Fast Learning of MNL Model from General Partial Rankings with Application to Network Formation Modeling

Multinomial Logit (MNL) is one of the most popular discrete choice models and has been widely used to model ranking data. However, there is a long-standing technical challenge of learning MNL from many real-world ranking data: exact calculation of the MNL likelihood of \emph{partial rankings} is generally intractable. In this work, we develop a scalable method for approximating the MNL likelihood of general partial rankings in polynomial time complexity. We also extend the proposed method to learn mixture of MNL. We demonstrate that the proposed methods are particularly helpful for applications to choice-based network formation modeling, where the formation of new edges in a network is viewed as individuals making choices of their friends over a candidate set. The problem of learning mixture of MNL models from partial rankings naturally arises in such applications. And the proposed methods can be used to learn MNL models from network data without the strong assumption that temporal orders of all the edge formation are available. We conduct experiments on both synthetic and real-world network data to demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve more accurate parameter estimation and better fitness of data compared to conventional methods.

How Much of the Chemical Space Has Been Covered? Measuring and Improving the Variety of Candidate Set in Molecular Generation

Forming a high-quality molecular candidate set that contains a wide range of dissimilar compounds is crucial to the success of drug discovery. However, comparing to the research aiming at optimizing chemical properties, how to measure and improve the variety of drug candidates is relatively understudied. In this paper, we first investigate the problem of properly measuring the molecular variety through both an axiomatic analysis framework and an empirical study. Our analysis suggests that many existing measures are not suitable for evaluating the variety of molecules. We also propose new variety measures based on our analysis. We further explicitly integrate the proposed variety measures into the optimization objective of molecular generation models. Our experiment results demonstrate that this new optimization objective can guide molecular generation models to find compounds that cover a lager chemical space, providing the downstream phases with more distinctive drug candidate choices.

Subgroup Generalization and Fairness of Graph Neural Networks

Despite enormous successful applications of graph neural networks (GNNs) recently, theoretical understandings of their generalization ability, especially for node-level tasks where data are not independent and identically-distributed (IID), have been sparse. The theoretical investigation of the generalization performance is beneficial for understanding fundamental issues (such as fairness) of GNN models and designing better learning methods. In this paper, we present a novel PAC-Bayesian analysis for GNNs under a non-IID semi-supervised learning setup. Moreover, we analyze the generalization performances on different subgroups of unlabeled nodes, which allows us to further study an accuracy-(dis)parity-style (un)fairness of GNNs from a theoretical perspective. Under reasonable assumptions, we demonstrate that the distance between a test subgroup and the training set can be a key factor affecting the GNN performance on that subgroup, which calls special attention to the training node selection for fair learning. Experiments across multiple GNN models and datasets support our theoretical results.

Adversarial Attack on Graph Neural Networks as An Influence Maximization Problem

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have attracted increasing interests. With broad deployments of GNNs in real-world applications, there is an urgent need for understanding the robustness of GNNs under adversarial attacks, especially in realistic setups. In this work, we study the problem of attacking GNNs in a restricted and realistic setup, by perturbing the features of a small set of nodes, with no access to model parameters and model predictions. Our formal analysis draws a connection between this type of attacks and an influence maximization problem on the graph. This connection not only enhances our understanding on the problem of adversarial attack on GNNs, but also allows us to propose a group of effective and practical attack strategies. Our experiments verify that the proposed attack strategies significantly degrade the performance of three popular GNN models and outperform baseline adversarial attack strategies.

Emojis Predict Dropouts of Remote Workers: An Empirical Study of Emoji Usage on GitHub

Emotions at work have long been identified as critical signals of work motivations, status, and attitudes, and as predictors of various work-related outcomes. For example, harmonious passion increases commitment at work but stress reduces sustainability and leads to burnouts. When more and more employees work remotely, these emotional and mental health signals of workers become harder to observe through daily, face-to-face communications. The use of online platforms to communicate and collaborate at work provides an alternative channel to monitor the emotions of workers. This paper studies how emojis, as non-verbal cues in online communications, can be used for such purposes. In particular, we study how the developers on GitHub use emojis in their work-related activities. We show that developers have diverse patterns of emoji usage, which highly correlate to their working status including activity levels, types of work, types of communications, time management, and other behavioral patterns. Developers who use emojis in their posts are significantly less likely to dropout from the online work platform. Surprisingly, solely using emoji usage as features, standard machine learning models can predict future dropouts of developers at a satisfactory accuracy.

