Analysis and classification of main risk factors causing stroke in Shanxi Province

In China, stroke is the first leading cause of death in recent years. It is a major cause of long-term physical and cognitive impairment, which bring great pressure on the National Public Health System. Evaluation of the risk of getting stroke is important for the prevention and treatment of stroke in China. A data set with 2000 hospitalized stroke patients in 2018 and 27583 residents during the year 2017 to 2020 is analyzed in this study. Due to data incompleteness, inconsistency, and non-structured formats, missing values in the raw data are filled with -1 as an abnormal class. With the cleaned features, three models on risk levels of getting stroke are built by using machine learning methods. The importance of "8+2" factors from China National Stroke Prevention Project (CSPP) is evaluated via decision tree and random forest models. Except for "8+2" factors the importance of features and SHAP1 values for lifestyle information, demographic information, and medical measurement are evaluated and ranked via a random forest model. Furthermore, a logistic regression model is applied to evaluate the probability of getting stroke for different risk levels. Based on the census data in both communities and hospitals from Shanxi Province, we investigate different risk factors of getting stroke and their ranking with interpretable machine learning models. The results show that Hypertension (Systolic blood pressure, Diastolic blood pressure), Physical Inactivity (Lack of sports), and Overweight (BMI) are ranked as the top three high-risk factors of getting stroke in Shanxi province. The probability of getting stroke for a person can also be predicted via our machine learning model.