Topological Detection of Hopf Bifurcations via Persistent Homology: A Functional Criterion from Time Series

We propose a topological framework for the detection of Hopf bifurcations directly from time series, based on persistent homology applied to phase space reconstructions via Takens embedding within the framework of Topological Data Analysis. The central idea is that changes in the dynamical regime are reflected in the emergence or disappearance of a dominant one-dimensional homological features in the reconstructed attractor. To quantify this behavior, we introduce a simple and interpretable scalar topological functional defined as the maximum persistence of homology classes in dimension one. This functional is used to construct a computable criterion for identifying critical parameters in families of dynamical systems without requiring knowledge of the underlying equations. The proposed approach is validated on representative systems of increasing complexity, showing consistent detection of the bifurcation point. The results support the interpretation of dynamical transitions as topological phase transitions and demonstrate the potential of topological data analysis as a model-free tool for the quantitative analysis of nonlinear time series.

At FullTilt: Real-Time Open-Set 3D Macromolecule Detection Directly from Tilted 2D Projections

Open-set 3D macromolecule detection in cryogenic electron tomography eliminates the need for target-specific model retraining. However, strict VRAM constraints prohibit processing an entire 3D tomogram, forcing current methods to rely on slow sliding-window inference over extracted subvolumes. To overcome this, we propose FullTilt, an end-to-end framework that redefines 3D detection by operating directly on aligned 2D tilt-series. Because a tilt-series contains significantly fewer images than slices in a reconstructed tomogram, FullTilt eliminates redundant volumetric computation, accelerating inference by orders of magnitude. To process the entire tilt-series simultaneously, we introduce a tilt-series encoder to efficiently fuse cross-view information. We further propose a multiclass visual prompt encoder for flexible prompting, a tilt-aware query initializer to effectively anchor 3D queries, and an auxiliary geometric primitives module to enhance the model's understanding of multi-view geometry while improving robustness to adverse imaging artifacts. Extensive evaluations on three real-world datasets demonstrate that FullTilt achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance while drastically reducing runtime and VRAM requirements, paving the way for rapid, large-scale visual proteomics analysis. All code and data will be publicly available upon publication.

Sample entropy for graph signals: An approach to nonlinear dynamic analysis of data on networks

The recent extension of permutation entropy and its derivatives to graph signals has opened up new horizons for the analysis of complex, high-dimensional systems evolving on networks. However, these measures are all fundamentally rooted in Shannon entropy and symbol dynamics. In this paper, we explore, for the first time, whether and how a popular conditional-entropy based measure --Sample Entropy (SampEn)-- can be effectively defined for graph signals and used to characterise the nonlinear dynamics of data on complex networks. We introduce sample entropy for graph signals (SampEnG), a unified framework that generalises classical sample entropy from uni- and bi-dimensional signals, including time series and images, by building on topology-aware embeddings using multi-hop neighbourhoods and computing finite scale of correlation sums in the continuous embedding state space. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including weather station, wireless sensor monitoring, and traffic systems, verify that SampEnG recovers known nonlinear dynamical features on paths and grids. In the traffic-flow analysis, SampEnG on a directed topology (encoding causal flow constraint) is particularly sensitive to phase transitions between free-flow and congestion, offering information that is complementary to existing Shannon-entropy based approaches. We expect SampEnG to open up new ways to analyse graph signals, generalising sample entropy and the concept of conditional entropy to extending nonlinear analysis to a wide variety of network data.

