Intrinsic Explainability of Multimodal Learning for Crop Yield Prediction

Multimodal learning enables various machine learning tasks to benefit from diverse data sources, effectively mimicking the interplay of different factors in real-world applications, particularly in agriculture. While the heterogeneous nature of involved data modalities may necessitate the design of complex architectures, the model interpretability is often overlooked. In this study, we leverage the intrinsic explainability of Transformer-based models to explain multimodal learning networks, focusing on the task of crop yield prediction at the subfield level. The large datasets used cover various crops, regions, and years, and include four different input modalities: multispectral satellite and weather time series, terrain elevation maps and soil properties. Based on the self-attention mechanism, we estimate feature attributions using two methods, namely the Attention Rollout (AR) and Generic Attention (GA), and evaluate their performance against Shapley-based model-agnostic estimations, Shapley Value Sampling (SVS). Additionally, we propose the Weighted Modality Activation (WMA) method to assess modality attributions and compare it with SVS attributions. Our findings indicate that Transformer-based models outperform other architectures, specifically convolutional and recurrent networks, achieving R2 scores that are higher by 0.10 and 0.04 at the subfield and field levels, respectively. AR is shown to provide more robust and reliable temporal attributions, as confirmed through qualitative and quantitative evaluation, compared to GA and SVS values. Information about crop phenology stages was leveraged to interpret the explanation results in the light of established agronomic knowledge. Furthermore, modality attributions revealed varying patterns across the two methods compared.[...]

Can Multitask Learning Enhance Model Explainability?

Remote sensing provides satellite data in diverse types and formats. The usage of multimodal learning networks exploits this diversity to improve model performance, except that the complexity of such networks comes at the expense of their interpretability. In this study, we explore how modalities can be leveraged through multitask learning to intrinsically explain model behavior. In particular, instead of additional inputs, we use certain modalities as additional targets to be predicted along with the main task. The success of this approach relies on the rich information content of satellite data, which remains as input modalities. We show how this modeling context provides numerous benefits: (1) in case of data scarcity, the additional modalities do not need to be collected for model inference at deployment, (2) the model performance remains comparable to the multimodal baseline performance, and in some cases achieves better scores, (3) prediction errors in the main task can be explained via the model behavior in the auxiliary task(s). We demonstrate the efficiency of our approach on three datasets, including segmentation, classification, and regression tasks. Code available at git.opendfki.de/hiba.najjar/mtl_explainability/.

Unifying VXAI: A Systematic Review and Framework for the Evaluation of Explainable AI

Modern AI systems frequently rely on opaque black-box models, most notably Deep Neural Networks, whose performance stems from complex architectures with millions of learned parameters. While powerful, their complexity poses a major challenge to trustworthiness, particularly due to a lack of transparency. Explainable AI (XAI) addresses this issue by providing human-understandable explanations of model behavior. However, to ensure their usefulness and trustworthiness, such explanations must be rigorously evaluated. Despite the growing number of XAI methods, the field lacks standardized evaluation protocols and consensus on appropriate metrics. To address this gap, we conduct a systematic literature review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and introduce a unified framework for the eValuation of XAI (VXAI). We identify 362 relevant publications and aggregate their contributions into 41 functionally similar metric groups. In addition, we propose a three-dimensional categorization scheme spanning explanation type, evaluation contextuality, and explanation quality desiderata. Our framework provides the most comprehensive and structured overview of VXAI to date. It supports systematic metric selection, promotes comparability across methods, and offers a flexible foundation for future extensions.

Data-Centric Machine Learning for Earth Observation: Necessary and Sufficient Features

The availability of temporal geospatial data in multiple modalities has been extensively leveraged to enhance the performance of machine learning models. While efforts on the design of adequate model architectures are approaching a level of saturation, focusing on a data-centric perspective can complement these efforts to achieve further enhancements in data usage efficiency and model generalization capacities. This work contributes to this direction. We leverage model explanation methods to identify the features crucial for the model to reach optimal performance and the smallest set of features sufficient to achieve this performance. We evaluate our approach on three temporal multimodal geospatial datasets and compare multiple model explanation techniques. Our results reveal that some datasets can reach their optimal accuracy with less than 20% of the temporal instances, while in other datasets, the time series of a single band from a single modality is sufficient.

