Bayesian uncertainty estimation improves clinical decision making in medical AI agents

Machine learning models for medical image analysis typically lack a reliable measure of confidence, limiting their use in ambiguous or atypical cases. Here we show that Monte Carlo dropout, applied to a multi-task chest-radiograph classifier (eight thoracic findings, 137,593 training images), provides an epistemic uncertainty signal that tracks generalisation across training-set scales and flags confident yet error-prone predictions. Adding this signal to the point prediction raised error-detection AUROC from 0.74 to 0.77 ($Δ$AUROC +0.023, 95% CI [+0.014, +0.033]). In a controlled 2x2 factorial experiment, a clinical-decision-support agent exploited this uncertainty only when it was delivered as a binary error-risk flag rather than as raw scores, cutting confident misdiagnoses on unreliable findings from 8.5% to 2.7%. Epistemic uncertainty estimation thus carries decision-relevant information beyond point predictions, but its value for downstream agents depends on how it is communicated.

Foundation-model-guided radiogenomic discovery linking cancer genomes to cancer scans

The function of many genes is still unknown, and conventional driver-discovery methods, which rely on how frequently a gene is mutated, cannot assess genes that are only rarely affected. Here we pair Evo~2-based genome analysis with routine clinical imaging to identify gene--phenotype associations at genome-wide scale. For every somatic mutation across three TCGA cohorts (cRCC=clear cell renal cell carcinoma, HCC=hepatocellular carcinoma, and BC=breast cancer; $n = 340$ total), Evo~2 predicts a severity score, with no task-specific training. Per-gene severity summaries are then correlated with radiomic features extracted from paired tumor segmentations, controlling for total mutation burden. In TCGA-cRCC ($n = 162$), this sweep recovers established renal-cancer drivers and identifies 46 additional genes reaching false discovery rate (FDR) significance absent from curated cancer-gene panels, several of which are Mendelian ciliopathy and cytoskeletal-disease genes. These results demonstrate that pairing a genomic language model with widely available clinical imaging can serve as a hypothesis-free discovery tool for gene--imaging associations invisible to conventional approaches.

Self-supervision drives representational convergence in medical foundation models more than clinical supervision

Medical image encoders from different groups are increasingly treated as interchangeable, on the assumption that scale and clinical supervision concentrate their representations onto a shared structure. Whether this convergence is real, what produces it, and whether it is clinically usable are untested, and the similarity measures behind such claims are fragile. We present a controlled dissection across 18 image and 7 text encoders, all open-weight and run locally, spanning 7M to 27B parameters and five imaging modalities, including 650,982 chest radiographs from six datasets. To isolate cause, we train encoders that vary only the objective under fixed data, architecture, and scale, and reproduce the effect in a synthetic model. Convergence is modest but above a random floor, driven by the self-supervised objective, not clinical supervision: matched self-supervised encoders aligned most (40.4% on chest radiography), with label-supervised (21.1%) and image-text (3.3%) far lower, and did not grow with size (Spearman 0.302, p=0.223) or capability. It is within-modality, does not reach clinical language, and does not reproduce how radiologists judge case similarity. Yet a linear classifier transfers across encoders and to five held-out hospitals, retaining about 85% of within-encoder performance. Convergence in medical imaging is therefore set by the pretraining objective, not inherited from scale or clinical supervision. Interoperability is accordingly something to design for through that objective, and to validate where the shared geometry is weakest, across patient subgroups and against clinical judgment.

CANDOR: Chance-Calibrated Discordance in Frozen Foundation Encoders

Frozen encoders are chosen by how well a lightweight head reads a finding from their features, not whether the geometry separates it. Nearest-neighbor discordance does, but with unequal banks the opposite-label neighbor wins on density, not geometry, so prevalence alone makes an uninformed encoder look blind. We introduce CANDOR, a discordance measure whose equal-size banks are symmetric under a label swap, fixing its chance level at exactly one half. Across 22 encoders, 20 datasets from 7 domains, and 605,443 images, this correction reverses the conclusion. Collapse falls below chance almost everywhere, so no encoder is blind, yet all are weak: the best chest model reads pneumothorax at 84.5 AUROC and still places 18.4% of those positives nearer an opposite-label film than its own kind in the same hospital. The same encoder that resolves bird species at 4.5 leaves chest findings at 42.8 and glaucoma at 49.8, at chance and worse than random weights. Such a case caps the normalized margin of any Lipschitz head, yet some head among eleven is correct on all but 2.8% of cases where one head misses 35.9%: the deficit is selection, not information. Erasure retention is associated with collapse; we detect no association with the objective, scale, recency, or size of the finding. Because the chance level is fixed, CANDOR can be read before any head is trained, flagging which findings a frozen encoder supports poorly.

