Learning from Demonstration in the Wild

Learning from demonstration (LfD) is useful in settings where hand-coding behaviour or a reward function is impractical. It has succeeded in a wide range of problems but typically relies on artificially generated demonstrations or specially deployed sensors and has not generally been able to leverage the copious demonstrations available in the wild: those that capture behaviour that was occurring anyway using sensors that were already deployed for another purpose, e.g., traffic camera footage capturing demonstrations of natural behaviour of vehicles, cyclists, and pedestrians. We propose video to behaviour (ViBe), a new approach to learning models of road user behaviour that requires as input only unlabelled raw video data of a traffic scene collected from a single, monocular, uncalibrated camera with ordinary resolution. Our approach calibrates the camera, detects relevant objects, tracks them through time, and uses the resulting trajectories to perform LfD, yielding models of naturalistic behaviour. We apply ViBe to raw videos of a traffic intersection and show that it can learn purely from videos, without additional expert knowledge.

Beyond Local Nash Equilibria for Adversarial Networks

Save for some special cases, current training methods for Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are at best guaranteed to converge to a `local Nash equilibrium` (LNE). Such LNEs, however, can be arbitrarily far from an actual Nash equilibrium (NE), which implies that there are no guarantees on the quality of the found generator or classifier. This paper proposes to model GANs explicitly as finite games in mixed strategies, thereby ensuring that every LNE is an NE. With this formulation, we propose a solution method that is proven to monotonically converge to a resource-bounded Nash equilibrium (RB-NE): by increasing computational resources we can find better solutions. We empirically demonstrate that our method is less prone to typical GAN problems such as mode collapse, and produces solutions that are less exploitable than those produced by GANs and MGANs, and closely resemble theoretical predictions about NEs.

Learning in POMDPs with Monte Carlo Tree Search

The POMDP is a powerful framework for reasoning under outcome and information uncertainty, but constructing an accurate POMDP model is difficult. Bayes-Adaptive Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (BA-POMDPs) extend POMDPs to allow the model to be learned during execution. BA-POMDPs are a Bayesian RL approach that, in principle, allows for an optimal trade-off between exploitation and exploration. Unfortunately, BA-POMDPs are currently impractical to solve for any non-trivial domain. In this paper, we extend the Monte-Carlo Tree Search method POMCP to BA-POMDPs and show that the resulting method, which we call BA-POMCP, is able to tackle problems that previous solution methods have been unable to solve. Additionally, we introduce several techniques that exploit the BA-POMDP structure to improve the efficiency of BA-POMCP along with proof of their convergence.

GANGs: Generative Adversarial Network Games

Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have become one of the most successful frameworks for unsupervised generative modeling. As GANs are difficult to train much research has focused on this. However, very little of this research has directly exploited game-theoretic techniques. We introduce Generative Adversarial Network Games (GANGs), which explicitly model a finite zero-sum game between a generator ($G$) and classifier ($C$) that use mixed strategies. The size of these games precludes exact solution methods, therefore we define resource-bounded best responses (RBBRs), and a resource-bounded Nash Equilibrium (RB-NE) as a pair of mixed strategies such that neither $G$ or $C$ can find a better RBBR. The RB-NE solution concept is richer than the notion of `local Nash equilibria' in that it captures not only failures of escaping local optima of gradient descent, but applies to any approximate best response computations, including methods with random restarts. To validate our approach, we solve GANGs with the Parallel Nash Memory algorithm, which provably monotonically converges to an RB-NE. We compare our results to standard GAN setups, and demonstrate that our method deals well with typical GAN problems such as mode collapse, partial mode coverage and forgetting.

Structure in the Value Function of Two-Player Zero-Sum Games of Incomplete Information

Zero-sum stochastic games provide a rich model for competitive decision making. However, under general forms of state uncertainty as considered in the Partially Observable Stochastic Game (POSG), such decision making problems are still not very well understood. This paper makes a contribution to the theory of zero-sum POSGs by characterizing structure in their value function. In particular, we introduce a new formulation of the value function for zs-POSGs as a function of the "plan-time sufficient statistics" (roughly speaking the information distribution in the POSG), which has the potential to enable generalization over such information distributions. We further delineate this generalization capability by proving a structural result on the shape of value function: it exhibits concavity and convexity with respect to appropriately chosen marginals of the statistic space. This result is a key pre-cursor for developing solution methods that may be able to exploit such structure. Finally, we show how these results allow us to reduce a zs-POSG to a "centralized" model with shared observations, thereby transferring results for the latter, narrower class, to games with individual (private) observations.

