Schrödinger's Cat: Probabilistic Representation and Prediction of Potential Scene Kinematics

Predicting how a scene may evolve from partial observations requires reasoning about multiple possible futures rather than committing to a single trajectory. Existing approaches either generate appearance-dominated video predictions or sample a small number of trajectories without explicitly modeling the distribution of possible motion. We introduce Goal-Aware Representations of Future kInEmatic Latent Distributions (GARFIELD), a probabilistic model of scene kinematics that learns a structured spatio-temporal latent representation of the distribution over possible futures given an image and optional spatio-temporally sparse constraints. The same latent representation enables both joint sampling of all trajectories and direct access to the underlying motion distribution through an efficient deterministic density decoder. As a result, uncertainty about future motion can be localized to specific scene elements and timesteps and progressively refined through additional constraints. Experiments demonstrate strong motion planning performance competitive with large video generation models while sampling trajectories $97\times$ faster. Our method further estimates motion densities two orders of magnitude faster than Monte-Carlo sampling from motion generation models, enabling interactive exploration and uncertainty-aware planning.

Contrastive-Augmented Flow Matching for Style-Content Disentanglement

Learning representations that separate content and style is crucial for controllable generation and compositional generalization. However, diffusion and flow-based models trained primarily with generative objectives often produce entangled or misaligned factors. To address this gap, we introduce Contrastive Augmented Flow Matching (CAtFM), a framework that integrates contrastive regularization into an invertible flow matching formulation to promote structured content-style representations. Rather than constraining intermediate latents or velocity fields, we apply contrastive supervision to predicted endpoints during training, enforcing semantic consistency across transported distributions while allowing disentanglement to emerge implicitly, without assuming strictly pure or fully factorized content and style representations. Our main experiments operate in the CLIP embedding space, with additional validation using frozen DINO and ALIGN encoders. Across synthetic data, in-domain styles, and real-world benchmarks (ImageNet, WikiArt, DomainNet, and DTD), CAtFM improves content and style retrieval, enhances embedding cluster separation, and achieves stronger open-set robustness compared to generative and discriminative baselines. Overall, CAtFM provides a simple way to couple discriminative constraints with deterministic transport, improving disentanglement and robustness under distribution shift.

Show Me Examples: Inferring Visual Concepts from Image Sets

Vision-language models (VLMs) can follow complex textual instructions, yet they struggle to reason from purely visual context. In particular, current models fail to infer shared concepts from sets of example images and apply them to new inputs. We introduce Visual Concept Inference from Sets (VICIS), a task that evaluates this capability. Given a small context set of images sharing a concept and a query image, the model must generate new images that preserve the context-defined concept while remaining consistent with the query. We show that state-of-the-art VLMs perform poorly on this task, often ignoring the visual context or defaulting to biased generations. To address this gap, we propose a training framework and architecture that learn to infer visual concepts from image sets and extract concept-specific embeddings from queries. Experiments on synthetic data and large-scale ImageNet/WordNet data show that our model generates more accurate and diverse outputs and generalizes to unseen concepts and modalities such as sketches.

Modular Diffusion Models for Structured Visual Recognition

Traditional supervised methods for structured visual recognition tasks -- such as object detection, segmentation, and scene graph generation -- often produce deterministic, fixed outputs, limiting their ability to capture the inherent uncertainty in complex visual scenes. As a consequence, such point estimates are unable to capture the prediction uncertainty (or multi modality) intrinsic to these problems, often arising from natural ambiguities (e.g., ambiguity in size of partially occluded objects, local ambiguity of exact segmentation boundary, etc.) as well as noise and sparsity of training data. To address this limitation, we present Modular Diffusion Models (MDMs), a simple and novel framework that learns a distribution over structured outputs for a given input image. MDMs decompose the diffusion process into distinct, task-specific modules, each focused on capturing a different aspect of the structured information space, such as object categories, spatial locations, and inter-object relationships. This modular design allows each component to be learned independently, with seamless integration at inference without additional training. Furthermore, the modularity of MDMs enables the diffusion process to easily operate over the heterogeneous output space common in many structured learning tasks (e.g., a continuous bounding boxes and discrete class labels). Experimental results over three distinct structured tasks -- object detection, instance segmentation, and scene graph generation -- highlight the benefits of our proposed framework.

Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting with Rectified Flow Transformers

Accurate weather forecasts are essential across various domains and are safety-critical in extreme weather conditions. Compared to simulation-based forecasting, data-driven approaches show greater efficiency, enabling short-term, high-resolution nowcasting. In particular, diffusion models proved effective in weather nowcasting due to their strong probabilistic foundation. However, existing methods rely on deterministic compression to reduce the complexity of high-dimensional weather data, limiting their ability to capture uncertainty in the decoding process. In this work, we introduce $\textbf{FREUD}$, a $\textbf{Fr}$ame-wise $\textbf{E}$ncoder and $\textbf{U}$nited $\textbf{D}$ecoder model based on rectified flow transformers for efficient compression of spatio-temporal weather data. Frame-wise encoding enables continuous forecast updates, while the unified video decoder ensures temporal consistency. Our uncertainty-preserving first stage allows us to capture aleatoric uncertainty via ensembling, which is particularly beneficial for extreme weather events with high decoding variability. We achieve state-of-the-art performance in precipitation nowcasting with a compact latent-space rectified flow transformer on the SEVIR benchmark and show further performance gains by model and test-time scaling. Code available here: https://github.com/CompVis/weather-rf

