Diagnostics for Individual-Level Prediction Instability in Machine Learning for Healthcare

In healthcare, predictive models increasingly inform patient-level decisions, yet little attention is paid to the variability in individual risk estimates and its impact on treatment decisions. For overparameterized models, now standard in machine learning, a substantial source of variability often goes undetected. Even when the data and model architecture are held fixed, randomness introduced by optimization and initialization can lead to materially different risk estimates for the same patient. This problem is largely obscured by standard evaluation practices, which rely on aggregate performance metrics (e.g., log-loss, accuracy) that are agnostic to individual-level stability. As a result, models with indistinguishable aggregate performance can nonetheless exhibit substantial procedural arbitrariness, which can undermine clinical trust. We propose an evaluation framework that quantifies individual-level prediction instability by using two complementary diagnostics: empirical prediction interval width (ePIW), which captures variability in continuous risk estimates, and empirical decision flip rate (eDFR), which measures instability in threshold-based clinical decisions. We apply these diagnostics to simulated data and GUSTO-I clinical dataset. Across observed settings, we find that for flexible machine-learning models, randomness arising solely from optimization and initialization can induce individual-level variability comparable to that produced by resampling the entire training dataset. Neural networks exhibit substantially greater instability in individual risk predictions compared to logistic regression models. Risk estimate instability near clinically relevant decision thresholds can alter treatment recommendations. These findings that stability diagnostics should be incorporated into routine model validation for assessing clinical reliability.

FuXi-Linear: Unleashing the Power of Linear Attention in Long-term Time-aware Sequential Recommendation

Modern recommendation systems primarily rely on attention mechanisms with quadratic complexity, which limits their ability to handle long user sequences and slows down inference. While linear attention is a promising alternative, existing research faces three critical challenges: (1) temporal signals are often overlooked or integrated via naive coupling that causes mutual interference between temporal and semantic signals while neglecting behavioral periodicity; (2) insufficient positional information provided by existing linear frameworks; and (3) a primary focus on short sequences and shallow architectures. To address these issues, we propose FuXi-Linear, a linear-complexity model designed for efficient long-sequence recommendation. Our approach introduces two key components: (1) a Temporal Retention Channel that independently computes periodic attention weights using temporal data, preventing crosstalk between temporal and semantic signals; (2) a Linear Positional Channel that integrates positional information through learnable kernels within linear complexity. Moreover, we demonstrate that FuXi-Linear exhibits a robust power-law scaling property at a thousand-length scale, a characteristic largely unexplored in prior linear recommendation studies. Extensive experiments on sequences of several thousand tokens demonstrate that FuXi-Linear outperforms state-of-the-art models in recommendation quality, while achieving up to 10$\times$ speedup in the prefill stage and up to 21$\times$ speedup in the decode stage compared to competitive baselines. Our code has been released in a public repository https://github.com/USTC-StarTeam/fuxi-linear.

Robust Skills, Brittle Grounding: Diagnosing Restricted Generalization in Vision-Language Action Policies via Multi-Object Picking

Vision-language action (VLA) policies often report strong manipulation benchmark performance with relatively few demonstrations, but it remains unclear whether this reflects robust language-to-object grounding or reliance on object--location correlations that do not transfer beyond the training distribution. We present a controlled multi-object picking study that progressively increases object placement variability up to full workspace randomization and evaluates held-out object--location pairings that break familiar associations without increasing spatial difficulty. Across these stress tests and data scaling, we find that for representative VLA policies, including SmolVLA and $π_{0.5}$, execution of the manipulation primitive remains substantially more reliable than instruction-conditioned task success in harder regimes, suggesting that manipulation skill acquisition is decoupled from instruction following. We recommend augmenting manipulation benchmarks with task ladders and decomposed metrics that separately measure primitive execution and instruction-conditioned success to better diagnose instruction-grounded generalization.

