Large-scale flood modeling and forecasting with FloodCast

Large-scale hydrodynamic models generally rely on fixed-resolution spatial grids and model parameters as well as incurring a high computational cost. This limits their ability to accurately forecast flood crests and issue time-critical hazard warnings. In this work, we build a fast, stable, accurate, resolution-invariant, and geometry-adaptative flood modeling and forecasting framework that can perform at large scales, namely FloodCast. The framework comprises two main modules: multi-satellite observation and hydrodynamic modeling. In the multi-satellite observation module, a real-time unsupervised change detection method and a rainfall processing and analysis tool are proposed to harness the full potential of multi-satellite observations in large-scale flood prediction. In the hydrodynamic modeling module, a geometry-adaptive physics-informed neural solver (GeoPINS) is introduced, benefiting from the absence of a requirement for training data in physics-informed neural networks and featuring a fast, accurate, and resolution-invariant architecture with Fourier neural operators. GeoPINS demonstrates impressive performance on popular PDEs across regular and irregular domains. Building upon GeoPINS, we propose a sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS model to handle long-term temporal series and extensive spatial domains in large-scale flood modeling. Next, we establish a benchmark dataset in the 2022 Pakistan flood to assess various flood prediction methods. Finally, we validate the model in three dimensions - flood inundation range, depth, and transferability of spatiotemporal downscaling. Traditional hydrodynamics and sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS exhibit exceptional agreement during high water levels, while comparative assessments with SAR-based flood depth data show that sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS outperforms traditional hydrodynamics, with smaller prediction errors.

Causal Graph Neural Networks for Wildfire Danger Prediction

Wildfire forecasting is notoriously hard due to the complex interplay of different factors such as weather conditions, vegetation types and human activities. Deep learning models show promise in dealing with this complexity by learning directly from data. However, to inform critical decision making, we argue that we need models that are right for the right reasons; that is, the implicit rules learned should be grounded by the underlying processes driving wildfires. In that direction, we propose integrating causality with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) that explicitly model the causal mechanism among complex variables via graph learning. The causal adjacency matrix considers the synergistic effect among variables and removes the spurious links from highly correlated impacts. Our methodology's effectiveness is demonstrated through superior performance forecasting wildfire patterns in the European boreal and mediterranean biome. The gain is especially prominent in a highly imbalanced dataset, showcasing an enhanced robustness of the model to adapt to regime shifts in functional relationships. Furthermore, SHAP values from our trained model further enhance our understanding of the model's inner workings.

AIO2: Online Correction of Object Labels for Deep Learning with Incomplete Annotation in Remote Sensing Image Segmentation

While the volume of remote sensing data is increasing daily, deep learning in Earth Observation faces lack of accurate annotations for supervised optimization. Crowdsourcing projects such as OpenStreetMap distribute the annotation load to their community. However, such annotation inevitably generates noise due to insufficient control of the label quality, lack of annotators, frequent changes of the Earth's surface as a result of natural disasters and urban development, among many other factors. We present Adaptively trIggered Online Object-wise correction (AIO2) to address annotation noise induced by incomplete label sets. AIO2 features an Adaptive Correction Trigger (ACT) module that avoids label correction when the model training under- or overfits, and an Online Object-wise Correction (O2C) methodology that employs spatial information for automated label modification. AIO2 utilizes a mean teacher model to enhance training robustness with noisy labels to both stabilize the training accuracy curve for fitting in ACT and provide pseudo labels for correction in O2C. Moreover, O2C is implemented online without the need to store updated labels every training epoch. We validate our approach on two building footprint segmentation datasets with different spatial resolutions. Experimental results with varying degrees of building label noise demonstrate the robustness of AIO2. Source code will be available at https://github.com/zhu-xlab/AIO2.git.