RayDer: Scalable Self-Supervised Novel View Synthesis from Real-World Video

Self-supervised novel view synthesis (NVS) remains challenging to scale, despite the abundance of video data, largely due to the brittleness of training on realistic videos and the hard-to-predict scaling behavior of multi-network system designs. We introduce RayDer, a unified, feed-forward transformer that consolidates camera estimation, scene reconstruction, and rendering into a single backbone, turning self-supervised NVS into a well-posed single-model scaling problem. A minimal dynamic state, treated as a nuisance factor, absorbs time-varying content and enables stable training on unconstrained real-world video. Importantly, RayDer keeps static-scene NVS as its target task: dynamic content is leveraged purely as scalable supervision, not reconstructed as in dynamic-scene (4D) NVS. Across multiple model sizes and orders of magnitude in data, RayDer exhibits clean power-law scaling with data and compute, and outperforms static-scene data mixtures. On a large number of benchmarks, RayDer achieves strong zero-shot open-set performance competitive with state-of-the-art supervised approaches. Project Page: https://compvis.github.io/rayder

Denoising, Fast and Slow: Difficulty-Aware Adaptive Sampling for Image Generation

Diffusion- and flow-based models usually allocate compute uniformly across space, updating all patches with the same timestep and number of function evaluations. While convenient, this ignores the heterogeneity of natural images: some regions are easy to denoise, whereas others benefit from more refinement or additional context. Motivated by this, we explore patch-level noise scales for image synthesis. We find that naively varying timesteps across image tokens performs poorly, as it exposes the model to overly informative training states that do not occur at inference. We therefore introduce a timestep sampler that explicitly controls the maximum patch-level information available during training, and show that moving from global to patch-level timesteps already improves image generation over standard baselines. By further augmenting the model with a lightweight per-patch difficulty head, we enable adaptive samplers that allocate compute dynamically where it is most needed. Combined with noise levels varying over both space and diffusion time, this yields Patch Forcing (PF), a framework that advances easier regions earlier so they can provide context for harder ones. PF achieves superior results on class-conditional ImageNet, remains orthogonal to representation alignment and guidance methods, and scales to text-to-image synthesis. Our results suggest that patch-level denoising schedules provide a promising foundation for adaptive image generation.

Learning Long-term Motion Embeddings for Efficient Kinematics Generation

Understanding and predicting motion is a fundamental component of visual intelligence. Although modern video models exhibit strong comprehension of scene dynamics, exploring multiple possible futures through full video synthesis remains prohibitively inefficient. We model scene dynamics orders of magnitude more efficiently by directly operating on a long-term motion embedding that is learned from large-scale trajectories obtained from tracker models. This enables efficient generation of long, realistic motions that fulfill goals specified via text prompts or spatial pokes. To achieve this, we first learn a highly compressed motion embedding with a temporal compression factor of 64x. In this space, we train a conditional flow-matching model to generate motion latents conditioned on task descriptions. The resulting motion distributions outperform those of both state-of-the-art video models and specialized task-specific approaches.

Envisioning the Future, One Step at a Time

Accurately anticipating how complex, diverse scenes will evolve requires models that represent uncertainty, simulate along extended interaction chains, and efficiently explore many plausible futures. Yet most existing approaches rely on dense video or latent-space prediction, expending substantial capacity on dense appearance rather than on the underlying sparse trajectories of points in the scene. This makes large-scale exploration of future hypotheses costly and limits performance when long-horizon, multi-modal motion is essential. We address this by formulating the prediction of open-set future scene dynamics as step-wise inference over sparse point trajectories. Our autoregressive diffusion model advances these trajectories through short, locally predictable transitions, explicitly modeling the growth of uncertainty over time. This dynamics-centric representation enables fast rollout of thousands of diverse futures from a single image, optionally guided by initial constraints on motion, while maintaining physical plausibility and long-range coherence. We further introduce OWM, a benchmark for open-set motion prediction based on diverse in-the-wild videos, to evaluate accuracy and variability of predicted trajectory distributions under real-world uncertainty. Our method matches or surpasses dense simulators in predictive accuracy while achieving orders-of-magnitude higher sampling speed, making open-set future prediction both scalable and practical. Project page: http://compvis.github.io/myriad.

FlowTouch: View-Invariant Visuo-Tactile Prediction

Tactile sensation is essential for contact-rich manipulation tasks. It provides direct feedback on object geometry, surface properties, and interaction forces, enhancing perception and enabling fine-grained control. An inherent limitation of tactile sensors is that readings are available only when an object is touched. This precludes their use during planning and the initial execution phase of a task. Predicting tactile information from visual information can bridge this gap. A common approach is to learn a direct mapping from camera images to the output of vision-based tactile sensors. However, the resulting model will depend strongly on the specific setup and on how well the camera can capture the area where an object is touched. In this work, we introduce FlowTouch, a novel model for view-invariant visuo-tactile prediction. Our key idea is to use an object's local 3D mesh to encode rich information for predicting tactile patterns while abstracting away from scene-dependent details. FlowTouch integrates scene reconstruction and Flow Matching-based models for image generation. Our results show that FlowTouch is able to bridge the sim-to-real gap and generalize to new sensor instances. We further show that the resulting tactile images can be used for downstream grasp stability prediction. Our code, datasets and videos are available at https://flowtouch.github.io/