AMD: Adaptive Momentum and Decoupled Contrastive Learning Framework for Robust Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction

Accurately predicting the future trajectories of traffic agents is essential in autonomous driving. However, due to the inherent imbalance in trajectory distributions, tail data in natural datasets often represents more complex and hazardous scenarios. Existing studies typically rely solely on a base model's prediction error, without considering the diversity and uncertainty of long-tail trajectory patterns. We propose an adaptive momentum and decoupled contrastive learning framework (AMD), which integrates unsupervised and supervised contrastive learning strategies. By leveraging an improved momentum contrast learning (MoCo-DT) and decoupled contrastive learning (DCL) module, our framework enhances the model's ability to recognize rare and complex trajectories. Additionally, we design four types of trajectory random augmentation methods and introduce an online iterative clustering strategy, allowing the model to dynamically update pseudo-labels and better adapt to the distributional shifts in long-tail data. We propose three different criteria to define long-tail trajectories and conduct extensive comparative experiments on the nuScenes and ETH$/$UCY datasets. The results show that AMD not only achieves optimal performance in long-tail trajectory prediction but also demonstrates outstanding overall prediction accuracy.

Beyond Patterns: Harnessing Causal Logic for Autonomous Driving Trajectory Prediction

Accurate trajectory prediction has long been a major challenge for autonomous driving (AD). Traditional data-driven models predominantly rely on statistical correlations, often overlooking the causal relationships that govern traffic behavior. In this paper, we introduce a novel trajectory prediction framework that leverages causal inference to enhance predictive robustness, generalization, and accuracy. By decomposing the environment into spatial and temporal components, our approach identifies and mitigates spurious correlations, uncovering genuine causal relationships. We also employ a progressive fusion strategy to integrate multimodal information, simulating human-like reasoning processes and enabling real-time inference. Evaluations on five real-world datasets--ApolloScape, nuScenes, NGSIM, HighD, and MoCAD--demonstrate our model's superiority over existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, with improvements in key metrics such as RMSE and FDE. Our findings highlight the potential of causal reasoning to transform trajectory prediction, paving the way for robust AD systems.

NEST: A Neuromodulated Small-world Hypergraph Trajectory Prediction Model for Autonomous Driving

Accurate trajectory prediction is essential for the safety and efficiency of autonomous driving. Traditional models often struggle with real-time processing, capturing non-linearity and uncertainty in traffic environments, efficiency in dense traffic, and modeling temporal dynamics of interactions. We introduce NEST (Neuromodulated Small-world Hypergraph Trajectory Prediction), a novel framework that integrates Small-world Networks and hypergraphs for superior interaction modeling and prediction accuracy. This integration enables the capture of both local and extended vehicle interactions, while the Neuromodulator component adapts dynamically to changing traffic conditions. We validate the NEST model on several real-world datasets, including nuScenes, MoCAD, and HighD. The results consistently demonstrate that NEST outperforms existing methods in various traffic scenarios, showcasing its exceptional generalization capability, efficiency, and temporal foresight. Our comprehensive evaluation illustrates that NEST significantly improves the reliability and operational efficiency of autonomous driving systems, making it a robust solution for trajectory prediction in complex traffic environments.

When, Where, and What? A Novel Benchmark for Accident Anticipation and Localization with Large Language Models

As autonomous driving systems increasingly become part of daily transportation, the ability to accurately anticipate and mitigate potential traffic accidents is paramount. Traditional accident anticipation models primarily utilizing dashcam videos are adept at predicting when an accident may occur but fall short in localizing the incident and identifying involved entities. Addressing this gap, this study introduces a novel framework that integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance predictive capabilities across multiple dimensions--what, when, and where accidents might occur. We develop an innovative chain-based attention mechanism that dynamically adjusts to prioritize high-risk elements within complex driving scenes. This mechanism is complemented by a three-stage model that processes outputs from smaller models into detailed multimodal inputs for LLMs, thus enabling a more nuanced understanding of traffic dynamics. Empirical validation on the DAD, CCD, and A3D datasets demonstrates superior performance in Average Precision (AP) and Mean Time-To-Accident (mTTA), establishing new benchmarks for accident prediction technology. Our approach not only advances the technological framework for autonomous driving safety but also enhances human-AI interaction, making predictive insights generated by autonomous systems more intuitive and actionable.

