SOPE: Spectrum of Off-Policy Estimators

Many sequential decision making problems are high-stakes and require off-policy evaluation (OPE) of a new policy using historical data collected using some other policy. One of the most common OPE techniques that provides unbiased estimates is trajectory based importance sampling (IS). However, due to the high variance of trajectory IS estimates, importance sampling methods based on state-action visitation distributions (SIS) have recently been adopted. Unfortunately, while SIS often provides lower variance estimates for long horizons, estimating the state-action distribution ratios can be challenging and lead to biased estimates. In this paper, we present a new perspective on this bias-variance trade-off and show the existence of a spectrum of estimators whose endpoints are SIS and IS. Additionally, we also establish a spectrum for doubly-robust and weighted version of these estimators. We provide empirical evidence that estimators in this spectrum can be used to trade-off between the bias and variance of IS and SIS and can achieve lower mean-squared error than both IS and SIS.

Multi-Objective SPIBB: Seldonian Offline Policy Improvement with Safety Constraints in Finite MDPs

We study the problem of Safe Policy Improvement (SPI) under constraints in the offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) setting. We consider the scenario where: (i) we have a dataset collected under a known baseline policy, (ii) multiple reward signals are received from the environment inducing as many objectives to optimize. We present an SPI formulation for this RL setting that takes into account the preferences of the algorithm's user for handling the trade-offs for different reward signals while ensuring that the new policy performs at least as well as the baseline policy along each individual objective. We build on traditional SPI algorithms and propose a novel method based on Safe Policy Iteration with Baseline Bootstrapping (SPIBB, Laroche et al., 2019) that provides high probability guarantees on the performance of the agent in the true environment. We show the effectiveness of our method on a synthetic grid-world safety task as well as in a real-world critical care context to learn a policy for the administration of IV fluids and vasopressors to treat sepsis.

Universal Off-Policy Evaluation

When faced with sequential decision-making problems, it is often useful to be able to predict what would happen if decisions were made using a new policy. Those predictions must often be based on data collected under some previously used decision-making rule. Many previous methods enable such off-policy (or counterfactual) estimation of the expected value of a performance measure called the return. In this paper, we take the first steps towards a universal off-policy estimator (UnO) -- one that provides off-policy estimates and high-confidence bounds for any parameter of the return distribution. We use UnO for estimating and simultaneously bounding the mean, variance, quantiles/median, inter-quantile range, CVaR, and the entire cumulative distribution of returns. Finally, we also discuss Uno's applicability in various settings, including fully observable, partially observable (i.e., with unobserved confounders), Markovian, non-Markovian, stationary, smoothly non-stationary, and discrete distribution shifts.

High-Confidence Off-Policy (or Counterfactual) Variance Estimation

Many sequential decision-making systems leverage data collected using prior policies to propose a new policy. For critical applications, it is important that high-confidence guarantees on the new policy's behavior are provided before deployment, to ensure that the policy will behave as desired. Prior works have studied high-confidence off-policy estimation of the expected return, however, high-confidence off-policy estimation of the variance of returns can be equally critical for high-risk applications. In this paper, we tackle the previously open problem of estimating and bounding, with high confidence, the variance of returns from off-policy data

Towards Safe Policy Improvement for Non-Stationary MDPs

Many real-world sequential decision-making problems involve critical systems with financial risks and human-life risks. While several works in the past have proposed methods that are safe for deployment, they assume that the underlying problem is stationary. However, many real-world problems of interest exhibit non-stationarity, and when stakes are high, the cost associated with a false stationarity assumption may be unacceptable. We take the first steps towards ensuring safety, with high confidence, for smoothly-varying non-stationary decision problems. Our proposed method extends a type of safe algorithm, called a Seldonian algorithm, through a synthesis of model-free reinforcement learning with time-series analysis. Safety is ensured using sequential hypothesis testing of a policy's forecasted performance, and confidence intervals are obtained using wild bootstrap.

Reinforcement Learning for Strategic Recommendations

Strategic recommendations (SR) refer to the problem where an intelligent agent observes the sequential behaviors and activities of users and decides when and how to interact with them to optimize some long-term objectives, both for the user and the business. These systems are in their infancy in the industry and in need of practical solutions to some fundamental research challenges. At Adobe research, we have been implementing such systems for various use-cases, including points of interest recommendations, tutorial recommendations, next step guidance in multi-media editing software, and ad recommendation for optimizing lifetime value. There are many research challenges when building these systems, such as modeling the sequential behavior of users, deciding when to intervene and offer recommendations without annoying the user, evaluating policies offline with high confidence, safe deployment, non-stationarity, building systems from passive data that do not contain past recommendations, resource constraint optimization in multi-user systems, scaling to large and dynamic actions spaces, and handling and incorporating human cognitive biases. In this paper we cover various use-cases and research challenges we solved to make these systems practical.

Evaluating the Performance of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms

Performance evaluations are critical for quantifying algorithmic advances in reinforcement learning. Recent reproducibility analyses have shown that reported performance results are often inconsistent and difficult to replicate. In this work, we argue that the inconsistency of performance stems from the use of flawed evaluation metrics. Taking a step towards ensuring that reported results are consistent, we propose a new comprehensive evaluation methodology for reinforcement learning algorithms that produces reliable measurements of performance both on a single environment and when aggregated across environments. We demonstrate this method by evaluating a broad class of reinforcement learning algorithms on standard benchmark tasks.

Optimizing for the Future in Non-Stationary MDPs

Most reinforcement learning methods are based upon the key assumption that the transition dynamics and reward functions are fixed, that is, the underlying Markov decision process (MDP) is stationary. However, in many practical real-world applications, this assumption is often violated. We discuss how current methods can have inherent limitations for non-stationary MDPs, and therefore searching for a policy that is good for the future, unknown MDP, requires rethinking the optimization paradigm. To address this problem, we develop a method that builds upon ideas from both counter-factual reasoning and curve-fitting to proactively search for a good future policy, without ever modeling the underlying non-stationarity. Interestingly, we observe that minimizing performance over some of the data from past episodes might be beneficial when searching for a policy that maximizes future performance. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on problems motivated by real-world applications.