Benchmarking Multi-Modal Graph-based Social Media Popularity Prediction

Social media popularity prediction aims to forecast the future reach or influence of online content from early-stage observations. Accurate prediction enables key downstream applications, such as advertising optimization and strategic content planning by users, creators, and platforms. Despite substantial progress, existing popularity prediction works often fail to jointly consider multimodal content and temporal social interaction signals. Moreover, the literature remains highly fragmented across datasets, modalities, observation windows, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. This fragmentation prevents fair comparison and obscures a systematic understanding of how textual, visual, temporal, and interaction-based signals jointly shape popularity dynamics. To address these challenges, we introduce MMG-Pop, a Multi-modal Graph-based Popularity Prediction benchmark, which unifies datasets, modalities, temporal interaction signals, and representative baselines under a standardized evaluation protocol. Furthermore, we propose MMG-PopNet, a unified multi-modal graph-based network that jointly models the aforementioned multi-modal signals and graph-structured social interactions. Extensive experiments on MMG-Pop, comprising four datasets across Bluesky and Reddit platforms, demonstrate the superior performance of MMG-PopNet and yield new insights into cross-platform training generalization, multi-task prediction benefits, multi-modality contributions, and LLM prediction limitation. These findings establish a unified foundation for future research on social dynamics modeling and intervention under heterogeneous modalities and socially-aware agentic ecosystem paradigms.

RL-Index: Reinforcement Learning for Retrieval Index Reasoning

Retrieving external knowledge is essential for solving real-world tasks, yet it remains challenging when the relationship between a query and its relevant knowledge involves implicit and complex reasoning beyond surface-level semantic or lexical matching (e.g., mathematical problems relying on the same theorem or coding requiring deep reasoning). Existing approaches primarily rely on query-side reasoning (e.g., query rewriting), which introduces significant online latency and underutilizes the opportunity to perform reasoning over the knowledge corpus itself (i.e., index-side reasoning). In this paper, we propose RL-Index, an agentic indexing framework that formulates retrieval index reasoning as a reinforcement learning problem. Instead of performing reasoning at query time, RL-Index shifts reasoning to the indexing stage by augmenting documents with LLM-generated rationales that explicitly encode the latent query-knowledge relationship. To optimize the quality of these rationales, we employ Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) and use retrieval similarity as a verifiable reward signal, enabling direct optimization of indexing decisions for retrieval effectiveness. Extensive experiments on the BRIGHT benchmark demonstrate that RL-Index consistently improves both retrieval and downstream question-answering performance, while significantly reducing online inference latency. Moreover, the learned rationale augmentation generalizes across diverse retrievers and generators, highlighting its robustness as a plug-and-play indexing strategy across different retrieval systems.

A Graph Perspective to Probe Structural Patterns of Knowledge in Large Language Models

Large language models have been extensively studied as neural knowledge bases for their knowledge access, editability, reasoning, and explainability. However, few works focus on the structural patterns of their knowledge. Motivated by this gap, we investigate these structural patterns from a graph perspective. We quantify the knowledge of LLMs at both the triplet and entity levels, and analyze how it relates to graph structural properties such as node degree. Furthermore, we uncover the knowledge homophily, where topologically close entities exhibit similar levels of knowledgeability, which further motivates us to develop graph machine learning models to estimate entity knowledge based on its local neighbors. This model further enables valuable knowledge checking by selecting triplets less known to LLMs. Empirical results show that using selected triplets for fine-tuning leads to superior performance.

From Semantics to Hierarchy: A Hybrid Euclidean-Tangent-Hyperbolic Space Model for Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning

Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) reasoning predicts future events based on historical data, but it's challenging due to the complex semantic and hierarchical information involved. Existing Euclidean models excel at capturing semantics but struggle with hierarchy. Conversely, hyperbolic models manage hierarchical features well but fail to represent complex semantics due to limitations in shallow models' parameters and the absence of proper normalization in deep models relying on the L2 norm. Current solutions, as curvature transformations, are insufficient to address these issues. In this work, a novel hybrid geometric space approach that leverages the strengths of both Euclidean and hyperbolic models is proposed. Our approach transitions from single-space to multi-space parameter modeling, effectively capturing both semantic and hierarchical information. Initially, complex semantics are captured through a fact co-occurrence and autoregressive method with normalizations in Euclidean space. The embeddings are then transformed into Tangent space using a scaling mechanism, preserving semantic information while relearning hierarchical structures through a query-candidate separated modeling approach, which are subsequently transformed into Hyperbolic space. Finally, a hybrid inductive bias for hierarchical and semantic learning is achieved by combining hyperbolic and Euclidean scoring functions through a learnable query-specific mixing coefficient, utilizing embeddings from hyperbolic and Euclidean spaces. Experimental results on four TKG benchmarks demonstrate that our method reduces error relatively by up to 15.0% in mean reciprocal rank on YAGO compared to previous single-space models. Additionally, enriched visualization analysis validates the effectiveness of our approach, showing adaptive capabilities for datasets with varying levels of semantic and hierarchical complexity.