MoTime: A Dataset Suite for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting

While multimodal data sources are increasingly available from real-world forecasting, most existing research remains on unimodal time series. In this work, we present MoTime, a suite of multimodal time series forecasting datasets that pair temporal signals with external modalities such as text, metadata, and images. Covering diverse domains, MoTime supports structured evaluation of modality utility under two scenarios: 1) the common forecasting task, where varying-length history is available, and 2) cold-start forecasting, where no historical data is available. Experiments show that external modalities can improve forecasting performance in both scenarios, with particularly strong benefits for short series in some datasets, though the impact varies depending on data characteristics. By making datasets and findings publicly available, we aim to support more comprehensive and realistic benchmarks in future multimodal time series forecasting research.

VerifiAgent: a Unified Verification Agent in Language Model Reasoning

Large language models demonstrate remarkable reasoning capabilities but often produce unreliable or incorrect responses. Existing verification methods are typically model-specific or domain-restricted, requiring significant computational resources and lacking scalability across diverse reasoning tasks. To address these limitations, we propose VerifiAgent, a unified verification agent that integrates two levels of verification: meta-verification, which assesses completeness and consistency in model responses, and tool-based adaptive verification, where VerifiAgent autonomously selects appropriate verification tools based on the reasoning type, including mathematical, logical, or commonsense reasoning. This adaptive approach ensures both efficiency and robustness across different verification scenarios. Experimental results show that VerifiAgent outperforms baseline verification methods (e.g., deductive verifier, backward verifier) among all reasoning tasks. Additionally, it can further enhance reasoning accuracy by leveraging feedback from verification results. VerifiAgent can also be effectively applied to inference scaling, achieving better results with fewer generated samples and costs compared to existing process reward models in the mathematical reasoning domain. Code is available at https://github.com/Jiuzhouh/VerifiAgent

Assessing the Alignment of FOL Closeness Metrics with Human Judgement

The recent successful paradigm of solving logical reasoning problems with tool-augmented large language models (LLMs) leverages translation of natural language statements into First-Order Logic~(FOL) and external theorem provers. However, the correctness of FOL statements, comprising operators and text predicates, often goes unverified due to the lack of a reliable evaluation metric for comparing generated and ground-truth FOLs. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of sensitivity of existing metrics and their alignment with human judgement on FOL evaluation. Using ground-truth FOLs, we carefully designed various perturbations on the ground-truth to assess metric sensitivity. We sample FOL translation candidates for natural language statements and measure the ranking alignment between automatic metrics and human annotators. Our empirical findings highlight oversensitivity in the n-gram metric BLEU for text perturbations, the semantic graph metric Smatch++ for structural perturbations, and FOL metric for operator perturbation. We also observe a closer alignment between BertScore and human judgement. Additionally, we show that combining metrics enhances both alignment and sensitivity compared to using individual metrics.

Strategies for Improving NL-to-FOL Translation with LLMs: Data Generation, Incremental Fine-Tuning, and Verification

Logical reasoning is a fundamental task in natural language processing that presents significant challenges to Large Language Models (LLMs). The inherent characteristics of logical reasoning makes it well-suited for symbolic representations such as first-order logic (FOL). Research in symbolic logical reasoning explored FOL generation using state-of-the-art LLMs (i.e., GPT-4) to produce FOL translations of natural language (NL) statements, but errors in translation are usually not the focus. We address this by categorizing the translation errors in FOL statements generated by LLMs. To make progress towards improving the quality of FOL translations for smaller language models such as LLaMA-2 13B and Mistral 7B, we create ProofFOL, a high-quality FOL-annotated subset of ProofWriter dataset using GPT-4o. The models fine-tuned on this silver standard data achieve a significant gain in performance when compared to larger language models such as LLaMA-2 70B. In addition to improving the model using large data, we also tackle the issue of data scarcity and introduce an incremental framework encompassing of data augmentation and verification steps. In the augmentation process, a single pair of (premises, conclusion) is split into multiple new instances based on the predicates and FOLs. This data is used for fine-tuning, and the inference on this model generates FOLs with fewer errors over the model trained on the original data. Our investigation on the translation errors leads to generation of a perturbation dataset, which is used to train a verifier that corrects potential syntactic and semantic FOL translation errors. We demonstrate an efficient method for making the most of a limited existing human-annotated dataset. Our results show state-of-the-art performance for ProofWriter and ProntoQA datasets using ProofFOL on LLaMA-2 and Mistral models.