ANCHOR: Adaptive Network based on Cascaded Harmonic Offset Routing

Time series analysis plays a foundational role in a wide range of real-world applications, yet accurately modeling complex non-stationary signals remains a shared challenge across downstream tasks. Existing methods attempt to extract features directly from one-dimensional sequences, making it difficult to handle the widely observed dynamic phase drift and discrete quantization error. To address this issue, we decouple temporal evolution into macroscopic physical periods and microscopic phase perturbations, and inject frequency-domain priors derived from the Real Fast Fourier Transform (RFFT) into the underlying spatial sampling process. Based on this idea, we propose a Frequency-Guided Deformable Module (FGDM) to adaptively compensate for microscopic phase deviations. Built upon FGDM, we further develop an Adaptive Network based on Cascaded Harmonic Offset Routing (ANCHOR) as a general-purpose backbone for time-series modeling. Through orthogonal channel partitioning and a progressive residual architecture, ANCHOR efficiently decouples multi-scale harmonic features while substantially suppressing the computational redundancy of multi-branch networks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ANCHOR achieves the best performance in most short-term forecasting sub-tasks and exhibits strong competitiveness on several specific sub-tasks in anomaly detection and time-series classification, validating its effectiveness as a universal time-series foundation backbone.

YOLOv11 Demystified: A Practical Guide to High-Performance Object Detection

YOLOv11 is the latest iteration in the You Only Look Once (YOLO) series of real-time object detectors, introducing novel architectural modules to improve feature extraction and small-object detection. In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of YOLOv11, including its backbone, neck, and head components. The model key innovations, the C3K2 blocks, Spatial Pyramid Pooling - Fast (SPPF), and C2PSA (Cross Stage Partial with Spatial Attention) modules enhance spatial feature processing while preserving speed. We compare YOLOv11 performance to prior YOLO versions on standard benchmarks, highlighting improvements in mean Average Precision (mAP) and inference speed. Our results demonstrate that YOLOv11 achieves superior accuracy without sacrificing real-time capabilities, making it well-suited for applications in autonomous driving, surveillance, and video analytics.This work formalizes YOLOv11 in a research context, providing a clear reference for future studies.

Comparative analysis of dual-form networks for live land monitoring using multi-modal satellite image time series

Multi-modal Satellite Image Time Series (SITS) analysis faces significant computational challenges for live land monitoring applications. While Transformer architectures excel at capturing temporal dependencies and fusing multi-modal data, their quadratic computational complexity and the need to reprocess entire sequences for each new acquisition limit their deployment for regular, large-area monitoring. This paper studies various dual-form attention mechanisms for efficient multi-modal SITS analysis, that enable parallel training while supporting recurrent inference for incremental processing. We compare linear attention and retention mechanisms within a multi-modal spectro-temporal encoder. To address SITS-specific challenges of temporal irregularity and unalignment, we develop temporal adaptations of dual-form mechanisms that compute token distances based on actual acquisition dates rather than sequence indices. Our approach is evaluated on two tasks using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data: multi-modal SITS forecasting as a proxy task, and real-world solar panel construction monitoring. Experimental results demonstrate that dual-form mechanisms achieve performance comparable to standard Transformers while enabling efficient recurrent inference. The multimodal framework consistently outperforms mono-modal approaches across both tasks, demonstrating the effectiveness of dual mechanisms for sensor fusion. The results presented in this work open new opportunities for operational land monitoring systems requiring regular updates over large geographic areas.

Vocal Prognostic Digital Biomarkers in Monitoring Chronic Heart Failure: A Longitudinal Observational Study

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate which voice features can predict health deterioration in patients with chronic HF. Background: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic condition with progressive deterioration and acute decompensations, often requiring hospitalization and imposing substantial healthcare and economic burdens. Current standard-of-care (SoC) home monitoring, such as weight tracking, lacks predictive accuracy and requires high patient engagement. Voice is a promising non-invasive biomarker, though prior studies have mainly focused on acute HF stages. Methods: In a 2-month longitudinal study, 32 patients with HF collected daily voice recordings and SoC measures of weight and blood pressure at home, with biweekly questionnaires for health status. Acoustic analysis generated detailed vowel and speech features. Time-series features were extracted from aggregated lookback windows (e.g., 7 days) to predict next-day health status. Explainable machine learning with nested cross-validation identified top vocal biomarkers, and a case study illustrated model application. Results: A total of 21,863 recordings were analyzed. Acoustic vowel features showed strong correlations with health status. Time-series voice features within the lookback window outperformed corresponding standard care measures, achieving peak sensitivity and specificity of 0.826 and 0.782 versus 0.783 and 0.567 for SoC metrics. Key prognostic voice features identifying deterioration included delayed energy shift, low energy variability, and higher shimmer variability in vowels, along with reduced speaking and articulation rate, lower phonation ratio, decreased voice quality, and increased formant variability in speech. Conclusion: Voice-based monitoring offers a non-invasive approach to detect early health changes in chronic HF, supporting proactive and personalized care.

