Introducing an Improved Information-Theoretic Measure of Predictive Uncertainty

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Functional trustworthiness of AI systems by statistically valid testing

The authors are concerned about the safety, health, and rights of the European citizens due to inadequate measures and procedures required by the current draft of the EU Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act for the conformity assessment of AI systems. We observe that not only the current draft of the EU AI Act, but also the accompanying standardization efforts in CEN/CENELEC, have resorted to the position that real functional guarantees of AI systems supposedly would be unrealistic and too complex anyways. Yet enacting a conformity assessment procedure that creates the false illusion of trust in insufficiently assessed AI systems is at best naive and at worst grossly negligent. The EU AI Act thus misses the point of ensuring quality by functional trustworthiness and correctly attributing responsibilities. The trustworthiness of an AI decision system lies first and foremost in the correct statistical testing on randomly selected samples and in the precision of the definition of the application domain, which enables drawing samples in the first place. We will subsequently call this testable quality functional trustworthiness. It includes a design, development, and deployment that enables correct statistical testing of all relevant functions. We are firmly convinced and advocate that a reliable assessment of the statistical functional properties of an AI system has to be the indispensable, mandatory nucleus of the conformity assessment. In this paper, we describe the three necessary elements to establish a reliable functional trustworthiness, i.e., (1) the definition of the technical distribution of the application, (2) the risk-based minimum performance requirements, and (3) the statistically valid testing based on independent random samples.

SITTA: A Semantic Image-Text Alignment for Image Captioning

Textual and semantic comprehension of images is essential for generating proper captions. The comprehension requires detection of objects, modeling of relations between them, an assessment of the semantics of the scene and, finally, representing the extracted knowledge in a language space. To achieve rich language capabilities while ensuring good image-language mappings, pretrained language models (LMs) were conditioned on pretrained multi-modal (image-text) models that allow for image inputs. This requires an alignment of the image representation of the multi-modal model with the language representations of a generative LM. However, it is not clear how to best transfer semantics detected by the vision encoder of the multi-modal model to the LM. We introduce two novel ways of constructing a linear mapping that successfully transfers semantics between the embedding spaces of the two pretrained models. The first aligns the embedding space of the multi-modal language encoder with the embedding space of the pretrained LM via token correspondences. The latter leverages additional data that consists of image-text pairs to construct the mapping directly from vision to language space. Using our semantic mappings, we unlock image captioning for LMs without access to gradient information. By using different sources of data we achieve strong captioning performance on MS-COCO and Flickr30k datasets. Even in the face of limited data, our method partly exceeds the performance of other zero-shot and even finetuned competitors. Our ablation studies show that even LMs at a scale of merely 250M parameters can generate decent captions employing our semantic mappings. Our approach makes image captioning more accessible for institutions with restricted computational resources.

Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

Learning to Modulate pre-trained Models in RL

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been successful in various domains like robotics, game playing, and simulation. While RL agents have shown impressive capabilities in their specific tasks, they insufficiently adapt to new tasks. In supervised learning, this adaptation problem is addressed by large-scale pre-training followed by fine-tuning to new down-stream tasks. Recently, pre-training on multiple tasks has been gaining traction in RL. However, fine-tuning a pre-trained model often suffers from catastrophic forgetting, that is, the performance on the pre-training tasks deteriorates when fine-tuning on new tasks. To investigate the catastrophic forgetting phenomenon, we first jointly pre-train a model on datasets from two benchmark suites, namely Meta-World and DMControl. Then, we evaluate and compare a variety of fine-tuning methods prevalent in natural language processing, both in terms of performance on new tasks, and how well performance on pre-training tasks is retained. Our study shows that with most fine-tuning approaches, the performance on pre-training tasks deteriorates significantly. Therefore, we propose a novel method, Learning-to-Modulate (L2M), that avoids the degradation of learned skills by modulating the information flow of the frozen pre-trained model via a learnable modulation pool. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Continual-World benchmark, while retaining performance on the pre-training tasks. Finally, to aid future research in this area, we release a dataset encompassing 50 Meta-World and 16 DMControl tasks.

Semantic HELM: An Interpretable Memory for Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning agents deployed in the real world often have to cope with partially observable environments. Therefore, most agents employ memory mechanisms to approximate the state of the environment. Recently, there have been impressive success stories in mastering partially observable environments, mostly in the realm of computer games like Dota 2, StarCraft II, or MineCraft. However, none of these methods are interpretable in the sense that it is not comprehensible for humans how the agent decides which actions to take based on its inputs. Yet, human understanding is necessary in order to deploy such methods in high-stake domains like autonomous driving or medical applications. We propose a novel memory mechanism that operates on human language to illuminate the decision-making process. First, we use CLIP to associate visual inputs with language tokens. Then we feed these tokens to a pretrained language model that serves the agent as memory and provides it with a coherent and interpretable representation of the past. Our memory mechanism achieves state-of-the-art performance in environments where memorizing the past is crucial to solve tasks. Further, we present situations where our memory component excels or fails to demonstrate strengths and weaknesses of our new approach.

