Human Motion Prediction under Unexpected Perturbation

We investigate a new task in human motion prediction, which is predicting motions under unexpected physical perturbation potentially involving multiple people. Compared with existing research, this task involves predicting less controlled, unpremeditated and pure reactive motions in response to external impact and how such motions can propagate through people. It brings new challenges such as data scarcity and predicting complex interactions. To this end, we propose a new method capitalizing differential physics and deep neural networks, leading to an explicit Latent Differential Physics (LDP) model. Through experiments, we demonstrate that LDP has high data efficiency, outstanding prediction accuracy, strong generalizability and good explainability. Since there is no similar research, a comprehensive comparison with 11 adapted baselines from several relevant domains is conducted, showing LDP outperforming existing research both quantitatively and qualitatively, improving prediction accuracy by as much as 70%, and demonstrating significantly stronger generalization.

Human Trajectory Forecasting with Explainable Behavioral Uncertainty

Human trajectory forecasting helps to understand and predict human behaviors, enabling applications from social robots to self-driving cars, and therefore has been heavily investigated. Most existing methods can be divided into model-free and model-based methods. Model-free methods offer superior prediction accuracy but lack explainability, while model-based methods provide explainability but cannot predict well. Combining both methodologies, we propose a new Bayesian Neural Stochastic Differential Equation model BNSP-SFM, where a behavior SDE model is combined with Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). While the NNs provide superior predictive power, the SDE offers strong explainability with quantifiable uncertainty in behavior and observation. We show that BNSP-SFM achieves up to a 50% improvement in prediction accuracy, compared with 11 state-of-the-art methods. BNSP-SFM also generalizes better to drastically different scenes with different environments and crowd densities (~ 20 times higher than the testing data). Finally, BNSP-SFM can provide predictions with confidence to better explain potential causes of behaviors. The code will be released upon acceptance.

Human Trajectory Prediction via Neural Social Physics

Trajectory prediction has been widely pursued in many fields, and many model-based and model-free methods have been explored. The former include rule-based, geometric or optimization-based models, and the latter are mainly comprised of deep learning approaches. In this paper, we propose a new method combining both methodologies based on a new Neural Differential Equation model. Our new model (Neural Social Physics or NSP) is a deep neural network within which we use an explicit physics model with learnable parameters. The explicit physics model serves as a strong inductive bias in modeling pedestrian behaviors, while the rest of the network provides a strong data-fitting capability in terms of system parameter estimation and dynamics stochasticity modeling. We compare NSP with 15 recent deep learning methods on 6 datasets and improve the state-of-the-art performance by 5.56%-70%. Besides, we show that NSP has better generalizability in predicting plausible trajectories in drastically different scenarios where the density is 2-5 times as high as the testing data. Finally, we show that the physics model in NSP can provide plausible explanations for pedestrian behaviors, as opposed to black-box deep learning. Code is available: https://github.com/realcrane/Human-Trajectory-Prediction-via-Neural-Social-Physics.