Scalable Transformer for High Dimensional Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Deep models for Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting have recently demonstrated significant success. Channel-dependent models capture complex dependencies that channel-independent models cannot capture. However, the number of channels in real-world applications outpaces the capabilities of existing channel-dependent models, and contrary to common expectations, some models underperform the channel-independent models in handling high-dimensional data, which raises questions about the performance of channel-dependent models. To address this, our study first investigates the reasons behind the suboptimal performance of these channel-dependent models on high-dimensional MTS data. Our analysis reveals that two primary issues lie in the introduced noise from unrelated series that increases the difficulty of capturing the crucial inter-channel dependencies, and challenges in training strategies due to high-dimensional data. To address these issues, we propose STHD, the Scalable Transformer for High-Dimensional Multivariate Time Series Forecasting. STHD has three components: a) Relation Matrix Sparsity that limits the noise introduced and alleviates the memory issue; b) ReIndex applied as a training strategy to enable a more flexible batch size setting and increase the diversity of training data; and c) Transformer that handles 2-D inputs and captures channel dependencies. These components jointly enable STHD to manage the high-dimensional MTS while maintaining computational feasibility. Furthermore, experimental results show STHD's considerable improvement on three high-dimensional datasets: Crime-Chicago, Wiki-People, and Traffic. The source code and dataset are publicly available https://github.com/xinzzzhou/ScalableTransformer4HighDimensionMTSF.git.

LLM Reading Tea Leaves: Automatically Evaluating Topic Models with Large Language Models

Topic modeling has been a widely used tool for unsupervised text analysis. However, comprehensive evaluations of a topic model remain challenging. Existing evaluation methods are either less comparable across different models (e.g., perplexity) or focus on only one specific aspect of a model (e.g., topic quality or document representation quality) at a time, which is insufficient to reflect the overall model performance. In this paper, we propose WALM (Words Agreement with Language Model), a new evaluation method for topic modeling that comprehensively considers the semantic quality of document representations and topics in a joint manner, leveraging the power of large language models (LLMs). With extensive experiments involving different types of topic models, WALM is shown to align with human judgment and can serve as a complementary evaluation method to the existing ones, bringing a new perspective to topic modeling. Our software package will be available at https://github.com/Xiaohao-Yang/Topic_Model_Evaluation, which can be integrated with many widely used topic models.

Navigating Conflicting Views: Harnessing Trust for Learning

Resolving conflicts is essential to make the decisions of multi-view classification more reliable. Much research has been conducted on learning consistent informative representations among different views, assuming that all views are identically important and strictly aligned. However, real-world multi-view data may not always conform to these assumptions, as some views may express distinct information. To address this issue, we develop a computational trust-based discounting method to enhance the existing trustworthy framework in scenarios where conflicts between different views may arise. Its belief fusion process considers the trustworthiness of predictions made by individual views via an instance-wise probability-sensitive trust discounting mechanism. We evaluate our method on six real-world datasets, using Top-1 Accuracy, AUC-ROC for Uncertainty-Aware Prediction, Fleiss' Kappa, and a new metric called Multi-View Agreement with Ground Truth that takes into consideration the ground truth labels. The experimental results show that computational trust can effectively resolve conflicts, paving the way for more reliable multi-view classification models in real-world applications.

A Survey on the Real Power of ChatGPT

ChatGPT has changed the AI community and an active research line is the performance evaluation of ChatGPT. A key challenge for the evaluation is that ChatGPT is still closed-source and traditional benchmark datasets may have been used by ChatGPT as the training data. In this paper, (i) we survey recent studies which uncover the real performance levels of ChatGPT in seven categories of NLP tasks, (ii) review the social implications and safety issues of ChatGPT, and (iii) emphasize key challenges and opportunities for its evaluation. We hope our survey can shed some light on its blackbox manner, so that researchers are not misleaded by its surface generation.

Improving Vietnamese-English Medical Machine Translation

Machine translation for Vietnamese-English in the medical domain is still an under-explored research area. In this paper, we introduce MedEV -- a high-quality Vietnamese-English parallel dataset constructed specifically for the medical domain, comprising approximately 360K sentence pairs. We conduct extensive experiments comparing Google Translate, ChatGPT (gpt-3.5-turbo), state-of-the-art Vietnamese-English neural machine translation models and pre-trained bilingual/multilingual sequence-to-sequence models on our new MedEV dataset. Experimental results show that the best performance is achieved by fine-tuning "vinai-translate" for each translation direction. We publicly release our dataset to promote further research.

Towards Uncertainty-Aware Language Agent

While Language Agents have achieved promising success by placing Large Language Models at the core of a more versatile design that dynamically interacts with the external world, the existing approaches neglect the notion of uncertainty during these interactions. We present the Uncertainty-Aware Language Agent (UALA), a framework that orchestrates the interaction between the agent and the external world using uncertainty quantification. Compared with other well-known counterparts like ReAct, our extensive experiments across 3 representative tasks (HotpotQA, StrategyQA, MMLU) and various LLM sizes demonstrate that UALA brings a significant improvement of performance, while having a substantially lower reliance on the external world (i.e., reduced number of tool calls and tokens). Our analyses provide various insights including the great potential of UALA compared with agent fine-tuning, and underscore the unreliability of verbalised confidence of LLMs as a proxy for uncertainty.