CopulaGNN: Towards Integrating Representational and Correlational Roles of Graphs in Graph Neural Networks

Graph-structured data are ubiquitous. However, graphs encode diverse types of information and thus play different roles in data representation. In this paper, we distinguish the \textit{representational} and the \textit{correlational} roles played by the graphs in node-level prediction tasks, and we investigate how Graph Neural Network (GNN) models can effectively leverage both types of information. Conceptually, the representational information provides guidance for the model to construct better node features; while the correlational information indicates the correlation between node outcomes conditional on node features. Through a simulation study, we find that many popular GNN models are incapable of effectively utilizing the correlational information. By leveraging the idea of the copula, a principled way to describe the dependence among multivariate random variables, we offer a general solution. The proposed Copula Graph Neural Network (CopulaGNN) can take a wide range of GNN models as base models and utilize both representational and correlational information stored in the graphs. Experimental results on two types of regression tasks verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

SODEN: A Scalable Continuous-Time Survival Model through Ordinary Differential Equation Networks

In this paper, we propose a flexible model for survival analysis using neural networks along with scalable optimization algorithms. One key technical challenge for directly applying maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to censored data is that evaluating the objective function and its gradients with respect to model parameters requires the calculation of integrals. To address this challenge, we recognize that the MLE for censored data can be viewed as a differential-equation constrained optimization problem, a novel perspective. Following this connection, we model the distribution of event time through an ordinary differential equation and utilize efficient ODE solvers and adjoint sensitivity analysis to numerically evaluate the likelihood and the gradients. Using this approach, we are able to 1) provide a broad family of continuous-time survival distributions without strong structural assumptions, 2) obtain powerful feature representations using neural networks, and 3) allow efficient estimation of the model in large-scale applications using stochastic gradient descent. Through both simulation studies and real-world data examples, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison to existing state-of-the-art deep learning survival analysis models.

Predicting Individual Treatment Effects of Large-scale Team Competitions in a Ride-sharing Economy

Millions of drivers worldwide have enjoyed financial benefits and work schedule flexibility through a ride-sharing economy, but meanwhile they have suffered from the lack of a sense of identity and career achievement. Equipped with social identity and contest theories, financially incentivized team competitions have been an effective instrument to increase drivers' productivity, job satisfaction, and retention, and to improve revenue over cost for ride-sharing platforms. While these competitions are overall effective, the decisive factors behind the treatment effects and how they affect the outcomes of individual drivers have been largely mysterious. In this study, we analyze data collected from more than 500 large-scale team competitions organized by a leading ride-sharing platform, building machine learning models to predict individual treatment effects. Through a careful investigation of features and predictors, we are able to reduce out-sample prediction error by more than 24%. Through interpreting the best-performing models, we discover many novel and actionable insights regarding how to optimize the design and the execution of team competitions on ride-sharing platforms. A simulated analysis demonstrates that by simply changing a few contest design options, the average treatment effect of a real competition is expected to increase by as much as 26%. Our procedure and findings shed light on how to analyze and optimize large-scale online field experiments in general.

An Empirical Study on Explainable Prediction of Text Complexity: Preliminaries for Text Simplification

Text simplification is concerned with reducing the language complexity and improving the readability of professional content so that the text is accessible to readers at different ages and educational levels. As a promising practice to improve the fairness and transparency of text information systems, the notion of text simplification has been mixed in existing literature, ranging all the way through assessing the complexity of single words to automatically generating simplified documents. We show that the general problem of text simplification can be formally decomposed into a compact pipeline of tasks to ensure the transparency and explanability of the process. In this paper, we present a systematic analysis of the first two steps in this pipeline: 1) predicting the complexity of a given piece of text, and 2) identifying complex components from the text considered to be complex. We show that these two tasks can be solved separately, using either lexical approaches or the state-of-the-art deep learning methods, or they can be solved jointly through an end-to-end, explainable machine learning predictor. We propose formal evaluation metrics for both tasks, through which we are able to compare the performance of the candidate approaches using multiple datasets from a diversity of domains.

Neural Language Generation: Formulation, Methods, and Evaluation

Recent advances in neural network-based generative modeling have reignited the hopes in having computer systems capable of seamlessly conversing with humans and able to understand natural language. Neural architectures have been employed to generate text excerpts to various degrees of success, in a multitude of contexts and tasks that fulfil various user needs. Notably, high capacity deep learning models trained on large scale datasets demonstrate unparalleled abilities to learn patterns in the data even in the lack of explicit supervision signals, opening up a plethora of new possibilities regarding producing realistic and coherent texts. While the field of natural language generation is evolving rapidly, there are still many open challenges to address. In this survey we formally define and categorize the problem of natural language generation. We review particular application tasks that are instantiations of these general formulations, in which generating natural language is of practical importance. Next we include a comprehensive outline of methods and neural architectures employed for generating diverse texts. Nevertheless, there is no standard way to assess the quality of text produced by these generative models, which constitutes a serious bottleneck towards the progress of the field. To this end, we also review current approaches to evaluating natural language generation systems. We hope this survey will provide an informative overview of formulations, methods, and assessments of neural natural language generation.