Robust Aggregation for Federated Sequential Recommendation with Sparse and Poisoned Data

Federated sequential recommendation distributes model training across user devices so that behavioural data remains local, reducing privacy risks. Yet, this setting introduces two intertwined difficulties. On the one hand, individual clients typically contribute only short and highly sparse interaction sequences, limiting the reliability of learned user representations. On the other hand, the federated optimisation process is vulnerable to malicious or corrupted client updates, where poisoned gradients can significantly distort the global model. These challenges are particularly severe in sequential recommendation, where temporal dynamics further complicate signal aggregation. To address this problem, we propose a robust aggregation framework tailored for federated sequential recommendation under sparse and adversarial conditions. Instead of relying on standard averaging, our method introduces a defence-aware aggregation mechanism that identifies and down-weights unreliable client updates while preserving informative signals from sparse but benign participants. The framework incorporates representation-level constraints to stabilise user and item embeddings, preventing poisoned or anomalous contributions from dominating the global parameter space. In addition, we integrate sequence-aware regularisation to maintain temporal coherence in user modelling despite limited local observations.

MovieTeller: Tool-augmented Movie Synopsis with ID Consistent Progressive Abstraction

With the explosive growth of digital entertainment, automated video summarization has become indispensable for applications such as content indexing, personalized recommendation, and efficient media archiving. Automatic synopsis generation for long-form videos, such as movies and TV series, presents a significant challenge for existing Vision-Language Models (VLMs). While proficient at single-image captioning, these general-purpose models often exhibit critical failures in long-duration contexts, primarily a lack of ID-consistent character identification and a fractured narrative coherence. To overcome these limitations, we propose MovieTeller, a novel framework for generating movie synopses via tool-augmented progressive abstraction. Our core contribution is a training-free, tool-augmented, fact-grounded generation process. Instead of requiring costly model fine-tuning, our framework directly leverages off-the-shelf models in a plug-and-play manner. We first invoke a specialized face recognition model as an external "tool" to establish Factual Groundings--precise character identities and their corresponding bounding boxes. These groundings are then injected into the prompt to steer the VLM's reasoning, ensuring the generated scene descriptions are anchored to verifiable facts. Furthermore, our progressive abstraction pipeline decomposes the summarization of a full-length movie into a multi-stage process, effectively mitigating the context length limitations of current VLMs. Experiments demonstrate that our approach yields significant improvements in factual accuracy, character consistency, and overall narrative coherence compared to end-to-end baselines.

From Agnostic to Specific: Latent Preference Diffusion for Multi-Behavior Sequential Recommendation

Multi-behavior sequential recommendation (MBSR) aims to learn the dynamic and heterogeneous interactions of users' multi-behavior sequences, so as to capture user preferences under target behavior for the next interacted item prediction. Unlike previous methods that adopt unidirectional modeling by mapping auxiliary behaviors to target behavior, recent concerns are shifting from behavior-fixed to behavior-specific recommendation. However, these methods still ignore the user's latent preference that underlying decision-making, leading to suboptimal solutions. Meanwhile, due to the asymmetric deterministic between items and behaviors, discriminative paradigm based on preference scoring is unsuitable to capture the uncertainty from low-entropy behaviors to high-entropy items, failing to provide efficient and diverse recommendation. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{FatsMB}, a framework based diffusion model that guides preference generation \textit{\textbf{F}rom Behavior-\textbf{A}gnostic \textbf{T}o Behavior-\textbf{S}pecific} in latent spaces, enabling diverse and accurate \textit{\textbf{M}ulti-\textbf{B}ehavior Sequential Recommendation}. Specifically, we design a Multi-Behavior AutoEncoder (MBAE) to construct a unified user latent preference space, facilitating interaction and collaboration across Behaviors, within Behavior-aware RoPE (BaRoPE) employed for multiple information fusion. Subsequently, we conduct target behavior-specific preference transfer in the latent space, enriching with informative priors. A Multi-Condition Guided Layer Normalization (MCGLN) is introduced for the denoising. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