ChatEarthNet: A Global-Scale Image-Text Dataset Empowering Vision-Language Geo-Foundation Models

An in-depth comprehension of global land cover is essential in Earth observation, forming the foundation for a multitude of applications. Although remote sensing technology has advanced rapidly, leading to a proliferation of satellite imagery, the inherent complexity of these images often makes them difficult for non-expert users to understand. Natural language, as a carrier of human knowledge, can be a bridge between common users and complicated satellite imagery. In this context, we introduce a global-scale, high-quality image-text dataset for remote sensing, providing natural language descriptions for Sentinel-2 data to facilitate the understanding of satellite imagery for common users. Specifically, we utilize Sentinel-2 data for its global coverage as the foundational image source, employing semantic segmentation labels from the European Space Agency's (ESA) WorldCover project to enrich the descriptions of land covers. By conducting in-depth semantic analysis, we formulate detailed prompts to elicit rich descriptions from ChatGPT. To enhance the dataset's quality, we introduce the manual verification process. This step involves manual inspection and correction to refine the dataset, thus significantly improving its accuracy and quality. Finally, we offer the community ChatEarthNet, a large-scale image-text dataset characterized by global coverage, high quality, wide-ranging diversity, and detailed descriptions. ChatEarthNet consists of 163,488 image-text pairs with captions generated by ChatGPT-3.5 and an additional 10,000 image-text pairs with captions generated by ChatGPT-4V(ision). This dataset has significant potential for training vision-language geo-foundation models and evaluating large vision-language models for remote sensing. The dataset will be made publicly available.

Task Specific Pretraining with Noisy Labels for Remote sensing Image Segmentation

In recent years, self-supervision has drawn a lot of attention in remote sensing society due to its ability to reduce the demand of exact labels in supervised deep learning model training. Self-supervision methods generally utilize image-level information to pretrain models in an unsupervised fashion. Though these pretrained encoders show effectiveness in many downstream tasks, their performance on segmentation tasks is often not as good as that on classification tasks. On the other hand, many easily available label sources (e.g., automatic labeling tools and land cover land use products) exist, which can provide a large amount of noisy labels for segmentation model training. In this work, we propose to explore the under-exploited potential of noisy labels for segmentation task specific pretraining, and exam its robustness when confronted with mismatched categories and different decoders during fine-tuning. Specifically, we inspect the impacts of noisy labels on different layers in supervised model training to serve as the basis of our work. Experiments on two datasets indicate the effectiveness of task specific supervised pretraining with noisy labels. The findings are expected to shed light on new avenues for improving the accuracy and versatility of pretraining strategies for remote sensing image segmentation.

Opening the Black-Box: A Systematic Review on Explainable AI in Remote Sensing

In recent years, black-box machine learning approaches have become a dominant modeling paradigm for knowledge extraction in Remote Sensing. Despite the potential benefits of uncovering the inner workings of these models with explainable AI, a comprehensive overview summarizing the used explainable AI methods and their objectives, findings, and challenges in Remote Sensing applications is still missing. In this paper, we address this issue by performing a systematic review to identify the key trends of how explainable AI is used in Remote Sensing and shed light on novel explainable AI approaches and emerging directions that tackle specific Remote Sensing challenges. We also reveal the common patterns of explanation interpretation, discuss the extracted scientific insights in Remote Sensing, and reflect on the approaches used for explainable AI methods evaluation. Our review provides a complete summary of the state-of-the-art in the field. Further, we give a detailed outlook on the challenges and promising research directions, representing a basis for novel methodological development and a useful starting point for new researchers in the field of explainable AI in Remote Sensing.

Efficient Subseasonal Weather Forecast using Teleconnection-informed Transformers

Subseasonal forecasting, which is pivotal for agriculture, water resource management, and early warning of disasters, faces challenges due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have revolutionized weather forecasting by achieving competitive predictive skills to numerical models. However, training such foundation models requires thousands of GPU days, which causes substantial carbon emissions and limits their broader applicability. Moreover, ML models tend to fool the pixel-wise error scores by producing smoothed results which lack physical consistency and meteorological meaning. To deal with the aforementioned problems, we propose a teleconnection-informed transformer. Our architecture leverages the pretrained Pangu model to achieve good initial weights and integrates a teleconnection-informed temporal module to improve predictability in an extended temporal range. Remarkably, by adjusting 1.1% of the Pangu model's parameters, our method enhances predictability on four surface and five upper-level atmospheric variables at a two-week lead time. Furthermore, the teleconnection-filtered features improve the spatial granularity of outputs significantly, indicating their potential physical consistency. Our research underscores the importance of atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections in driving future weather conditions. Besides, it presents a resource-efficient pathway for researchers to leverage existing foundation models on versatile downstream tasks.