Fast and Interpretable Autoregressive Estimation with Neural Network Backpropagation

Autoregressive (AR) models remain widely used in time series analysis due to their interpretability, but convencional parameter estimation methods can be computationally expensive and prone to convergence issues. This paper proposes a Neural Network (NN) formulation of AR estimation by embedding the autoregressive structure directly into a feedforward NN, enabling coefficient estimation through backpropagation while preserving interpretability. Simulation experiments on 125,000 synthetic AR(p) time series with short-term dependence (1 <= p <= 5) show that the proposed NN-based method consistently recovers model coefficients for all series, while Conditional Maximum Likelihood (CML) fails to converge in approximately 55% of cases. When both methods converge, estimation accuracy is comparable with negligible differences in relative error, R2 and, perplexity/likelihood. However, when CML fails, the NN-based approach still provides reliable estimates. In all cases, the NN estimator achieves substantial computational gains, reaching a median speedup of 12.6x and up to 34.2x for higher model orders. Overall, results demonstrate that gradient-descent NN optimization can provide a fast and efficient alternative for interpretable AR parameter estimation.

Network Structure in UK Payment Flows: Evidence on Economic Interdependencies and Implications for Real-Time Measurement

Network analysis of inter-industry payment flows reveals structural economic relationships invisible to traditional bilateral measurement approaches, with significant implications for real-time economic monitoring. Analysing 532,346 UK payment records (2017--2024) across 89 industry sectors, we demonstrate that graph-theoretic features which include centrality measures and clustering coefficients improve payment flow forecasting by 8.8 percentage points beyond traditional time-series methods. Critically, network features prove most valuable during economic disruptions: during the COVID-19 pandemic, when traditional forecasting accuracy collapsed (R2} falling from 0.38 to 0.19), network-enhanced models maintained substantially better performance, with network contributions reaching +13.8 percentage points. The analysis identifies Financial Services, Wholesale Trade, and Professional Services as structurally central industries whose network positions indicate systemic importance beyond their transaction volumes. Network density increased 12.5\% over the sample period, with visible disruption during 2020 followed by recovery exceeding pre-pandemic integration levels. These findings suggest payment network monitoring could enhance official statistics production by providing leading indicators of structural economic change and improving nowcasting accuracy during periods when traditional temporal patterns prove unreliable.

Towards Intelligent Energy Security: A Unified Spatio-Temporal and Graph Learning Framework for Scalable Electricity Theft Detection in Smart Grids

Electricity theft and non-technical losses (NTLs) remain critical challenges in modern smart grids, causing significant economic losses and compromising grid reliability. This study introduces the SmartGuard Energy Intelligence System (SGEIS), an integrated artificial intelligence framework for electricity theft detection and intelligent energy monitoring. The proposed system combines supervised machine learning, deep learning-based time-series modeling, Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), and graph-based learning to capture both temporal and spatial consumption patterns. A comprehensive data processing pipeline is developed, incorporating feature engineering, multi-scale temporal analysis, and rule-based anomaly labeling. Deep learning models, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), and Autoencoders, are employed to detect abnormal usage patterns. In parallel, ensemble learning methods such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, and LightGBM are utilized for classification. To model grid topology and spatial dependencies, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are applied to identify correlated anomalies across interconnected nodes. The NILM module enhances interpretability by disaggregating appliance-level consumption from aggregate signals. Experimental results demonstrate strong performance, with Gradient Boosting achieving a ROC-AUC of 0.894, while graph-based models attain over 96% accuracy in identifying high-risk nodes. The hybrid framework improves detection robustness by integrating temporal, statistical, and spatial intelligence. Overall, SGEIS provides a scalable and practical solution for electricity theft detection, offering high accuracy, improved interpretability, and strong potential for real-world smart grid deployment.