Probably Approximately Correct Greedy Maximization

Submodular function maximization finds application in a variety of real-world decision-making problems. However, most existing methods, based on greedy maximization, assume it is computationally feasible to evaluate F, the function being maximized. Unfortunately, in many realistic settings F is too expensive to evaluate exactly even once. We present probably approximately correct greedy maximization, which requires access only to cheap anytime confidence bounds on F and uses them to prune elements. We show that, with high probability, our method returns an approximately optimal set. We propose novel, cheap confidence bounds for conditional entropy, which appears in many common choices of F and for which it is difficult to find unbiased or bounded estimates. Finally, results on a real-world dataset from a multi-camera tracking system in a shopping mall demonstrate that our approach performs comparably to existing methods, but at a fraction of the computational cost.

Exploiting Anonymity in Approximate Linear Programming: Scaling to Large Multiagent MDPs (Extended Version)

Many exact and approximate solution methods for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) attempt to exploit structure in the problem and are based on factorization of the value function. Especially multiagent settings, however, are known to suffer from an exponential increase in value component sizes as interactions become denser, meaning that approximation architectures are restricted in the problem sizes and types they can handle. We present an approach to mitigate this limitation for certain types of multiagent systems, exploiting a property that can be thought of as "anonymous influence" in the factored MDP. Anonymous influence summarizes joint variable effects efficiently whenever the explicit representation of variable identity in the problem can be avoided. We show how representational benefits from anonymity translate into computational efficiencies, both for general variable elimination in a factor graph but in particular also for the approximate linear programming solution to factored MDPs. The latter allows to scale linear programming to factored MDPs that were previously unsolvable. Our results are shown for the control of a stochastic disease process over a densely connected graph with 50 nodes and 25 agents.

Solving Transition-Independent Multi-agent MDPs with Sparse Interactions (Extended version)

In cooperative multi-agent sequential decision making under uncertainty, agents must coordinate to find an optimal joint policy that maximises joint value. Typical algorithms exploit additive structure in the value function, but in the fully-observable multi-agent MDP setting (MMDP) such structure is not present. We propose a new optimal solver for transition-independent MMDPs, in which agents can only affect their own state but their reward depends on joint transitions. We represent these dependencies compactly in conditional return graphs (CRGs). Using CRGs the value of a joint policy and the bounds on partially specified joint policies can be efficiently computed. We propose CoRe, a novel branch-and-bound policy search algorithm building on CRGs. CoRe typically requires less runtime than the available alternatives and finds solutions to problems previously unsolvable.

Scaling POMDPs For Selecting Sellers in E-markets-Extended Version

In multiagent e-marketplaces, buying agents need to select good sellers by querying other buyers (called advisors). Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) have shown to be an effective framework for optimally selecting sellers by selectively querying advisors. However, current solution methods do not scale to hundreds or even tens of agents operating in the e-market. In this paper, we propose the Mixture of POMDP Experts (MOPE) technique, which exploits the inherent structure of trust-based domains, such as the seller selection problem in e-markets, by aggregating the solutions of smaller sub-POMDPs. We propose a number of variants of the MOPE approach that we analyze theoretically and empirically. Experiments show that MOPE can scale up to a hundred agents thereby leveraging the presence of more advisors to significantly improve buyer satisfaction.

Influence-Optimistic Local Values for Multiagent Planning --- Extended Version

Recent years have seen the development of methods for multiagent planning under uncertainty that scale to tens or even hundreds of agents. However, most of these methods either make restrictive assumptions on the problem domain, or provide approximate solutions without any guarantees on quality. Methods in the former category typically build on heuristic search using upper bounds on the value function. Unfortunately, no techniques exist to compute such upper bounds for problems with non-factored value functions. To allow for meaningful benchmarking through measurable quality guarantees on a very general class of problems, this paper introduces a family of influence-optimistic upper bounds for factored decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) that do not have factored value functions. Intuitively, we derive bounds on very large multiagent planning problems by subdividing them in sub-problems, and at each of these sub-problems making optimistic assumptions with respect to the influence that will be exerted by the rest of the system. We numerically compare the different upper bounds and demonstrate how we can achieve a non-trivial guarantee that a heuristic solution for problems with hundreds of agents is close to optimal. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the upper bounds may improve the effectiveness of heuristic influence search, and discuss further potential applications to multiagent planning.