Finite Time Regret Bounds for Minimum Variance Control of Autoregressive Systems with Exogenous Inputs

Minimum variance controllers have been employed in a wide-range of industrial applications. A key challenge experienced by many adaptive controllers is their poor empirical performance in the initial stages of learning. In this paper, we address the problem of initializing them so that they provide acceptable transients, and also provide an accompanying finite-time regret analysis, for adaptive minimum variance control of an auto-regressive system with exogenous inputs (ARX). Following [3], we consider a modified version of the Certainty Equivalence (CE) adaptive controller, which we call PIECE, that utilizes probing inputs for exploration. We show that it has a $C \log T$ bound on the regret after $T$ time-steps for bounded noise, and $C\log^2 T$ in the case of sub-Gaussian noise. The simulation results demonstrate the advantage of PIECE over the algorithm proposed in [3] as well as the standard Certainty Equivalence controller especially in the initial learning phase. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides finite-time regret bounds for an adaptive minimum variance controller.

Kernel Ridge Regression Inference

We provide uniform confidence bands for kernel ridge regression (KRR), with finite sample guarantees. KRR is ubiquitous, yet--to our knowledge--this paper supplies the first exact, uniform confidence bands for KRR in the non-parametric regime where the regularization parameter $\lambda$ converges to 0, for general data distributions. Our proposed uniform confidence band is based on a new, symmetrized multiplier bootstrap procedure with a closed form solution, which allows for valid uncertainty quantification without assumptions on the bias. To justify the procedure, we derive non-asymptotic, uniform Gaussian and bootstrap couplings for partial sums in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with bounded kernel. Our results imply strong approximation for empirical processes indexed by the RKHS unit ball, with sharp, logarithmic dependence on the covering number.

Signed Graph Neural Networks: A Frequency Perspective

Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) and its variants are designed for unsigned graphs containing only positive links. Many existing GCNs have been derived from the spectral domain analysis of signals lying over (unsigned) graphs and in each convolution layer they perform low-pass filtering of the input features followed by a learnable linear transformation. Their extension to signed graphs with positive as well as negative links imposes multiple issues including computational irregularities and ambiguous frequency interpretation, making the design of computationally efficient low pass filters challenging. In this paper, we address these issues via spectral analysis of signed graphs and propose two different signed graph neural networks, one keeps only low-frequency information and one also retains high-frequency information. We further introduce magnetic signed Laplacian and use its eigendecomposition for spectral analysis of directed signed graphs. We test our methods for node classification and link sign prediction tasks on signed graphs and achieve state-of-the-art performances.

Quantifying Inherent Randomness in Machine Learning Algorithms

Most machine learning (ML) algorithms have several stochastic elements, and their performances are affected by these sources of randomness. This paper uses an empirical study to systematically examine the effects of two sources: randomness in model training and randomness in the partitioning of a dataset into training and test subsets. We quantify and compare the magnitude of the variation in predictive performance for the following ML algorithms: Random Forests (RFs), Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs), and Feedforward Neural Networks (FFNNs). Among the different algorithms, randomness in model training causes larger variation for FFNNs compared to tree-based methods. This is to be expected as FFNNs have more stochastic elements that are part of their model initialization and training. We also found that random splitting of datasets leads to higher variation compared to the inherent randomness from model training. The variation from data splitting can be a major issue if the original dataset has considerable heterogeneity. Keywords: Model Training, Reproducibility, Variation

Understanding Metrics for Paraphrasing

Paraphrase generation is a difficult problem. This is not only because of the limitations in text generation capabilities but also due that to the lack of a proper definition of what qualifies as a paraphrase and corresponding metrics to measure how good it is. Metrics for evaluation of paraphrasing quality is an on going research problem. Most of the existing metrics in use having been borrowed from other tasks do not capture the complete essence of a good paraphrase, and often fail at borderline-cases. In this work, we propose a novel metric $ROUGE_P$ to measure the quality of paraphrases along the dimensions of adequacy, novelty and fluency. We also provide empirical evidence to show that the current natural language generation metrics are insufficient to measure these desired properties of a good paraphrase. We look at paraphrase model fine-tuning and generation from the lens of metrics to gain a deeper understanding of what it takes to generate and evaluate a good paraphrase.

