Intra-day Solar and Power Forecast for Optimization of Intraday Market Participation

The prediction of solar irradiance enhances reliability in photovoltaic (PV) solar plant generation and grid integration. In Colombia, PV plants face penalties if energy production deviates beyond governmental thresholds from intraday market offers. This research employs Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional-LSTM (Bi-LSTM) models, utilizing meteorological data from a PV plant in El Paso, Cesar, Colombia, to predict solar irradiance with a 6-hour horizon and 10-minute resolution. While Bi-LSTM showed superior performance, the LSTM model achieved comparable results with significantly reduced training time (6 hours versus 18 hours), making it computationally advantageous. The LSTM predictions were averaged to create an hourly resolution model, evaluated using Mean Absolute Error, Root-Mean-Square Error, Normalized Root-Mean-Square Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error metrics. Comparison with the Global Forecast System (GFS) revealed similar performance, with both models effectively capturing daily solar irradiance patterns. The forecast model integrates with an Object-Oriented power production model, enabling accurate energy offers in the intraday market while minimizing penalty costs.

CESAR: A Convolutional Echo State AutoencodeR for High-Resolution Wind Forecasting

An accurate and timely assessment of wind speed and energy output allows an efficient planning and management of this resource on the power grid. Wind energy, especially at high resolution, calls for the development of nonlinear statistical models able to capture complex dependencies in space and time. This work introduces a Convolutional Echo State AutoencodeR (CESAR), a spatio-temporal, neural network-based model which first extracts the spatial features with a deep convolutional autoencoder, and then models their dynamics with an echo state network. We also propose a two-step approach to also allow for computationally affordable inference, while also performing uncertainty quantification. We focus on a high-resolution simulation in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), an area where wind farm planning is currently ongoing, and show how CESAR is able to provide improved forecasting of wind speed and power for proposed building sites by up to 17% against the best alternative methods.

Secure Aggregation Meets Sparsification in Decentralized Learning

Decentralized learning (DL) faces increased vulnerability to privacy breaches due to sophisticated attacks on machine learning (ML) models. Secure aggregation is a computationally efficient cryptographic technique that enables multiple parties to compute an aggregate of their private data while keeping their individual inputs concealed from each other and from any central aggregator. To enhance communication efficiency in DL, sparsification techniques are used, selectively sharing only the most crucial parameters or gradients in a model, thereby maintaining efficiency without notably compromising accuracy. However, applying secure aggregation to sparsified models in DL is challenging due to the transmission of disjoint parameter sets by distinct nodes, which can prevent masks from canceling out effectively. This paper introduces CESAR, a novel secure aggregation protocol for DL designed to be compatible with existing sparsification mechanisms. CESAR provably defends against honest-but-curious adversaries and can be formally adapted to counteract collusion between them. We provide a foundational understanding of the interaction between the sparsification carried out by the nodes and the proportion of the parameters shared under CESAR in both colluding and non-colluding environments, offering analytical insight into the working and applicability of the protocol. Experiments on a network with 48 nodes in a 3-regular topology show that with random subsampling, CESAR is always within 0.5% accuracy of decentralized parallel stochastic gradient descent (D-PSGD), while adding only 11% of data overhead. Moreover, it surpasses the accuracy on TopK by up to 0.3% on independent and identically distributed (IID) data.

δ-CAUSAL: Exploring Defeasibility in Causal Reasoning

Defeasibility in causal reasoning implies that the causal relationship between cause and effect can be strengthened or weakened. Namely, the causal strength between cause and effect should increase or decrease with the incorporation of strengthening arguments (supporters) or weakening arguments (defeaters), respectively. However, existing works ignore defeasibility in causal reasoning and fail to evaluate existing causal strength metrics in defeasible settings. In this work, we present {\delta}-CAUSAL, the first benchmark dataset for studying defeasibility in causal reasoning. {\delta}-CAUSAL includes around 11K events spanning ten domains, featuring defeasible causality pairs, i.e., cause-effect pairs accompanied by supporters and defeaters. We further show current causal strength metrics fail to reflect the change of causal strength with the incorporation of supporters or defeaters in {\delta}-CAUSAL. To this end, we propose CESAR (Causal Embedding aSsociation with Attention Rating), a metric that measures causal strength based on token-level causal relationships. CESAR achieves a significant 69.7% relative improvement over existing metrics, increasing from 47.2% to 80.1% in capturing the causal strength change brought by supporters and defeaters. We further demonstrate even Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-3.5 still lag 4.5 and 10.7 points behind humans in generating supporters and defeaters, emphasizing the challenge posed by {\delta}-CAUSAL.

CESAR: Automatic Induction of Compositional Instructions for Multi-turn Dialogs

Instruction-based multitasking has played a critical role in the success of large language models (LLMs) in multi-turn dialog applications. While publicly available LLMs have shown promising performance, when exposed to complex instructions with multiple constraints, they lag against state-of-the-art models like ChatGPT. In this work, we hypothesize that the availability of large-scale complex demonstrations is crucial in bridging this gap. Focusing on dialog applications, we propose a novel framework, CESAR, that unifies a large number of dialog tasks in the same format and allows programmatic induction of complex instructions without any manual effort. We apply CESAR on InstructDial, a benchmark for instruction-based dialog tasks. We further enhance InstructDial with new datasets and tasks and utilize CESAR to induce complex tasks with compositional instructions. This results in a new benchmark called InstructDial++, which includes 63 datasets with 86 basic tasks and 68 composite tasks. Through rigorous experiments, we demonstrate the scalability of CESAR in providing rich instructions. Models trained on InstructDial++ can follow compositional prompts, such as prompts that ask for multiple stylistic constraints.