Fast, Scale-Adaptive, and Uncertainty-Aware Downscaling of Earth System Model Fields with Generative Foundation Models

Accurate and high-resolution Earth system model (ESM) simulations are essential to assess the ecological and socio-economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are computationally too expensive. Recent machine learning approaches have shown promising results in downscaling ESM simulations, outperforming state-of-the-art statistical approaches. However, existing methods require computationally costly retraining for each ESM and extrapolate poorly to climates unseen during training. We address these shortcomings by learning a consistency model (CM) that efficiently and accurately downscales arbitrary ESM simulations without retraining in a zero-shot manner. Our foundation model approach yields probabilistic downscaled fields at resolution only limited by the observational reference data. We show that the CM outperforms state-of-the-art diffusion models at a fraction of computational cost while maintaining high controllability on the downscaling task. Further, our method generalizes to climate states unseen during training without explicitly formulated physical constraints.

Reconstructing Three-decade Global Fine-Grained Nighttime Light Observations by a New Super-Resolution Framework

Satellite-collected nighttime light provides a unique perspective on human activities, including urbanization, population growth, and epidemics. Yet, long-term and fine-grained nighttime light observations are lacking, leaving the analysis and applications of decades of light changes in urban facilities undeveloped. To fill this gap, we developed an innovative framework and used it to design a new super-resolution model that reconstructs low-resolution nighttime light data into high resolution. The validation of one billion data points shows that the correlation coefficient of our model at the global scale reaches 0.873, which is significantly higher than that of other existing models (maximum = 0.713). Our model also outperforms existing models at the national and urban scales. Furthermore, through an inspection of airports and roads, only our model's image details can reveal the historical development of these facilities. We provide the long-term and fine-grained nighttime light observations to promote research on human activities. The dataset is available at \url{https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7859205}.

Improving seasonal forecast using probabilistic deep learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits depends heavily on improving general circulation model based dynamical forecasting systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecast, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge cost in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. In this study, we develop a probabilistic deep neural network model, drawing on a wealth of existing climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By leveraging complex physical relationships encoded in climate simulations, our probabilistic forecast model demonstrates favorable deterministic and probabilistic skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems in quasi-global seasonal forecast of precipitation and near-surface temperature. We apply this probabilistic forecast methodology to quantify the impacts of initialization errors and model formulation deficiencies in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system. We introduce the saliency analysis approach to efficiently identify the key predictors that influence seasonal variability. Furthermore, by explicitly modeling uncertainty using variational Bayes, we give a more definitive answer to how the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, the dominant mode of seasonal variability, modulates global seasonal predictability.