Learning Time Varying Risk Preferences from Investment Portfolios using Inverse Optimization with Applications on Mutual Funds

The fundamental principle in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is based on the quantification of the portfolio's risk related to performance. Although MPT has made huge impacts on the investment world and prompted the success and prevalence of passive investing, it still has shortcomings in real-world applications. One of the main challenges is that the level of risk an investor can endure, known as \emph{risk-preference}, is a subjective choice that is tightly related to psychology and behavioral science in decision making. This paper presents a novel approach of measuring risk preference from existing portfolios using inverse optimization on the mean-variance portfolio allocation framework. Our approach allows the learner to continuously estimate real-time risk preferences using concurrent observed portfolios and market price data. We demonstrate our methods on real market data that consists of 20 years of asset pricing and 10 years of mutual fund portfolio holdings. Moreover, the quantified risk preference parameters are validated with two well-known risk measurements currently applied in the field. The proposed methods could lead to practical and fruitful innovations in automated/personalized portfolio management, such as Robo-advising, to augment financial advisors' decision intelligence in a long-term investment horizon.

Inverse Multiobjective Optimization Through Online Learning

We study the problem of learning the objective functions or constraints of a multiobjective decision making model, based on a set of sequentially arrived decisions. In particular, these decisions might not be exact and possibly carry measurement noise or are generated with the bounded rationality of decision makers. In this paper, we propose a general online learning framework to deal with this learning problem using inverse multiobjective optimization. More precisely, we develop two online learning algorithms with implicit update rules which can handle noisy data. Numerical results show that both algorithms can learn the parameters with great accuracy and are robust to noise.

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Inverse Multiobjective Optimization

Inverse multiobjective optimization provides a general framework for the unsupervised learning task of inferring parameters of a multiobjective decision making problem (DMP), based on a set of observed decisions from the human expert. However, the performance of this framework relies critically on the availability of an accurate DMP, sufficient decisions of high quality, and a parameter space that contains enough information about the DMP. To hedge against the uncertainties in the hypothetical DMP, the data, and the parameter space, we investigate in this paper the distributionally robust approach for inverse multiobjective optimization. Specifically, we leverage the Wasserstein metric to construct a ball centered at the empirical distribution of these decisions. We then formulate a Wasserstein distributionally robust inverse multiobjective optimization problem (WRO-IMOP) that minimizes a worst-case expected loss function, where the worst case is taken over all distributions in the Wasserstein ball. We show that the excess risk of the WRO-IMOP estimator has a sub-linear convergence rate. Furthermore, we propose the semi-infinite reformulations of the WRO-IMOP and develop a cutting-plane algorithm that converges to an approximate solution in finite iterations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both a synthetic multiobjective quadratic program and a real world portfolio optimization problem.

Generalized Inverse Optimization through Online Learning

Inverse optimization is a powerful paradigm for learning preferences and restrictions that explain the behavior of a decision maker, based on a set of external signal and the corresponding decision pairs. However, most inverse optimization algorithms are designed specifically in batch setting, where all the data is available in advance. As a consequence, there has been rare use of these methods in an online setting suitable for real-time applications. In this paper, we propose a general framework for inverse optimization through online learning. Specifically, we develop an online learning algorithm that uses an implicit update rule which can handle noisy data. Moreover, under additional regularity assumptions in terms of the data and the model, we prove that our algorithm converges at a rate of $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ and is statistically consistent. In our experiments, we show the online learning approach can learn the parameters with great accuracy and is very robust to noises, and achieves a dramatic improvement in computational efficacy over the batch learning approach.

Inferring Parameters Through Inverse Multiobjective Optimization

Given a set of human's decisions that are observed, inverse optimization has been developed and utilized to infer the underlying decision making problem. The majority of existing studies assumes that the decision making problem is with a single objective function, and attributes data divergence to noises, errors or bounded rationality, which, however, could lead to a corrupted inference when decisions are tradeoffs among multiple criteria. In this paper, we take a data-driven approach and design a more sophisticated inverse optimization formulation to explicitly infer parameters of a multiobjective decision making problem from noisy observations. This framework, together with our mathematical analyses and advanced algorithm developments, demonstrates a strong capacity in estimating critical parameters, decoupling "interpretable" components from noises or errors, deriving the denoised \emph{optimal} decisions, and ensuring statistical significance. In particular, for the whole decision maker population, if suitable conditions hold, we will be able to understand the overall diversity and the distribution of their preferences over multiple criteria, which is important when a precise inference on every single decision maker is practically unnecessary or infeasible. Numerical results on a large number of experiments are reported to confirm the effectiveness of our unique inverse optimization model and the computational efficacy of the developed algorithms.