Experts Don't Cheat: Learning What You Don't Know By Predicting Pairs

Identifying how much a model ${\widehat{p}}_{\theta}(Y|X)$ knows about the stochastic real-world process $p(Y|X)$ it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate $p(Y|X)$ and also estimate the remaining gaps between ${\widehat{p}}_{\theta}(Y|X)$ and $p(Y|X)$: train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for $p(Y|X)$ and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

R-U-SURE? Uncertainty-Aware Code Suggestions By Maximizing Utility Across Random User Intents

Large language models show impressive results at predicting structured text such as code, but also commonly introduce errors and hallucinations in their output. When used to assist software developers, these models may make mistakes that users must go back and fix, or worse, introduce subtle bugs that users may miss entirely. We propose Randomized Utility-driven Synthesis of Uncertain REgions (R-U-SURE), an approach for building uncertainty-aware suggestions based on a decision-theoretic model of goal-conditioned utility, using random samples from a generative model as a proxy for the unobserved possible intents of the end user. Our technique combines minimum-Bayes-risk decoding, dual decomposition, and decision diagrams in order to efficiently produce structured uncertainty summaries, given only sample access to an arbitrary generative model of code and an optional AST parser. We demonstrate R-U-SURE on three developer-assistance tasks, and show that it can be applied different user interaction patterns without retraining the model and leads to more accurate uncertainty estimates than token-probability baselines.

A Library for Representing Python Programs as Graphs for Machine Learning

Graph representations of programs are commonly a central element of machine learning for code research. We introduce an open source Python library python_graphs that applies static analysis to construct graph representations of Python programs suitable for training machine learning models. Our library admits the construction of control-flow graphs, data-flow graphs, and composite ``program graphs'' that combine control-flow, data-flow, syntactic, and lexical information about a program. We present the capabilities and limitations of the library, perform a case study applying the library to millions of competitive programming submissions, and showcase the library's utility for machine learning research.

Learning to Improve Code Efficiency

Improvements in the performance of computing systems, driven by Moore's Law, have transformed society. As such hardware-driven gains slow down, it becomes even more important for software developers to focus on performance and efficiency during development. While several studies have demonstrated the potential from such improved code efficiency (e.g., 2x better generational improvements compared to hardware), unlocking these gains in practice has been challenging. Reasoning about algorithmic complexity and the interaction of coding patterns on hardware can be challenging for the average programmer, especially when combined with pragmatic constraints around development velocity and multi-person development. This paper seeks to address this problem. We analyze a large competitive programming dataset from the Google Code Jam competition and find that efficient code is indeed rare, with a 2x runtime difference between the median and the 90th percentile of solutions. We propose using machine learning to automatically provide prescriptive feedback in the form of hints, to guide programmers towards writing high-performance code. To automatically learn these hints from the dataset, we propose a novel discrete variational auto-encoder, where each discrete latent variable represents a different learned category of code-edit that increases performance. We show that this method represents the multi-modal space of code efficiency edits better than a sequence-to-sequence baseline and generates a distribution of more efficient solutions.

Repository-Level Prompt Generation for Large Language Models of Code

With the success of large language models (LLMs) of code and their use as code assistants (e.g. Codex used in GitHub Copilot), techniques for introducing domain-specific knowledge in the prompt design process become important. In this work, we propose a framework called Repo-Level Prompt Generator that learns to generate example-specific prompts using a set of rules. These rules take context from the entire repository, thereby incorporating both the structure of the repository and the context from other relevant files (e.g. imports, parent class files). Our technique doesn't require any access to the weights of the LLM, making it applicable in cases where we only have black-box access to the LLM. We conduct experiments on the task of single-line code-autocompletion using code repositories taken from Google Code archives. We demonstrate that an oracle constructed from our proposed rules gives up to 36% relative improvement over Codex, showing the quality of the rules. Further, we show that when we train a model to select the best rule, we can achieve significant performance gains over Codex. The code for our work can be found at: https://github.com/shrivastavadisha/repo_level_prompt_generation.