Fine-grained Semantics Integration for Large Language Model-based Recommendation

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shifted in recommendation systems from the discriminative paradigm to the LLM-based generative paradigm, where the recommender autoregressively generates sequences of semantic identifiers (SIDs) for target items conditioned on historical interaction. While prevalent LLM-based recommenders have demonstrated performance gains by aligning pretrained LLMs between the language space and the SID space, modeling the SID space still faces two fundamental challenges: (1) Semantically Meaningless Initialization: SID tokens are randomly initialized, severing the semantic linkage between the SID space and the pretrained language space at start point, and (2) Coarse-grained Alignment: existing SFT-based alignment tasks primarily focus on item-level optimization, while overlooking the semantics of individual tokens within SID sequences.To address these challenges, we propose TS-Rec, which can integrate Token-level Semantics into LLM-based Recommenders. Specifically, TS-Rec comprises two key components: (1) Semantic-Aware embedding Initialization (SA-Init), which initializes SID token embeddings by applying mean pooling to the pretrained embeddings of keywords extracted by a teacher model; and (2) Token-level Semantic Alignment (TS-Align), which aligns individual tokens within the SID sequence with the shared semantics of the corresponding item clusters. Extensive experiments on two real-world benchmarks demonstrate that TS-Rec consistently outperforms traditional and generative baselines across all standard metrics. The results demonstrate that integrating fine-grained semantic information significantly enhances the performance of LLM-based generative recommenders.

Modality-Guided Mixture of Graph Experts with Entropy-Triggered Routing for Multimodal Recommendation

Multimodal recommendation enhances ranking by integrating user-item interactions with item content, which is particularly effective under sparse feedback and long-tail distributions. However, multimodal signals are inherently heterogeneous and can conflict in specific contexts, making effective fusion both crucial and challenging. Existing approaches often rely on shared fusion pathways, leading to entangled representations and modality imbalance. To address these issues, we propose MAGNET, a Modality-Guided Mixture of Adaptive Graph Experts Network with Progressive Entropy-Triggered Routing for Multimodal Recommendation, designed to enhance controllability, stability, and interpretability in multimodal fusion. MAGNET couples interaction-conditioned expert routing with structure-aware graph augmentation, so that both what to fuse and how to fuse are explicitly controlled and interpretable. At the representation level, a dual-view graph learning module augments the interaction graph with content-induced edges, improving coverage for sparse and long-tail items while preserving collaborative structure via parallel encoding and lightweight fusion. At the fusion level, MAGNET employs structured experts with explicit modality roles-dominant, balanced, and complementary-enabling a more interpretable and adaptive combination of behavioral, visual, and textual cues. To further stabilize sparse routing and prevent expert collapse, we introduce a two-stage entropy-weighting mechanism that monitors routing entropy. This mechanism automatically transitions training from an early coverage-oriented regime to a later specialization-oriented regime, progressively balancing expert utilization and routing confidence. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements over strong baselines.

PuppetChat: Fostering Intimate Communication through Bidirectional Actions and Micronarratives

As a primary channel for sustaining modern intimate relationships, instant messaging facilitates frequent connection across distances. However, today's tools often dilute care; they favor single tap reactions and vague emojis that do not support two way action responses, do not preserve the feeling that the exchange keeps going without breaking, and are weakly tied to who we are and what we share. To address this challenge, we present PuppetChat, a dyadic messaging prototype that restores this expressive depth through embodied interaction. PuppetChat uses a reciprocity aware recommender to encourage responsive actions and generates personalized micronarratives from user stories to ground interactions in personal history. Our 10-day field study with 11 dyads of close partners or friends revealed that this approach enhanced social presence, supported more expressive self disclosure, and sustained continuity and shared memories.

SIGMA: A Semantic-Grounded Instruction-Driven Generative Multi-Task Recommender at AliExpress

With the rapid evolution of Large Language Models, generative recommendation is gradually reshaping the paradigm of recommender systems. However, most existing methods are still confined to the interaction-driven next-item prediction paradigm, failing to rapidly adapt to evolving trends or address diverse recommendation tasks along with business-specific requirements in real-world scenarios. To this end, we present SIGMA, a Semantic-Grounded Instruction-Driven Generative Multi-Task Recommender at AliExpress. Specifically, we first ground item entities in general semantics via a unified latent space capturing both semantic and collaborative relations. Building upon this, we develop a hybrid item tokenization method for precise modeling and efficient generation. Moreover, we construct a large-scale multi-task SFT dataset to empower SIGMA to fulfill various recommendation demands via instruction-following. Finally, we design a three-step item generation procedure integrated with an adaptive probabilistic fusion mechanism to calibrate the output distributions based on task-specific requirements for recommendation accuracy and diversity. Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate the effectiveness of SIGMA.