Towards Label Embedding -- Measuring classification difficulty

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning is a timely and vast field of research. In supervised learning, uncertainty can already occur in the very first stage of the training process, the labelling step. In particular, this is the case when not every instance can be unambiguously classified. The problem occurs for classifying instances, where classes may overlap or instances can not be clearly categorised. In other words, there is inevitable ambiguity in the annotation step and not necessarily a 'ground truth'. We look exemplary at the classification of satellite images. Each image is annotated independently by multiple labellers and classified into local climate zones (LCZs). For each instance we have multiple votes, leading to a distribution of labels rather than a single value. The main idea of this work is that we do not assume a ground truth label but embed the votes into a K-dimensional space, with K as the number of possible categories. The embedding is derived from the voting distribution in a Bayesian setup, modelled via a Dirichlet-Multinomial model. We estimate the model and posteriors using a stochastic Expectation Maximisation algorithm with Markov Chain Monte Carlo steps. While we focus on the particular example of LCZ classification, the methods developed in this paper readily extend to other situations where multiple annotators independently label texts or images. We also apply our approach to two other benchmark datasets for image classification to demonstrate this. Besides the embeddings themselves, we can investigate the resulting correlation matrices, which can be seen as generalised confusion matrices and reflect the semantic similarities of the original classes very well for all three exemplary datasets. The insights gained are valuable and can serve as general label embedding if a single ground truth per observation cannot be guaranteed.

Sources of Uncertainty in Machine Learning -- A Statisticians' View

Machine Learning and Deep Learning have achieved an impressive standard today, enabling us to answer questions that were inconceivable a few years ago. Besides these successes, it becomes clear, that beyond pure prediction, which is the primary strength of most supervised machine learning algorithms, the quantification of uncertainty is relevant and necessary as well. While first concepts and ideas in this direction have emerged in recent years, this paper adopts a conceptual perspective and examines possible sources of uncertainty. By adopting the viewpoint of a statistician, we discuss the concepts of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, which are more commonly associated with machine learning. The paper aims to formalize the two types of uncertainty and demonstrates that sources of uncertainty are miscellaneous and can not always be decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic. Drawing parallels between statistical concepts and uncertainty in machine learning, we also demonstrate the role of data and their influence on uncertainty.

The Politics of Language Choice: How the Russian-Ukrainian War Influences Ukrainians' Language Use on Twitter

The use of language is innately political and often a vehicle of cultural identity as well as the basis for nation building. Here, we examine language choice and tweeting activity of Ukrainian citizens based on more than 4 million geo-tagged tweets from over 62,000 users before and during the Russian-Ukrainian War, from January 2020 to October 2022. Using statistical models, we disentangle sample effects, arising from the in- and outflux of users on Twitter, from behavioural effects, arising from behavioural changes of the users. We observe a steady shift from the Russian language towards the Ukrainian language already before the war, which drastically speeds up with its outbreak. We attribute these shifts in large part to users' behavioural changes. Notably, we find that many Russian-tweeting users perform a hard-switch to Ukrainian as a result of the war.

Going Beyond One-Hot Encoding in Classification: Can Human Uncertainty Improve Model Performance?

Technological and computational advances continuously drive forward the broad field of deep learning. In recent years, the derivation of quantities describing theuncertainty in the prediction - which naturally accompanies the modeling process - has sparked general interest in the deep learning community. Often neglected in the machine learning setting is the human uncertainty that influences numerous labeling processes. As the core of this work, label uncertainty is explicitly embedded into the training process via distributional labels. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on image classification with a remote sensing data set that contains multiple label votes by domain experts for each image: The incorporation of label uncertainty helps the model to generalize better to unseen data and increases model performance. Similar to existing calibration methods, the distributional labels lead to better-calibrated probabilities, which in turn yield more certain and trustworthy predictions.