Explainability of Sub-Field Level Crop Yield Prediction using Remote Sensing

Crop yield forecasting plays a significant role in addressing growing concerns about food security and guiding decision-making for policymakers and farmers. When deep learning is employed, understanding the learning and decision-making processes of the models, as well as their interaction with the input data, is crucial for establishing trust in the models and gaining insight into their reliability. In this study, we focus on the task of crop yield prediction, specifically for soybean, wheat, and rapeseed crops in Argentina, Uruguay, and Germany. Our goal is to develop and explain predictive models for these crops, using a large dataset of satellite images, additional data modalities, and crop yield maps. We employ a long short-term memory network and investigate the impact of using different temporal samplings of the satellite data and the benefit of adding more relevant modalities. For model explainability, we utilize feature attribution methods to quantify input feature contributions, identify critical growth stages, analyze yield variability at the field level, and explain less accurate predictions. The modeling results show an improvement when adding more modalities or using all available instances of satellite data. The explainability results reveal distinct feature importance patterns for each crop and region. We further found that the most influential growth stages on the prediction are dependent on the temporal sampling of the input data. We demonstrated how these critical growth stages, which hold significant agronomic value, closely align with the existing literature in agronomy and crop development biology.

XAI-Guided Enhancement of Vegetation Indices for Crop Mapping

Vegetation indices allow to efficiently monitor vegetation growth and agricultural activities. Previous generations of satellites were capturing a limited number of spectral bands, and a few expert-designed vegetation indices were sufficient to harness their potential. New generations of multi- and hyperspectral satellites can however capture additional bands, but are not yet efficiently exploited. In this work, we propose an explainable-AI-based method to select and design suitable vegetation indices. We first train a deep neural network using multispectral satellite data, then extract feature importance to identify the most influential bands. We subsequently select suitable existing vegetation indices or modify them to incorporate the identified bands and retrain our model. We validate our approach on a crop classification task. Our results indicate that models trained on individual indices achieve comparable results to the baseline model trained on all bands, while the combination of two indices surpasses the baseline in certain cases.

Opening the Black-Box: A Systematic Review on Explainable AI in Remote Sensing

In recent years, black-box machine learning approaches have become a dominant modeling paradigm for knowledge extraction in Remote Sensing. Despite the potential benefits of uncovering the inner workings of these models with explainable AI, a comprehensive overview summarizing the used explainable AI methods and their objectives, findings, and challenges in Remote Sensing applications is still missing. In this paper, we address this issue by performing a systematic review to identify the key trends of how explainable AI is used in Remote Sensing and shed light on novel explainable AI approaches and emerging directions that tackle specific Remote Sensing challenges. We also reveal the common patterns of explanation interpretation, discuss the extracted scientific insights in Remote Sensing, and reflect on the approaches used for explainable AI methods evaluation. Our review provides a complete summary of the state-of-the-art in the field. Further, we give a detailed outlook on the challenges and promising research directions, representing a basis for novel methodological development and a useful starting point for new researchers in the field of explainable AI in Remote Sensing.

Adaptive Fusion of Multi-view Remote Sensing data for Optimal Sub-field Crop Yield Prediction

Accurate crop yield prediction is of utmost importance for informed decision-making in agriculture, aiding farmers, and industry stakeholders. However, this task is complex and depends on multiple factors, such as environmental conditions, soil properties, and management practices. Combining heterogeneous data views poses a fusion challenge, like identifying the view-specific contribution to the predictive task. We present a novel multi-view learning approach to predict crop yield for different crops (soybean, wheat, rapeseed) and regions (Argentina, Uruguay, and Germany). Our multi-view input data includes multi-spectral optical images from Sentinel-2 satellites and weather data as dynamic features during the crop growing season, complemented by static features like soil properties and topographic information. To effectively fuse the data, we introduce a Multi-view Gated Fusion (MVGF) model, comprising dedicated view-encoders and a Gated Unit (GU) module. The view-encoders handle the heterogeneity of data sources with varying temporal resolutions by learning a view-specific representation. These representations are adaptively fused via a weighted sum. The fusion weights are computed for each sample by the GU using a concatenation of the view-representations. The MVGF model is trained at sub-field level with 10 m resolution pixels. Our evaluations show that the MVGF outperforms conventional models on the same task, achieving the best results by incorporating all the data sources, unlike the usual fusion results in the literature. For Argentina, the MVGF model achieves an R2 value of 0.68 at sub-field yield prediction, while at field level evaluation (comparing field averages), it reaches around 0.80 across different countries. The GU module learned different weights based on the country and crop-type, aligning with the variable significance of each data source to the prediction task.

Predicting Crop Yield With Machine Learning: An Extensive Analysis Of Input Modalities And Models On a Field and sub-field Level

We introduce a simple yet effective early fusion method for crop yield prediction that handles multiple input modalities with different temporal and spatial resolutions. We use high-resolution crop yield maps as ground truth data to train crop and machine learning model agnostic methods at the sub-field level. We use Sentinel-2 satellite imagery as the primary modality for input data with other complementary modalities, including weather, soil, and DEM data. The proposed method uses input modalities available with global coverage, making the framework globally scalable. We explicitly highlight the importance of input modalities for crop yield prediction and emphasize that the best-performing combination of input modalities depends on region, crop, and chosen model.