Addressing Parameter Choice Issues in Unsupervised Domain Adaptation by Aggregation

We study the problem of choosing algorithm hyper-parameters in unsupervised domain adaptation, i.e., with labeled data in a source domain and unlabeled data in a target domain, drawn from a different input distribution. We follow the strategy to compute several models using different hyper-parameters, and, to subsequently compute a linear aggregation of the models. While several heuristics exist that follow this strategy, methods are still missing that rely on thorough theories for bounding the target error. In this turn, we propose a method that extends weighted least squares to vector-valued functions, e.g., deep neural networks. We show that the target error of the proposed algorithm is asymptotically not worse than twice the error of the unknown optimal aggregation. We also perform a large scale empirical comparative study on several datasets, including text, images, electroencephalogram, body sensor signals and signals from mobile phones. Our method outperforms deep embedded validation (DEV) and importance weighted validation (IWV) on all datasets, setting a new state-of-the-art performance for solving parameter choice issues in unsupervised domain adaptation with theoretical error guarantees. We further study several competitive heuristics, all outperforming IWV and DEV on at least five datasets. However, our method outperforms each heuristic on at least five of seven datasets.

Contrastive Tuning: A Little Help to Make Masked Autoencoders Forget

Masked Image Modeling (MIM) methods, like Masked Autoencoders (MAE), efficiently learn a rich representation of the input. However, for adapting to downstream tasks, they require a sufficient amount of labeled data since their rich features capture not only objects but also less relevant image background. In contrast, Instance Discrimination (ID) methods focus on objects. In this work, we study how to combine the efficiency and scalability of MIM with the ability of ID to perform downstream classification in the absence of large amounts of labeled data. To this end, we introduce Masked Autoencoder Contrastive Tuning (MAE-CT), a sequential approach that applies Nearest Neighbor Contrastive Learning (NNCLR) to a pre-trained MAE. MAE-CT tunes the rich features such that they form semantic clusters of objects without using any labels. Applied to large and huge Vision Transformer (ViT) models, MAE-CT matches or excels previous self-supervised methods trained on ImageNet in linear probing, k-NN and low-shot classification accuracy as well as in unsupervised clustering accuracy. Notably, similar results can be achieved without additional image augmentations. While ID methods generally rely on hand-crafted augmentations to avoid shortcut learning, we find that nearest neighbor lookup is sufficient and that this data-driven augmentation effect improves with model size. MAE-CT is compute efficient. For instance, starting from a MAE pre-trained ViT-L/16, MAE-CT increases the ImageNet 1% low-shot accuracy from 67.7% to 72.6%, linear probing accuracy from 76.0% to 80.2% and k-NN accuracy from 60.6% to 79.1% in just five hours using eight A100 GPUs.

Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networks

To quantify uncertainty, conformal prediction methods are gaining continuously more interest and have already been successfully applied to various domains. However, they are difficult to apply to time series as the autocorrelative structure of time series violates basic assumptions required by conformal prediction. We propose HopCPT, a novel conformal prediction approach for time series that not only copes with temporal structures but leverages them. We show that our approach is theoretically well justified for time series where temporal dependencies are present. In experiments, we demonstrate that our new approach outperforms state-of-the-art conformal prediction methods on multiple real-world time series datasets from four different domains.

Traffic4cast at NeurIPS 2022 -- Predict Dynamics along Graph Edges from Sparse Node Data: Whole City Traffic and ETA from Stationary Vehicle Detectors

The global trends of urbanization and increased personal mobility force us to rethink the way we live and use urban space. The Traffic4cast competition series tackles this problem in a data-driven way, advancing the latest methods in machine learning for modeling complex spatial systems over time. In this edition, our dynamic road graph data combine information from road maps, $10^{12}$ probe data points, and stationary vehicle detectors in three cities over the span of two years. While stationary vehicle detectors are the most accurate way to capture traffic volume, they are only available in few locations. Traffic4cast 2022 explores models that have the ability to generalize loosely related temporal vertex data on just a few nodes to predict dynamic future traffic states on the edges of the entire road graph. In the core challenge, participants are invited to predict the likelihoods of three congestion classes derived from the speed levels in the GPS data for the entire road graph in three cities 15 min into the future. We only provide vehicle count data from spatially sparse stationary vehicle detectors in these three cities as model input for this task. The data are aggregated in 15 min time bins for one hour prior to the prediction time. For the extended challenge, participants are tasked to predict the average travel times on super-segments 15 min into the future - super-segments are longer sequences of road segments in the graph. The competition results provide an important advance in the prediction of complex city-wide traffic states just from publicly available sparse vehicle data and without the need for large amounts of real-time floating vehicle data.