Cross-modal linkage risk in clinical vision-language models

Vision-language models (VLMs) trained on paired chest radiographs and radiology reports learn a shared embedding space that can preserve instance-level image-report correspondence. This poses a privacy risk in settings where radiographs and reports are deliberately kept separate after acquisition, such as image-only data sharing or access-controlled reports, because a de-identified image may be re-linked to its original narrative report through cosine similarity alone. We formalized this as image-to-report retrieval and used public paired cohorts, in which the true pairing is known by design, as ground-truth benchmarks to audit the risk rather than as the privacy scenario. Evaluating VLMs of increasing clinical specialization on 406,241 paired examples from 126,804 patients across MIMIC-CXR (43,793 held-out pairs) and external CheXpert Plus (29,296 pairs), we found that re-linkage rose systematically with specialization: the strongest VLM retrieved the correct report at 15 times chance at a candidate pool of N = 100, 50 times chance at N = 10,000, and well above chance at full-database scale. The signal persisted under pathology-matched hard negatives that removed disease-label shortcuts, indicating correspondence beyond broad diagnostic categories. To reduce it without retraining, we froze both encoders and applied differentially private optimization only to the projection heads defining the alignment layer (epsilon = 0.34, delta = 6x10-6). This reduced Recall@1 by 61.8% at N = 10,000 on MIMIC-CXR and transferred to CheXpert Plus without retraining, while image-side utility was largely preserved: macro AUROC for linear-probe classification across 14 labels shifted only from 79.63% to 79.43%. Targeted DP finetuning of the shared alignment layer can substantially reduce cross-modal re-linkage without materially degrading the image representations that make these models clinically useful.

Safety and accuracy follow different scaling laws in clinical large language models

Clinical LLMs are often scaled by increasing model size, context length, retrieval complexity, or inference-time compute, with the implicit expectation that higher accuracy implies safer behavior. This assumption is incomplete in medicine, where a few confident, high-risk, or evidence-contradicting errors can matter more than average benchmark performance. We introduce SaFE-Scale, a framework for measuring how clinical LLM safety changes across model scale, evidence quality, retrieval strategy, context exposure, and inference-time compute. To instantiate this framework, we introduce RadSaFE-200, a Radiology Safety-Focused Evaluation benchmark of 200 multiple-choice questions with clinician-defined clean evidence, conflict evidence, and option-level labels for high-risk error, unsafe answer, and evidence contradiction. We evaluated 34 locally deployed LLMs across six deployment conditions: closed-book prompting (zero-shot), clean evidence, conflict evidence, standard RAG, agentic RAG, and max-context prompting. Clean evidence produced the strongest improvement, increasing mean accuracy from 73.5% to 94.1%, while reducing high-risk error from 12.0% to 2.6%, contradiction from 12.7% to 2.3%, and dangerous overconfidence from 8.0% to 1.6%. Standard RAG and agentic RAG did not reproduce this safety profile: agentic RAG improved accuracy over standard RAG and reduced contradiction, but high-risk error and dangerous overconfidence remained elevated. Max-context prompting increased latency without closing the safety gap, and additional inference-time compute produced only limited gains. Worst-case analysis showed that clinically consequential errors concentrated in a small subset of questions. Clinical LLM safety is therefore not a passive consequence of scaling, but a deployment property shaped by evidence quality, retrieval design, context construction, and collective failure behavior.

