Factor Fitting, Rank Allocation, and Partitioning in Multilevel Low Rank Matrices

We consider multilevel low rank (MLR) matrices, defined as a row and column permutation of a sum of matrices, each one a block diagonal refinement of the previous one, with all blocks low rank given in factored form. MLR matrices extend low rank matrices but share many of their properties, such as the total storage required and complexity of matrix-vector multiplication. We address three problems that arise in fitting a given matrix by an MLR matrix in the Frobenius norm. The first problem is factor fitting, where we adjust the factors of the MLR matrix. The second is rank allocation, where we choose the ranks of the blocks in each level, subject to the total rank having a given value, which preserves the total storage needed for the MLR matrix. The final problem is to choose the hierarchical partition of rows and columns, along with the ranks and factors. This paper is accompanied by an open source package that implements the proposed methods.

A Statistical View of Column Subset Selection

We consider the problem of selecting a small subset of representative variables from a large dataset. In the computer science literature, this dimensionality reduction problem is typically formalized as Column Subset Selection (CSS). Meanwhile, the typical statistical formalization is to find an information-maximizing set of Principal Variables. This paper shows that these two approaches are equivalent, and moreover, both can be viewed as maximum likelihood estimation within a certain semi-parametric model. Using these connections, we show how to efficiently (1) perform CSS using only summary statistics from the original dataset; (2) perform CSS in the presence of missing and/or censored data; and (3) select the subset size for CSS in a hypothesis testing framework.

RbX: Region-based explanations of prediction models

We introduce region-based explanations (RbX), a novel, model-agnostic method to generate local explanations of scalar outputs from a black-box prediction model using only query access. RbX is based on a greedy algorithm for building a convex polytope that approximates a region of feature space where model predictions are close to the prediction at some target point. This region is fully specified by the user on the scale of the predictions, rather than on the scale of the features. The geometry of this polytope - specifically the change in each coordinate necessary to escape the polytope - quantifies the local sensitivity of the predictions to each of the features. These "escape distances" can then be standardized to rank the features by local importance. RbX is guaranteed to satisfy a "sparsity axiom," which requires that features which do not enter into the prediction model are assigned zero importance. At the same time, real data examples and synthetic experiments show how RbX can more readily detect all locally relevant features than existing methods.

Weighted Low Rank Matrix Approximation and Acceleration

Low-rank matrix approximation is one of the central concepts in machine learning, with applications in dimension reduction, de-noising, multivariate statistical methodology, and many more. A recent extension to LRMA is called low-rank matrix completion (LRMC). It solves the LRMA problem when some observations are missing and is especially useful for recommender systems. In this paper, we consider an element-wise weighted generalization of LRMA. The resulting weighted low-rank matrix approximation technique therefore covers LRMC as a special case with binary weights. WLRMA has many applications. For example, it is an essential component of GLM optimization algorithms, where an exponential family is used to model the entries of a matrix, and the matrix of natural parameters admits a low-rank structure. We propose an algorithm for solving the weighted problem, as well as two acceleration techniques. Further, we develop a non-SVD modification of the proposed algorithm that is able to handle extremely high-dimensional data. We compare the performance of all the methods on a small simulation example as well as a real-data application.

Cross-validation: what does it estimate and how well does it do it?

Cross-validation is a widely-used technique to estimate prediction error, but its behavior is complex and not fully understood. Ideally, one would like to think that cross-validation estimates the prediction error for the model at hand, fit to the training data. We prove that this is not the case for the linear model fit by ordinary least squares; rather it estimates the average prediction error of models fit on other unseen training sets drawn from the same population. We further show that this phenomenon occurs for most popular estimates of prediction error, including data splitting, bootstrapping, and Mallow's Cp. Next, the standard confidence intervals for prediction error derived from cross-validation may have coverage far below the desired level. Because each data point is used for both training and testing, there are correlations among the measured accuracies for each fold, and so the usual estimate of variance is too small. We introduce a nested cross-validation scheme to estimate this variance more accurately, and show empirically that this modification leads to intervals with approximately correct coverage in many examples where traditional cross-validation intervals fail. Lastly, our analysis also shows that when producing confidence intervals for prediction accuracy with simple data splitting, one should not re-fit the model on the combined data, since this invalidates the confidence intervals.

Generalized Matrix Factorization

Unmeasured or latent variables are often the cause of correlations between multivariate measurements and are studied in a variety of fields such as psychology, ecology, and medicine. For Gaussian measurements, there are classical tools such as factor analysis or principal component analysis with a well-established theory and fast algorithms. Generalized Linear Latent Variable models (GLLVM) generalize such factor models to non-Gaussian responses. However, current algorithms for estimating model parameters in GLLVMs require intensive computation and do not scale to large datasets with thousands of observational units or responses. In this article, we propose a new approach for fitting GLLVMs to such high-volume, high-dimensional datasets. We approximate the likelihood using penalized quasi-likelihood and use a Newton method and Fisher scoring to learn the model parameters. Our method greatly reduces the computation time and can be easily parallelized, enabling factorization at unprecedented scale using commodity hardware. We illustrate application of our method on a dataset of 48,000 observational units with over 2,000 observed species in each unit, finding that most of the variability can be explained with a handful of factors.

Simultaneous Relevance and Diversity: A New Recommendation Inference Approach

Relevance and diversity are both important to the success of recommender systems, as they help users to discover from a large pool of items a compact set of candidates that are not only interesting but exploratory as well. The challenge is that relevance and diversity usually act as two competing objectives in conventional recommender systems, which necessities the classic trade-off between exploitation and exploration. Traditionally, higher diversity often means sacrifice on relevance and vice versa. We propose a new approach, heterogeneous inference, which extends the general collaborative filtering (CF) by introducing a new way of CF inference, negative-to-positive. Heterogeneous inference achieves divergent relevance, where relevance and diversity support each other as two collaborating objectives in one recommendation model, and where recommendation diversity is an inherent outcome of the relevance inference process. Benefiting from its succinctness and flexibility, our approach is applicable to a wide range of recommendation scenarios/use-cases at various sophistication levels. Our analysis and experiments on public datasets and real-world production data show that our approach outperforms existing methods on relevance and diversity simultaneously.

Feature-weighted elastic net: using "features of features" for better prediction

In some supervised learning settings, the practitioner might have additional information on the features used for prediction. We propose a new method which leverages this additional information for better prediction. The method, which we call the feature-weighted elastic net ("fwelnet"), uses these "features of features" to adapt the relative penalties on the feature coefficients in the elastic net penalty. In our simulations, fwelnet outperforms the lasso in terms of test mean squared error and usually gives an improvement in true positive rate or false positive rate for feature selection. We also apply this method to early prediction of preeclampsia, where fwelnet outperforms the lasso in terms of 10-fold cross-validated area under the curve (0.86 vs. 0.80). We also provide a connection between fwelnet and the group lasso and suggest how fwelnet might be used for multi-task learning.

Ridge Regularizaton: an Essential Concept in Data Science

Ridge or more formally $\ell_2$ regularization shows up in many areas of statistics and machine learning. It is one of those essential devices that any good data scientist needs to master for their craft. In this brief ridge fest I have collected together some of the magic and beauty of ridge that my colleagues and I have encountered over the past 40 years in applied statistics.