Exponentially Weighted Moving Models

An exponentially weighted moving model (EWMM) for a vector time series fits a new data model each time period, based on an exponentially fading loss function on past observed data. The well known and widely used exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) is a special case that estimates the mean using a square loss function. For quadratic loss functions EWMMs can be fit using a simple recursion that updates the parameters of a quadratic function. For other loss functions, the entire past history must be stored, and the fitting problem grows in size as time increases. We propose a general method for computing an approximation of EWMM, which requires storing only a window of a fixed number of past samples, and uses an additional quadratic term to approximate the loss associated with the data before the window. This approximate EWMM relies on convex optimization, and solves problems that do not grow with time. We compare the estimates produced by our approximation with the estimates from the exact EWMM method.

Approximate Sequential Optimization for Informative Path Planning

We consider the problem of finding an informative path through a graph, given initial and terminal nodes and a given maximum path length. We assume that a linear noise corrupted measurement is taken at each node of an underlying unknown vector that we wish to estimate. The informativeness is measured by the reduction in uncertainty in our estimate, evaluated using several metrics. We present a convex relaxation for this informative path planning problem, which we can readily solve to obtain a bound on the possible performance. We develop an approximate sequential method where the path is constructed segment by segment through dynamic programming. This involves solving an orienteering problem, with the node reward acting as a surrogate for informativeness, taking the first step, and then repeating the process. The method scales to very large problem instances and achieves performance not too far from the bound produced by the convex relaxation. We also demonstrate our method's ability to handle adaptive objectives, multimodal sensing, and multi-agent variations of the informative path planning problem.

Finding Moving-Band Statistical Arbitrages via Convex-Concave Optimization

We propose a new method for finding statistical arbitrages that can contain more assets than just the traditional pair. We formulate the problem as seeking a portfolio with the highest volatility, subject to its price remaining in a band and a leverage limit. This optimization problem is not convex, but can be approximately solved using the convex-concave procedure, a specific sequential convex programming method. We show how the method generalizes to finding moving-band statistical arbitrages, where the price band midpoint varies over time.

Factor Fitting, Rank Allocation, and Partitioning in Multilevel Low Rank Matrices

We consider multilevel low rank (MLR) matrices, defined as a row and column permutation of a sum of matrices, each one a block diagonal refinement of the previous one, with all blocks low rank given in factored form. MLR matrices extend low rank matrices but share many of their properties, such as the total storage required and complexity of matrix-vector multiplication. We address three problems that arise in fitting a given matrix by an MLR matrix in the Frobenius norm. The first problem is factor fitting, where we adjust the factors of the MLR matrix. The second is rank allocation, where we choose the ranks of the blocks in each level, subject to the total rank having a given value, which preserves the total storage needed for the MLR matrix. The final problem is to choose the hierarchical partition of rows and columns, along with the ranks and factors. This paper is accompanied by an open source package that implements the proposed methods.

Specifying and Solving Robust Empirical Risk Minimization Problems Using CVXPY

We consider robust empirical risk minimization (ERM), where model parameters are chosen to minimize the worst-case empirical loss when each data point varies over a given convex uncertainty set. In some simple cases, such problems can be expressed in an analytical form. In general the problem can be made tractable via dualization, which turns a min-max problem into a min-min problem. Dualization requires expertise and is tedious and error-prone. We demonstrate how CVXPY can be used to automate this dualization procedure in a user-friendly manner. Our framework allows practitioners to specify and solve robust ERM problems with a general class of convex losses, capturing many standard regression and classification problems. Users can easily specify any complex uncertainty set that is representable via disciplined convex programming (DCP) constraints.

Joint Graph Learning and Model Fitting in Laplacian Regularized Stratified Models

Laplacian regularized stratified models (LRSM) are models that utilize the explicit or implicit network structure of the sub-problems as defined by the categorical features called strata (e.g., age, region, time, forecast horizon, etc.), and draw upon data from neighboring strata to enhance the parameter learning of each sub-problem. They have been widely applied in machine learning and signal processing problems, including but not limited to time series forecasting, representation learning, graph clustering, max-margin classification, and general few-shot learning. Nevertheless, existing works on LRSM have either assumed a known graph or are restricted to specific applications. In this paper, we start by showing the importance and sensitivity of graph weights in LRSM, and provably show that the sensitivity can be arbitrarily large when the parameter scales and sample sizes are heavily imbalanced across nodes. We then propose a generic approach to jointly learn the graph while fitting the model parameters by solving a single optimization problem. We interpret the proposed formulation from both a graph connectivity viewpoint and an end-to-end Bayesian perspective, and propose an efficient algorithm to solve the problem. Convergence guarantees of the proposed optimization algorithm is also provided despite the lack of global strongly smoothness of the Laplacian regularization term typically required in the existing literature, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the efficiency of our approach compared to existing methods by various real-world numerical examples.

Fast Path Planning Through Large Collections of Safe Boxes

We present a fast algorithm for the design of smooth paths (or trajectories) that are constrained to lie in a collection of axis-aligned boxes. We consider the case where the number of these safe boxes is large, and basic preprocessing of them (such as finding their intersections) can be done offline. At runtime we quickly generate a smooth path between given initial and terminal positions. Our algorithm designs trajectories that are guaranteed to be safe at all times, and it detects infeasibility whenever such a trajectory does not exist. Our algorithm is based on two subproblems that we can solve very efficiently: finding a shortest path in a weighted graph, and solving (multiple) convex optimal control problems. We demonstrate the proposed path planner on large-scale numerical examples, and we provide an efficient open-source software implementation, fastpathplanning.

A Light-Weight Multi-Objective Asynchronous Hyper-Parameter Optimizer

We describe a light-weight yet performant system for hyper-parameter optimization that approximately minimizes an overall scalar cost function that is obtained by combining multiple performance objectives using a target-priority-limit scalarizer. It also supports a trade-off mode, where the goal is to find an appropriate trade-off among objectives by interacting with the user. We focus on the common scenario where there are on the order of tens of hyper-parameters, each with various attributes such as a range of continuous values, or a finite list of values, and whether it should be treated on a linear or logarithmic scale. The system supports multiple asynchronous simulations and is robust to simulation stragglers and failures.

Minimum-Distortion Embedding

We consider the vector embedding problem. We are given a finite set of items, with the goal of assigning a representative vector to each one, possibly under some constraints (such as the collection of vectors being standardized, i.e., have zero mean and unit covariance). We are given data indicating that some pairs of items are similar, and optionally, some other pairs are dissimilar. For pairs of similar items, we want the corresponding vectors to be near each other, and for dissimilar pairs, we want the corresponding vectors to not be near each other, measured in Euclidean distance. We formalize this by introducing distortion functions, defined for some pairs of the items. Our goal is to choose an embedding that minimizes the total distortion, subject to the constraints. We call this the minimum-distortion embedding (MDE) problem. The MDE framework is simple but general. It includes a wide variety of embedding methods, such as spectral embedding, principal component analysis, multidimensional scaling, dimensionality reduction methods (like Isomap and UMAP), force-directed layout, and others. It also includes new embeddings, and provides principled ways of validating historical and new embeddings alike. We develop a projected quasi-Newton method that approximately solves MDE problems and scales to large data sets. We implement this method in PyMDE, an open-source Python package. In PyMDE, users can select from a library of distortion functions and constraints or specify custom ones, making it easy to rapidly experiment with different embeddings. Our software scales to data sets with millions of items and tens of millions of distortion functions. To demonstrate our method, we compute embeddings for several real-world data sets, including images, an academic co-author network, US county demographic data, and single-cell mRNA transcriptomes.