Characterized Diffusion and Spatial-Temporal Interaction Network for Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving

Trajectory prediction is a cornerstone in autonomous driving (AD), playing a critical role in enabling vehicles to navigate safely and efficiently in dynamic environments. To address this task, this paper presents a novel trajectory prediction model tailored for accuracy in the face of heterogeneous and uncertain traffic scenarios. At the heart of this model lies the Characterized Diffusion Module, an innovative module designed to simulate traffic scenarios with inherent uncertainty. This module enriches the predictive process by infusing it with detailed semantic information, thereby enhancing trajectory prediction accuracy. Complementing this, our Spatio-Temporal (ST) Interaction Module captures the nuanced effects of traffic scenarios on vehicle dynamics across both spatial and temporal dimensions with remarkable effectiveness. Demonstrated through exhaustive evaluations, our model sets a new standard in trajectory prediction, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), and Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) datasets across both short and extended temporal spans. This performance underscores the model's unparalleled adaptability and efficacy in navigating complex traffic scenarios, including highways, urban streets, and intersections.

A Cognitive-Driven Trajectory Prediction Model for Autonomous Driving in Mixed Autonomy Environment

As autonomous driving technology progresses, the need for precise trajectory prediction models becomes paramount. This paper introduces an innovative model that infuses cognitive insights into trajectory prediction, focusing on perceived safety and dynamic decision-making. Distinct from traditional approaches, our model excels in analyzing interactions and behavior patterns in mixed autonomy traffic scenarios. It represents a significant leap forward, achieving marked performance improvements on several key datasets. Specifically, it surpasses existing benchmarks with gains of 16.2% on the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), 27.4% on the Highway Drone (HighD), and 19.8% on the Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) dataset. Our proposed model shows exceptional proficiency in handling corner cases, essential for real-world applications. Moreover, its robustness is evident in scenarios with missing or limited data, outperforming most of the state-of-the-art baselines. This adaptability and resilience position our model as a viable tool for real-world autonomous driving systems, heralding a new standard in vehicle trajectory prediction for enhanced safety and efficiency.

World Models for Autonomous Driving: An Initial Survey

In the rapidly evolving landscape of autonomous driving, the capability to accurately predict future events and assess their implications is paramount for both safety and efficiency, critically aiding the decision-making process. World models have emerged as a transformative approach, enabling autonomous driving systems to synthesize and interpret vast amounts of sensor data, thereby predicting potential future scenarios and compensating for information gaps. This paper provides an initial review of the current state and prospective advancements of world models in autonomous driving, spanning their theoretical underpinnings, practical applications, and the ongoing research efforts aimed at overcoming existing limitations. Highlighting the significant role of world models in advancing autonomous driving technologies, this survey aspires to serve as a foundational reference for the research community, facilitating swift access to and comprehension of this burgeoning field, and inspiring continued innovation and exploration.

Human Observation-Inspired Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving in Mixed-Autonomy Traffic Environments

In the burgeoning field of autonomous vehicles (AVs), trajectory prediction remains a formidable challenge, especially in mixed autonomy environments. Traditional approaches often rely on computational methods such as time-series analysis. Our research diverges significantly by adopting an interdisciplinary approach that integrates principles of human cognition and observational behavior into trajectory prediction models for AVs. We introduce a novel "adaptive visual sector" mechanism that mimics the dynamic allocation of attention human drivers exhibit based on factors like spatial orientation, proximity, and driving speed. Additionally, we develop a "dynamic traffic graph" using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to capture spatio-temporal dependencies among agents. Benchmark tests on the NGSIM, HighD, and MoCAD datasets reveal that our model (GAVA) outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by at least 15.2%, 19.4%, and 12.0%, respectively. Our findings underscore the potential of leveraging human cognition principles to enhance the proficiency and adaptability of trajectory prediction algorithms in AVs. The code for the proposed model is available at our Github.