PixelDINO: Semi-Supervised Semantic Segmentation for Detecting Permafrost Disturbances

Arctic Permafrost is facing significant changes due to global climate change. As these regions are largely inaccessible, remote sensing plays a crucial rule in better understanding the underlying processes not just on a local scale, but across the Arctic. In this study, we focus on the remote detection of retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS), a permafrost disturbance comparable to landslides induced by thawing. For such analyses from space, deep learning has become an indispensable tool, but limited labelled training data remains a challenge for training accurate models. To improve model generalization across the Arctic without the need for additional labelled data, we present a semi-supervised learning approach to train semantic segmentation models to detect RTS. Our framework called PixelDINO is trained in parallel on labelled data as well as unlabelled data. For the unlabelled data, the model segments the imagery into self-taught pseudo-classes and the training procedure ensures consistency of these pseudo-classes across strong augmentations of the input data. Our experimental results demonstrate that PixelDINO can improve model performance both over supervised baseline methods as well as existing semi-supervised semantic segmentation approaches, highlighting its potential for training robust models that generalize well to regions that were not included in the training data. The project page containing code and other materials for this study can be found at \url{https://khdlr.github.io/PixelDINO/}.

One for All: Toward Unified Foundation Models for Earth Vision

Foundation models characterized by extensive parameters and trained on large-scale datasets have demonstrated remarkable efficacy across various downstream tasks for remote sensing data. Current remote sensing foundation models typically specialize in a single modality or a specific spatial resolution range, limiting their versatility for downstream datasets. While there have been attempts to develop multi-modal remote sensing foundation models, they typically employ separate vision encoders for each modality or spatial resolution, necessitating a switch in backbones contingent upon the input data. To address this issue, we introduce a simple yet effective method, termed OFA-Net (One-For-All Network): employing a single, shared Transformer backbone for multiple data modalities with different spatial resolutions. Using the masked image modeling mechanism, we pre-train a single Transformer backbone on a curated multi-modal dataset with this simple design. Then the backbone model can be used in different downstream tasks, thus forging a path towards a unified foundation backbone model in Earth vision. The proposed method is evaluated on 12 distinct downstream tasks and demonstrates promising performance.

Towards Label Embedding -- Measuring classification difficulty

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning is a timely and vast field of research. In supervised learning, uncertainty can already occur in the very first stage of the training process, the labelling step. In particular, this is the case when not every instance can be unambiguously classified. The problem occurs for classifying instances, where classes may overlap or instances can not be clearly categorised. In other words, there is inevitable ambiguity in the annotation step and not necessarily a 'ground truth'. We look exemplary at the classification of satellite images. Each image is annotated independently by multiple labellers and classified into local climate zones (LCZs). For each instance we have multiple votes, leading to a distribution of labels rather than a single value. The main idea of this work is that we do not assume a ground truth label but embed the votes into a K-dimensional space, with K as the number of possible categories. The embedding is derived from the voting distribution in a Bayesian setup, modelled via a Dirichlet-Multinomial model. We estimate the model and posteriors using a stochastic Expectation Maximisation algorithm with Markov Chain Monte Carlo steps. While we focus on the particular example of LCZ classification, the methods developed in this paper readily extend to other situations where multiple annotators independently label texts or images. We also apply our approach to two other benchmark datasets for image classification to demonstrate this. Besides the embeddings themselves, we can investigate the resulting correlation matrices, which can be seen as generalised confusion matrices and reflect the semantic similarities of the original classes very well for all three exemplary datasets. The insights gained are valuable and can serve as general label embedding if a single ground truth per observation cannot be guaranteed.