that allows flexible data generating process. We establish the convergence rates of the proposed estimators. The superior performance of the proposed methods over existing ones is demonstrated by extensive numerical studies.

Jump Interval-Learning for Individualized Decision Making

An individualized decision rule (IDR) is a decision function that assigns each individual a given treatment based on his/her observed characteristics. Most of the existing works in the literature consider settings with binary or finitely many treatment options. In this paper, we focus on the continuous treatment setting and propose a jump interval-learning to develop an individualized interval-valued decision rule (I2DR) that maximizes the expected outcome. Unlike IDRs that recommend a single treatment, the proposed I2DR yields an interval of treatment options for each individual, making it more flexible to implement in practice. To derive an optimal I2DR, our jump interval-learning method estimates the conditional mean of the outcome given the treatment and the covariates via jump penalized regression, and derives the corresponding optimal I2DR based on the estimated outcome regression function. The regressor is allowed to be either linear for clear interpretation or deep neural network to model complex treatment-covariates interactions. To implement jump interval-learning, we develop a searching algorithm based on dynamic programming that efficiently computes the outcome regression function. Statistical properties of the resulting I2DR are established when the outcome regression function is either a piecewise or continuous function over the treatment space. We further develop a procedure to infer the mean outcome under the (estimated) optimal policy. Extensive simulations and a real data application to a warfarin study are conducted to demonstrate the empirical validity of the proposed I2DR.

Doubly Robust Interval Estimation for Optimal Policy Evaluation in Online Learning

Evaluating the performance of an ongoing policy plays a vital role in many areas such as medicine and economics, to provide crucial instruction on the early-stop of the online experiment and timely feedback from the environment. Policy evaluation in online learning thus attracts increasing attention by inferring the mean outcome of the optimal policy (i.e., the value) in real-time. Yet, such a problem is particularly challenging due to the dependent data generated in the online environment, the unknown optimal policy, and the complex exploration and exploitation trade-off in the adaptive experiment. In this paper, we aim to overcome these difficulties in policy evaluation for online learning. We explicitly derive the probability of exploration that quantifies the probability of exploring the non-optimal actions under commonly used bandit algorithms. We use this probability to conduct valid inference on the online conditional mean estimator under each action and develop the doubly robust interval estimation (DREAM) method to infer the value under the estimated optimal policy in online learning. The proposed value estimator provides double protection on the consistency and is asymptotically normal with a Wald-type confidence interval provided. Extensive simulations and real data applications are conducted to demonstrate the empirical validity of the proposed DREAM method.

CAPITAL: Optimal Subgroup Identification via Constrained Policy Tree Search

Personalized medicine, a paradigm of medicine tailored to a patient's characteristics, is an increasingly attractive field in health care. An important goal of personalized medicine is to identify a subgroup of patients, based on baseline covariates, that benefits more from the targeted treatment than other comparative treatments. Most of the current subgroup identification methods only focus on obtaining a subgroup with an enhanced treatment effect without paying attention to subgroup size. Yet, a clinically meaningful subgroup learning approach should identify the maximum number of patients who can benefit from the better treatment. In this paper, we present an optimal subgroup selection rule (SSR) that maximizes the number of selected patients, and in the meantime, achieves the pre-specified clinically meaningful mean outcome, such as the average treatment effect. We derive two equivalent theoretical forms of the optimal SSR based on the contrast function that describes the treatment-covariates interaction in the outcome. We further propose a ConstrAined PolIcy Tree seArch aLgorithm (CAPITAL) to find the optimal SSR within the interpretable decision tree class. The proposed method is flexible to handle multiple constraints that penalize the inclusion of patients with negative treatment effects, and to address time to event data using the restricted mean survival time as the clinically interesting mean outcome. Extensive simulations, comparison studies, and real data applications are conducted to demonstrate the validity and utility of our method.

Periodic-GP: Learning Periodic World with Gaussian Process Bandits

We consider the sequential decision optimization on the periodic environment, that occurs in a wide variety of real-world applications when the data involves seasonality, such as the daily demand of drivers in ride-sharing and dynamic traffic patterns in transportation. In this work, we focus on learning the stochastic periodic world by leveraging this seasonal law. To deal with the general action space, we use the bandit based on Gaussian process (GP) as the base model due to its flexibility and generality, and propose the Periodic-GP method with a temporal periodic kernel based on the upper confidence bound. Theoretically, we provide a new regret bound of the proposed method, by explicitly characterizing the periodic kernel in the periodic stationary model. Empirically, the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms the existing methods in both synthetic data experiments and a real data application on Madrid traffic pollution.