Conformer: Embedding Continuous Attention in Vision Transformer for Weather Forecasting

Operational weather forecasting system relies on computationally expensive physics-based models. Although Transformers-based models have shown remarkable potential in weather forecasting, Transformers are discrete models which limit their ability to learn the continuous spatio-temporal features of the dynamical weather system. We address this issue with Conformer, a spatio-temporal Continuous Vision Transformer for weather forecasting. Conformer is designed to learn the continuous weather evolution over time by implementing continuity in the multi-head attention mechanism. The attention mechanism is encoded as a differentiable function in the transformer architecture to model the complex weather dynamics. We evaluate Conformer against a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and several deep learning based weather forecasting models. Conformer outperforms some of the existing data-driven models at all lead times while only being trained at lower resolution data.