Sequential Decision Making with Expert Demonstrations under Unobserved Heterogeneity

We study the problem of online sequential decision-making given auxiliary demonstrations from experts who made their decisions based on unobserved contextual information. These demonstrations can be viewed as solving related but slightly different tasks than what the learner faces. This setting arises in many application domains, such as self-driving cars, healthcare, and finance, where expert demonstrations are made using contextual information, which is not recorded in the data available to the learning agent. We model the problem as a zero-shot meta-reinforcement learning setting with an unknown task distribution and a Bayesian regret minimization objective, where the unobserved tasks are encoded as parameters with an unknown prior. We propose the Experts-as-Priors algorithm (ExPerior), a non-parametric empirical Bayes approach that utilizes the principle of maximum entropy to establish an informative prior over the learner's decision-making problem. This prior enables the application of any Bayesian approach for online decision-making, such as posterior sampling. We demonstrate that our strategy surpasses existing behaviour cloning and online algorithms for multi-armed bandits and reinforcement learning, showcasing the utility of our approach in leveraging expert demonstrations across different decision-making setups.

A Geometric Explanation of the Likelihood OOD Detection Paradox

Likelihood-based deep generative models (DGMs) commonly exhibit a puzzling behaviour: when trained on a relatively complex dataset, they assign higher likelihood values to out-of-distribution (OOD) data from simpler sources. Adding to the mystery, OOD samples are never generated by these DGMs despite having higher likelihoods. This two-pronged paradox has yet to be conclusively explained, making likelihood-based OOD detection unreliable. Our primary observation is that high-likelihood regions will not be generated if they contain minimal probability mass. We demonstrate how this seeming contradiction of large densities yet low probability mass can occur around data confined to low-dimensional manifolds. We also show that this scenario can be identified through local intrinsic dimension (LID) estimation, and propose a method for OOD detection which pairs the likelihoods and LID estimates obtained from a pre-trained DGM. Our method can be applied to normalizing flows and score-based diffusion models, and obtains results which match or surpass state-of-the-art OOD detection benchmarks using the same DGM backbones. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/dgm_ood_detection.

Measurement Scheduling for ICU Patients with Offline Reinforcement Learning

Scheduling laboratory tests for ICU patients presents a significant challenge. Studies show that 20-40% of lab tests ordered in the ICU are redundant and could be eliminated without compromising patient safety. Prior work has leveraged offline reinforcement learning (Offline-RL) to find optimal policies for ordering lab tests based on patient information. However, new ICU patient datasets have since been released, and various advancements have been made in Offline-RL methods. In this study, we first introduce a preprocessing pipeline for the newly-released MIMIC-IV dataset geared toward time-series tasks. We then explore the efficacy of state-of-the-art Offline-RL methods in identifying better policies for ICU patient lab test scheduling. Besides assessing methodological performance, we also discuss the overall suitability and practicality of using Offline-RL frameworks for scheduling laboratory tests in ICU settings.

MultiResFormer: Transformer with Adaptive Multi-Resolution Modeling for General Time Series Forecasting

Transformer-based models have greatly pushed the boundaries of time series forecasting recently. Existing methods typically encode time series data into $\textit{patches}$ using one or a fixed set of patch lengths. This, however, could result in a lack of ability to capture the variety of intricate temporal dependencies present in real-world multi-periodic time series. In this paper, we propose MultiResFormer, which dynamically models temporal variations by adaptively choosing optimal patch lengths. Concretely, at the beginning of each layer, time series data is encoded into several parallel branches, each using a detected periodicity, before going through the transformer encoder block. We conduct extensive evaluations on long- and short-term forecasting datasets comparing MultiResFormer with state-of-the-art baselines. MultiResFormer outperforms patch-based Transformer baselines on long-term forecasting tasks and also consistently outperforms CNN baselines by a large margin, while using much fewer parameters than these baselines.

Structured Neural Networks for Density Estimation and Causal Inference

Injecting structure into neural networks enables learning functions that satisfy invariances with respect to subsets of inputs. For instance, when learning generative models using neural networks, it is advantageous to encode the conditional independence structure of observed variables, often in the form of Bayesian networks. We propose the Structured Neural Network (StrNN), which injects structure through masking pathways in a neural network. The masks are designed via a novel relationship we explore between neural network architectures and binary matrix factorization, to ensure that the desired independencies are respected. We devise and study practical algorithms for this otherwise NP-hard design problem based on novel objectives that control the model architecture. We demonstrate the utility of StrNN in three applications: (1) binary and Gaussian density estimation with StrNN, (2) real-valued density estimation with Structured Autoregressive Flows (StrAFs) and Structured Continuous Normalizing Flows (StrCNF), and (3) interventional and counterfactual analysis with StrAFs for causal inference. Our work opens up new avenues for learning neural networks that enable data-efficient generative modeling and the use of normalizing flows for causal effect estimation.

