Benchmarking Multi-Modal Graph-based Social Media Popularity Prediction

Social media popularity prediction aims to forecast the future reach or influence of online content from early-stage observations. Accurate prediction enables key downstream applications, such as advertising optimization and strategic content planning by users, creators, and platforms. Despite substantial progress, existing popularity prediction works often fail to jointly consider multimodal content and temporal social interaction signals. Moreover, the literature remains highly fragmented across datasets, modalities, observation windows, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. This fragmentation prevents fair comparison and obscures a systematic understanding of how textual, visual, temporal, and interaction-based signals jointly shape popularity dynamics. To address these challenges, we introduce MMG-Pop, a Multi-modal Graph-based Popularity Prediction benchmark, which unifies datasets, modalities, temporal interaction signals, and representative baselines under a standardized evaluation protocol. Furthermore, we propose MMG-PopNet, a unified multi-modal graph-based network that jointly models the aforementioned multi-modal signals and graph-structured social interactions. Extensive experiments on MMG-Pop, comprising four datasets across Bluesky and Reddit platforms, demonstrate the superior performance of MMG-PopNet and yield new insights into cross-platform training generalization, multi-task prediction benefits, multi-modality contributions, and LLM prediction limitation. These findings establish a unified foundation for future research on social dynamics modeling and intervention under heterogeneous modalities and socially-aware agentic ecosystem paradigms.

Escaping the Context Bottleneck: Active Context Curation for LLM Agents via Reinforcement Learning

Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle with long-horizon tasks due to the "context bottleneck" and the "lost-in-the-middle" phenomenon, where accumulated noise from verbose environments degrades reasoning over multi-turn interactions. To address this issue, we introduce a symbiotic framework that decouples context management from task execution. Our architecture pairs a lightweight, specialized policy model, ContextCurator, with a powerful frozen foundation model, TaskExecutor. Trained via reinforcement learning, ContextCurator actively reduces information entropy in the working memory. It aggressively prunes environmental noise while preserving reasoning anchors, that is, sparse data points that are critical for future deductions. On WebArena, our framework improves the success rate of Gemini-3.0-flash from 36.4% to 41.2% while reducing token consumption by 8.8% (from 47.4K to 43.3K). On DeepSearch, it achieves a 57.1% success rate, compared with 53.9%, while reducing token consumption by a factor of 8. Remarkably, a 7B ContextCurator matches the context management performance of GPT-4o, providing a scalable and computationally efficient paradigm for autonomous long-horizon agents.

COINBench: Moving Beyond Individual Perspectives to Collective Intent Understanding

Understanding human intent is a high-level cognitive challenge for Large Language Models (LLMs), requiring sophisticated reasoning over noisy, conflicting, and non-linear discourse. While LLMs excel at following individual instructions, their ability to distill Collective Intent - the process of extracting consensus, resolving contradictions, and inferring latent trends from multi-source public discussions - remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we introduce COIN-BENCH, a dynamic, real-world, live-updating benchmark specifically designed to evaluate LLMs on collective intent understanding within the consumer domain. Unlike traditional benchmarks that focus on transactional outcomes, COIN-BENCH operationalizes intent as a hierarchical cognitive structure, ranging from explicit scenarios to deep causal reasoning. We implement a robust evaluation pipeline that combines a rule-based method with an LLM-as-the-Judge approach. This framework incorporates COIN-TREE for hierarchical cognitive structuring and retrieval-augmented verification (COIN-RAG) to ensure expert-level precision in analyzing raw, collective human discussions. An extensive evaluation of 20 state-of-the-art LLMs across four dimensions - depth, breadth, informativeness, and correctness - reveals that while current models can handle surface-level aggregation, they still struggle with the analytical depth required for complex intent synthesis. COIN-BENCH establishes a new standard for advancing LLMs from passive instruction followers to expert-level analytical agents capable of deciphering the collective voice of the real world. See our project page on COIN-BENCH.