Accuracy and Consistency of Space-based Vegetation Height Maps for Forest Dynamics in Alpine Terrain

Monitoring and understanding forest dynamics is essential for environmental conservation and management. This is why the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI) provides countrywide vegetation height maps at a spatial resolution of 0.5 m. Its long update time of 6 years, however, limits the temporal analysis of forest dynamics. This can be improved by using spaceborne remote sensing and deep learning to generate large-scale vegetation height maps in a cost-effective way. In this paper, we present an in-depth analysis of these methods for operational application in Switzerland. We generate annual, countrywide vegetation height maps at a 10-meter ground sampling distance for the years 2017 to 2020 based on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. In comparison to previous works, we conduct a large-scale and detailed stratified analysis against a precise Airborne Laser Scanning reference dataset. This stratified analysis reveals a close relationship between the model accuracy and the topology, especially slope and aspect. We assess the potential of deep learning-derived height maps for change detection and find that these maps can indicate changes as small as 250 $m^2$. Larger-scale changes caused by a winter storm are detected with an F1-score of 0.77. Our results demonstrate that vegetation height maps computed from satellite imagery with deep learning are a valuable, complementary, cost-effective source of evidence to increase the temporal resolution for national forest assessments.

Mixture of Experts with Uncertainty Voting for Imbalanced Deep Regression Problems

Data imbalance is ubiquitous when applying machine learning to real-world problems, particularly regression problems. If training data are imbalanced, the learning is dominated by the densely covered regions of the target distribution, consequently, the learned regressor tends to exhibit poor performance in sparsely covered regions. Beyond standard measures like over-sampling or re-weighting, there are two main directions to handle learning from imbalanced data. For regression, recent work relies on the continuity of the distribution; whereas for classification there has been a trend to employ mixture-of-expert models and let some ensemble members specialize in predictions for the sparser regions. Here, we adapt the mixture-of-experts approach to the regression setting. A main question when using this approach is how to fuse the predictions from multiple experts into one output. Drawing inspiration from recent work on probabilistic deep learning, we propose to base the fusion on the aleatoric uncertainties of individual experts, thus obviating the need for a separate aggregation module. In our method, dubbed MOUV, each expert predicts not only an output value but also its uncertainty, which in turn serves as a statistically motivated criterion to rely on the right experts. We compare our method with existing alternatives on multiple public benchmarks and show that MOUV consistently outperforms the prior art, while at the same time producing better calibrated uncertainty estimates. Our code is available at link-upon-publication.

Learning a Sensor-invariant Embedding of Satellite Data: A Case Study for Lake Ice Monitoring

Fusing satellite imagery acquired with different sensors has been a long-standing challenge of Earth observation, particularly across different modalities such as optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Here, we explore the joint analysis of imagery from different sensors in the light of representation learning: we propose to learn a joint, sensor-invariant embedding (feature representation) within a deep neural network. Our application problem is the monitoring of lake ice on Alpine lakes. To reach the temporal resolution requirement of the Swiss Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) office, we combine three image sources: Sentinel-1 SAR (S1-SAR), Terra MODIS and Suomi-NPP VIIRS. The large gaps between the optical and SAR domains and between the sensor resolutions make this a challenging instance of the sensor fusion problem. Our approach can be classified as a feature-level fusion that is learnt in a data-driven manner. The proposed network architecture has separate encoding branches for each image sensor, which feed into a single latent embedding. I.e., a common feature representation shared by all inputs, such that subsequent processing steps deliver comparable output irrespective of which sort of input image was used. By fusing satellite data, we map lake ice at a temporal resolution of <1.5 days. The network produces spatially explicit lake ice maps with pixel-wise accuracies >91.3% (respectively, mIoU scores >60.7%) and generalises well across different lakes and winters. Moreover, it sets a new state-of-the-art for determining the important ice-on and ice-off dates for the target lakes, in many cases meeting the GCOS requirement.