OCDaf: Ordered Causal Discovery with Autoregressive Flows

We propose OCDaf, a novel order-based method for learning causal graphs from observational data. We establish the identifiability of causal graphs within multivariate heteroscedastic noise models, a generalization of additive noise models that allow for non-constant noise variances. Drawing upon the structural similarities between these models and affine autoregressive normalizing flows, we introduce a continuous search algorithm to find causal structures. Our experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across the Sachs and SynTReN benchmarks in Structural Hamming Distance (SHD) and Structural Intervention Distance (SID). Furthermore, we validate our identifiability theory across various parametric and nonparametric synthetic datasets and showcase superior performance compared to existing baselines.

Copula-Based Deep Survival Models for Dependent Censoring

A survival dataset describes a set of instances (e.g. patients) and provides, for each, either the time until an event (e.g. death), or the censoring time (e.g. when lost to follow-up - which is a lower bound on the time until the event). We consider the challenge of survival prediction: learning, from such data, a predictive model that can produce an individual survival distribution for a novel instance. Many contemporary methods of survival prediction implicitly assume that the event and censoring distributions are independent conditional on the instance's covariates - a strong assumption that is difficult to verify (as we observe only one outcome for each instance) and which can induce significant bias when it does not hold. This paper presents a parametric model of survival that extends modern non-linear survival analysis by relaxing the assumption of conditional independence. On synthetic and semi-synthetic data, our approach significantly improves estimates of survival distributions compared to the standard that assumes conditional independence in the data.

Clinical Camel: An Open-Source Expert-Level Medical Language Model with Dialogue-Based Knowledge Encoding

Large Language Models (LLMs) present immense potential in the medical field, yet concerns over data privacy, regulatory compliance, and model stability restrict their widespread adoption. Although the distillation of high-performing closed-source LLMs has proven effective for general tasks, their application in healthcare is limited due to reduced domain knowledge and remnants of alignment behavior hindering clinical tasks. To address these challenges, we propose Dialogue-Based Knowledge Encoding (DBKE). DBKE enhances models' implicit knowledge base and primes them for conversational recall, augmenting their conversational capabilities and enabling a soft alignment for subsequent use cases. By transforming dense academic source text into synthetic dialogue, DBKE broadens the model's knowledge base and enables a soft alignment that guides downstream behaviours. We present Clinical Camel, an open-source, healthcare-focused conversational model, to showcase the effectiveness of DBKE. Clinical Camel outperforms GPT-3.5 on the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 3 with scores of 53.2 % and 58.2 %, respectively, compared to GPT-3.5's scores of 36.1 % and 55.7 %. Clinical Camel adeptly handles multi-stage clinical case problems, provides adaptive counseling, and generates clinical notes. However, it is prone to hallucinations, which pose a significant obstacle in safety-critical settings. The performance of Clinical Camel underscores the importance of continued research and development of open-source models for the safe and effective integration of LLMs in healthcare settings.

DuETT: Dual Event Time Transformer for Electronic Health Records

Electronic health records (EHRs) recorded in hospital settings typically contain a wide range of numeric time series data that is characterized by high sparsity and irregular observations. Effective modelling for such data must exploit its time series nature, the semantic relationship between different types of observations, and information in the sparsity structure of the data. Self-supervised Transformers have shown outstanding performance in a variety of structured tasks in NLP and computer vision. But multivariate time series data contains structured relationships over two dimensions: time and recorded event type, and straightforward applications of Transformers to time series data do not leverage this distinct structure. The quadratic scaling of self-attention layers can also significantly limit the input sequence length without appropriate input engineering. We introduce the DuETT architecture, an extension of Transformers designed to attend over both time and event type dimensions, yielding robust representations from EHR data. DuETT uses an aggregated input where sparse time series are transformed into a regular sequence with fixed length; this lowers the computational complexity relative to previous EHR Transformer models and, more importantly, enables the use of larger and deeper neural networks. When trained with self-supervised prediction tasks, that provide rich and informative signals for model pre-training, our model outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models on multiple downstream tasks from the MIMIC-IV and PhysioNet-2012 EHR datasets.

Anamnesic Neural Differential Equations with Orthogonal Polynomial Projections

Neural ordinary differential equations (Neural ODEs) are an effective framework for learning dynamical systems from irregularly sampled time series data. These models provide a continuous-time latent representation of the underlying dynamical system where new observations at arbitrary time points can be used to update the latent representation of the dynamical system. Existing parameterizations for the dynamics functions of Neural ODEs limit the ability of the model to retain global information about the time series; specifically, a piece-wise integration of the latent process between observations can result in a loss of memory on the dynamic patterns of previously observed data points. We propose PolyODE, a Neural ODE that models the latent continuous-time process as a projection onto a basis of orthogonal polynomials. This formulation enforces long-range memory and preserves a global representation of the underlying dynamical system. Our construction is backed by favourable theoretical guarantees and in a series of experiments, we demonstrate that it outperforms previous works in the reconstruction of past and future data, and in downstream prediction tasks.