Automatic Debiased Machine Learning for Dynamic Treatment Effects

We extend the idea of automated debiased machine learning to the dynamic treatment regime. We show that the multiply robust formula for the dynamic treatment regime with discrete treatments can be re-stated in terms of a recursive Riesz representer characterization of nested mean regressions. We then apply a recursive Riesz representer estimation learning algorithm that estimates de-biasing corrections without the need to characterize how the correction terms look like, such as for instance, products of inverse probability weighting terms, as is done in prior work on doubly robust estimation in the dynamic regime. Our approach defines a sequence of loss minimization problems, whose minimizers are the mulitpliers of the de-biasing correction, hence circumventing the need for solving auxiliary propensity models and directly optimizing for the mean squared error of the target de-biasing correction.

Model-free Reinforcement Learning for Content Caching at the Wireless Edge via Restless Bandits

An explosive growth in the number of on-demand content requests has imposed significant pressure on current wireless network infrastructure. To enhance the perceived user experience, and support latency-sensitive applications, edge computing has emerged as a promising computing paradigm. The performance of a wireless edge depends on contents that are cached. In this paper, we consider the problem of content caching at the wireless edge with unreliable channels to minimize average content request latency. We formulate this problem as a restless bandit problem, which is provably hard to solve. We begin by investigating a discounted counterpart, and prove that it admits an optimal policy of the threshold-type. We then show that the result also holds for the average latency problem. Using these structural results, we establish the indexability of the problem, and employ Whittle index policy to minimize average latency. Since system parameters such as content request rate are often unknown, we further develop a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm dubbed Q-Whittle learning that relies on our index policy. We also derive a bound on its finite-time convergence rate. Simulation results using real traces demonstrate that our proposed algorithms yield excellent empirical performance.

Augmented RBMLE-UCB Approach for Adaptive Control of Linear Quadratic Systems

We consider the problem of controlling a stochastic linear system with quadratic costs, when its system parameters are not known to the agent -- called the adaptive LQG control problem. We re-examine an approach called "Reward-Biased Maximum Likelihood Estimate" (RBMLE) that was proposed more than forty years ago, and which predates the "Upper Confidence Bound" (UCB) method as well as the definition of "regret". It simply added a term favoring parameters with larger rewards to the estimation criterion. We propose an augmented approach that combines the penalty of the RBMLE method with the constraint of the UCB method, uniting the two approaches to optimization in the face of uncertainty. We first establish that theoretically this method retains $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret, the best known so far. We show through a comprehensive simulation study that this augmented RBMLE method considerably outperforms the UCB and Thompson sampling approaches, with a regret that is typically less than 50\% of the better of their regrets. The simulation study includes all examples from earlier papers as well as a large collection of randomly generated systems.

Generalized Kernel Ridge Regression for Long Term Causal Inference: Treatment Effects, Dose Responses, and Counterfactual Distributions

I propose kernel ridge regression estimators for long term causal inference, where a short term experimental data set containing randomized treatment and short term surrogates is fused with a long term observational data set containing short term surrogates and long term outcomes. I propose estimators of treatment effects, dose responses, and counterfactual distributions with closed form solutions in terms of kernel matrix operations. I allow covariates, treatment, and surrogates to be discrete or continuous, and low, high, or infinite dimensional. For long term treatment effects, I prove $\sqrt{n}$ consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency. For long term dose responses, I prove uniform consistency with finite sample rates. For long term counterfactual distributions, I prove convergence in distribution.

A Finite Sample Theorem for Longitudinal Causal Inference with Machine Learning: Long Term, Dynamic, and Mediated Effects

I construct and justify confidence intervals for longitudinal causal parameters estimated with machine learning. Longitudinal parameters include long term, dynamic, and mediated effects. I provide a nonasymptotic theorem for any longitudinal causal parameter estimated with any machine learning algorithm that satisfies a few simple, interpretable conditions. The main result encompasses local parameters defined for specific demographics as well as proximal parameters defined in the presence of unobserved confounding. Formally, I prove consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency. The rate of convergence is $n^{-1/2}$ for global parameters, and it degrades gracefully for local parameters. I articulate a simple set of conditions to translate mean square rates into statistical inference. A key feature of the main result is a new multiple robustness to ill posedness for proximal causal inference in longitudinal settings.