Case-Grounded Evidence Verification: A Framework for Constructing Evidence-Sensitive Supervision

Evidence-grounded reasoning requires more than attaching retrieved text to a prediction: a model should make decisions that depend on whether the provided evidence supports the target claim. In practice, this often fails because supervision is weak, evidence is only loosely tied to the claim, and evaluation does not test evidence dependence directly. We introduce case-grounded evidence verification, a general framework in which a model receives a local case context, external evidence, and a structured claim, and must decide whether the evidence supports the claim for that case. Our key contribution is a supervision construction procedure that generates explicit support examples together with semantically controlled non-support examples, including counterfactual wrong-state and topic-related negatives, without manual evidence annotation. We instantiate the framework in radiology and train a standard verifier on the resulting support task. The learned verifier substantially outperforms both case-only and evidence-only baselines, remains strong under correct evidence, and collapses when evidence is removed or swapped, indicating genuine evidence dependence. This behavior transfers across unseen evidence articles and an external case distribution, though performance degrades under evidence-source shift and remains sensitive to backbone choice. Overall, the results suggest that a major bottleneck in evidence grounding is not only model capacity, but the lack of supervision that encodes the causal role of evidence.

Differential privacy representation geometry for medical image analysis

Differential privacy (DP)'s effect in medical imaging is typically evaluated only through end-to-end performance, leaving the mechanism of privacy-induced utility loss unclear. We introduce Differential Privacy Representation Geometry for Medical Imaging (DP-RGMI), a framework that interprets DP as a structured transformation of representation space and decomposes performance degradation into encoder geometry and task-head utilization. Geometry is quantified by representation displacement from initialization and spectral effective dimension, while utilization is measured as the gap between linear-probe and end-to-end utility. Across over 594,000 images from four chest X-ray datasets and multiple pretrained initializations, we show that DP is consistently associated with a utilization gap even when linear separability is largely preserved. At the same time, displacement and spectral dimension exhibit non-monotonic, initialization- and dataset-dependent reshaping, indicating that DP alters representation anisotropy rather than uniformly collapsing features. Correlation analysis reveals that the association between end-to-end performance and utilization is robust across datasets but can vary by initialization, while geometric quantities capture additional prior- and dataset-conditioned variation. These findings position DP-RGMI as a reproducible framework for diagnosing privacy-induced failure modes and informing privacy model selection.

Can Agents Distinguish Visually Hard-to-Separate Diseases in a Zero-Shot Setting? A Pilot Study

The rapid progress of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has led to increasing interest in agent-based systems. While most prior work in medical imaging concentrates on automating routine clinical workflows, we study an underexplored yet clinically significant setting: distinguishing visually hard-to-separate diseases in a zero-shot setting. We benchmark representative agents on two imaging-only proxy diagnostic tasks, (1) melanoma vs. atypical nevus and (2) pulmonary edema vs. pneumonia, where visual features are highly confounded despite substantial differences in clinical management. We introduce a multi-agent framework based on contrastive adjudication. Experimental results show improved diagnostic performance (an 11-percentage-point gain in accuracy on dermoscopy data) and reduced unsupported claims on qualitative samples, although overall performance remains insufficient for clinical deployment. We acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in human annotations and the absence of clinical context, which further limit the translation to real-world settings. Within this controlled setting, this pilot study provides preliminary insights into zero-shot agent performance in visually confounded scenarios.

The role of self-supervised pretraining in differentially private medical image analysis

Differential privacy (DP) provides formal protection for sensitive data but typically incurs substantial losses in diagnostic performance. Model initialization has emerged as a critical factor in mitigating this degradation, yet the role of modern self-supervised learning under full-model DP remains poorly understood. Here, we present a large-scale evaluation of initialization strategies for differentially private medical image analysis, using chest radiograph classification as a representative benchmark with more than 800,000 images. Using state-of-the-art ConvNeXt models trained with DP-SGD across realistic privacy regimes, we compare non-domain-specific supervised ImageNet initialization, non-domain-specific self-supervised DINOv3 initialization, and domain-specific supervised pretraining on MIMIC-CXR, the largest publicly available chest radiograph dataset. Evaluations are conducted across five external datasets spanning diverse institutions and acquisition settings. We show that DINOv3 initialization consistently improves diagnostic utility relative to ImageNet initialization under DP, but remains inferior to domain-specific supervised pretraining, which achieves performance closest to non-private baselines. We further demonstrate that initialization choice strongly influences demographic fairness, cross-dataset generalization, and robustness to data scale and model capacity under privacy constraints. The results establish initialization strategy as a central determinant of utility, fairness, and generalization in differentially private medical imaging.