Static Prediction of Runtime Errors by Learning to Execute Programs with External Resource Descriptions

The execution behavior of a program often depends on external resources, such as program inputs or file contents, and so cannot be run in isolation. Nevertheless, software developers benefit from fast iteration loops where automated tools identify errors as early as possible, even before programs can be compiled and run. This presents an interesting machine learning challenge: can we predict runtime errors in a "static" setting, where program execution is not possible? Here, we introduce a real-world dataset and task for predicting runtime errors, which we show is difficult for generic models like Transformers. We approach this task by developing an interpreter-inspired architecture with an inductive bias towards mimicking program executions, which models exception handling and "learns to execute" descriptions of the contents of external resources. Surprisingly, we show that the model can also predict the location of the error, despite being trained only on labels indicating the presence/absence and kind of error. In total, we present a practical and difficult-yet-approachable challenge problem related to learning program execution and we demonstrate promising new capabilities of interpreter-inspired machine learning models for code.

Learning Generalized Gumbel-max Causal Mechanisms

To perform counterfactual reasoning in Structural Causal Models (SCMs), one needs to know the causal mechanisms, which provide factorizations of conditional distributions into noise sources and deterministic functions mapping realizations of noise to samples. Unfortunately, the causal mechanism is not uniquely identified by data that can be gathered by observing and interacting with the world, so there remains the question of how to choose causal mechanisms. In recent work, Oberst & Sontag (2019) propose Gumbel-max SCMs, which use Gumbel-max reparameterizations as the causal mechanism due to an intuitively appealing counterfactual stability property. In this work, we instead argue for choosing a causal mechanism that is best under a quantitative criteria such as minimizing variance when estimating counterfactual treatment effects. We propose a parameterized family of causal mechanisms that generalize Gumbel-max. We show that they can be trained to minimize counterfactual effect variance and other losses on a distribution of queries of interest, yielding lower variance estimates of counterfactual treatment effect than fixed alternatives, also generalizing to queries not seen at training time.

Beyond In-Place Corruption: Insertion and Deletion In Denoising Probabilistic Models

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have shown impressive results on sequence generation by iteratively corrupting each example and then learning to map corrupted versions back to the original. However, previous work has largely focused on in-place corruption, adding noise to each pixel or token individually while keeping their locations the same. In this work, we consider a broader class of corruption processes and denoising models over sequence data that can insert and delete elements, while still being efficient to train and sample from. We demonstrate that these models outperform standard in-place models on an arithmetic sequence task, and that when trained on the text8 dataset they can be used to fix spelling errors without any fine-tuning.

Structured Denoising Diffusion Models in Discrete State-Spaces

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) (Ho et al. 2020) have shown impressive results on image and waveform generation in continuous state spaces. Here, we introduce Discrete Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (D3PMs), diffusion-like generative models for discrete data that generalize the multinomial diffusion model of Hoogeboom et al. 2021, by going beyond corruption processes with uniform transition probabilities. This includes corruption with transition matrices that mimic Gaussian kernels in continuous space, matrices based on nearest neighbors in embedding space, and matrices that introduce absorbing states. The third allows us to draw a connection between diffusion models and autoregressive and mask-based generative models. We show that the choice of transition matrix is an important design decision that leads to improved results in image and text domains. We also introduce a new loss function that combines the variational lower bound with an auxiliary cross entropy loss. For text, this model class achieves strong results on character-level text generation while scaling to large vocabularies on LM1B. On the image dataset CIFAR-10, our models approach the sample quality and exceed the log-likelihood of the continuous-space DDPM model.

Learning to Combine Per-Example Solutions for Neural Program Synthesis

The goal of program synthesis from examples is to find a computer program that is consistent with a given set of input-output examples. Most learning-based approaches try to find a program that satisfies all examples at once. Our work, by contrast, considers an approach that breaks the problem into two stages: (a) find programs that satisfy only one example, and (b) leverage these per-example solutions to yield a program that satisfies all examples. We introduce the Cross Aggregator neural network module based on a multi-head attention mechanism that learns to combine the cues present in these per-example solutions to synthesize a global solution. Evaluation across programs of different lengths and under two different experimental settings reveal that when given the same time budget, our technique significantly improves the success rate over PCCoder arXiv:1809.04682v2 [cs.LG] and other ablation baselines. The code, data and trained models for our work can be found at https://github.com/shrivastavadisha/N-PEPS.