GIScholarBench: Benchmarking LLM Overconfidence in GIS Research

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in academic research workflows, but scholarly tasks require high factual precision and therefore expose a key weakness: overconfidence. Here, overconfidence is defined behaviorally as the tendency to produce confident, assertive, and well-formatted outputs even when the underlying knowledge is incomplete or unverifiable, rather than as a calibration gap between stated confidence and accuracy. To examine this issue, we introduce GIScholarBench, a benchmark built from 10,865 papers published in 25 core GIScience journals between 2020 and 2025. The benchmark covers three tasks with increasing cognitive complexity: metadata retrieval, literature linking, and research direction generation. We evaluate Claude Sonnet 4.5, Gemini 3, and ChatGPT 5.3 through their native web interfaces under real-world user-facing conditions. Results show consistent overconfidence across all tasks. In metadata retrieval, ChatGPT 5.3 achieves the highest accuracy, but all models still generate definitive titles and DOIs when predictions are wrong. In literature linking, Claude Sonnet 4.5 recovers the most references, but all models show a clear gap between top-ranked retrieval and longer citation lists, suggesting that references are extended beyond reliable retrieval capacity. In research direction generation, AI-generated directions show lower topic coverage, higher novel miss rates, and lower semantic diversity than real future-citing papers. These findings suggest that LLM overconfidence is task-invariant but takes different forms: factual overgeneration in retrieval, unreliable citation expansion in literature linking, and overconfidence in output completeness during research ideation.

Earth Embeddings Reveal Diverse Urban Signals from Space

Conventional urban indicators derived from censuses, surveys, and administrative records are often costly, spatially inconsistent, and slow to update. Recent geospatial foundation models enable Earth embeddings, compact satellite image representations transferable across downstream tasks, but their utility for neighborhood-scale urban monitoring remains unclear. Here, we benchmark three Earth embedding families, AlphaEarth, Prithvi, and Clay, for urban signal prediction across six U.S. metropolitan areas from 2020 to 2023. Using a unified supervised-learning framework, we predict 14 neighborhood-level indicators spanning crime, income, health, and travel behavior, and evaluate performance under four settings: global, city-wise, year-wise, and city-year. Results show that Earth embeddings capture substantial urban variation, with the highest predictive skill for outcomes more directly tied to built-environment structure, including chronic health burdens and dominant commuting modes. By contrast, indicators shaped more strongly by fine-scale behavior and local policy, such as cycling, remain difficult to infer. Predictive performance varies markedly across cities but remains comparatively stable across years, indicating strong spatial heterogeneity alongside temporal robustness. Exploratory analysis suggests that cross-city variation in predictive performance is associated with urban form in task-specific ways. Controlled dimensionality experiments show that representation efficiency is critical: compact 64-dimensional AlphaEarth embeddings remain more informative than 64-dimensional reductions of Prithvi and Clay. This study establishes a benchmark for evaluating Earth embeddings in urban remote sensing and demonstrates their potential as scalable, low-cost features for SDG-aligned neighborhood-scale urban monitoring.

DamageArbiter: A CLIP-Enhanced Multimodal Arbitration Framework for Hurricane Damage Assessment from Street-View Imagery

Analyzing street-view imagery with computer vision models for rapid, hyperlocal damage assessment is becoming popular and valuable in emergency response and recovery, but traditional models often act like black boxes, lacking interpretability and reliability. This study proposes a multimodal disagreement-driven Arbitration framework powered by Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) models, DamageArbiter, to improve the accuracy, interpretability, and robustness of damage estimation from street-view imagery. DamageArbiter leverages the complementary strengths of unimodal and multimodal models, employing a lightweight logistic regression meta-classifier to arbitrate cases of disagreement. Using 2,556 post-disaster street-view images, paired with both manually generated and large language model (LLM)-generated text descriptions, we systematically compared the performance of unimodal models (including image-only and text-only models), multimodal CLIP-based models, and DamageArbiter. Notably, DamageArbiter improved the accuracy from 74.33% (ViT-B/32, image-only) to 82.79%, surpassing the 80% accuracy threshold and achieving an absolute improvement of 8.46% compared to the strongest baseline model. Beyond improvements in overall accuracy, compared to visual models relying solely on images, DamageArbiter, through arbitration of discrepancies between unimodal and multimodal predictions, mitigates common overconfidence errors in visual models, especially in situations where disaster visual cues are ambiguous or subject to interference, reducing overconfidence but incorrect predictions. We further mapped and analyzed geo-referenced predictions and misclassifications to compare model performance across locations. Overall, this work advances street-view-based disaster assessment from coarse severity classification toward a more reliable and interpretable framework.