Conformalized Signal Temporal Logic Inference under Covariate Shift

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference learns interpretable logical rules for temporal behaviors in dynamical systems. To ensure the correctness of learned STL formulas, recent approaches have incorporated conformal prediction as a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. However, most existing methods rely on the assumption that calibration and testing data are identically distributed and exchangeable, an assumption that is frequently violated in real-world settings. This paper proposes a conformalized STL inference framework that explicitly addresses covariate shift between training and deployment trajectories dataset. From a technical standpoint, the approach first employs a template-free, differentiable STL inference method to learn an initial model, and subsequently refines it using a limited deployment side dataset to promote distribution alignment. To provide validity guarantees under distribution shift, the framework estimates the likelihood ratio between training and deployment distributions and integrates it into an STL-robustness-based weighted conformal prediction scheme. Experimental results on trajectory datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework preserves the interpretability of STL formulas while significantly improving symbolic learning reliability at deployment time.

Real-Time Optical Communication Using Event-Based Vision with Moving Transmitters

In multi-robot systems, traditional radio frequency (RF) communication struggles with contention and jamming. Optical communication offers a strong alternative. However, conventional frame-based cameras suffer from limited frame rates, motion blur, and reduced robustness under high dynamic range lighting. Event cameras support microsecond temporal resolution and high dynamic range, making them extremely sensitive to scene changes under fast relative motion with an optical transmitter. Leveraging these strengths, we develop a complete optical communication system capable of tracking moving transmitters and decoding messages in real time. Our system achieves over $95\%$ decoding accuracy for text transmission during motion by implementing a Geometry-Aware Unscented Kalman Filter (GA-UKF), achieving 7x faster processing speed compared to the previous state-of-the-art method, while maintaining equivalent tracking accuracy at transmitting frequencies $\geq$ 1 kHz.

Solving Parameter-Robust Avoid Problems with Unknown Feasibility using Reinforcement Learning

Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning (RL) have achieved strong results on high-dimensional control tasks, but applying RL to reachability problems raises a fundamental mismatch: reachability seeks to maximize the set of states from which a system remains safe indefinitely, while RL optimizes expected returns over a user-specified distribution. This mismatch can result in policies that perform poorly on low-probability states that are still within the safe set. A natural alternative is to frame the problem as a robust optimization over a set of initial conditions that specify the initial state, dynamics and safe set, but whether this problem has a solution depends on the feasibility of the specified set, which is unknown a priori. We propose Feasibility-Guided Exploration (FGE), a method that simultaneously identifies a subset of feasible initial conditions under which a safe policy exists, and learns a policy to solve the reachability problem over this set of initial conditions. Empirical results demonstrate that FGE learns policies with over 50% more coverage than the best existing method for challenging initial conditions across tasks in the MuJoCo simulator and the Kinetix simulator with pixel observations.

ReFORM: Reflected Flows for On-support Offline RL via Noise Manipulation

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn the optimal policy from a fixed dataset generated by behavior policies without additional environment interactions. One common challenge that arises in this setting is the out-of-distribution (OOD) error, which occurs when the policy leaves the training distribution. Prior methods penalize a statistical distance term to keep the policy close to the behavior policy, but this constrains policy improvement and may not completely prevent OOD actions. Another challenge is that the optimal policy distribution can be multimodal and difficult to represent. Recent works apply diffusion or flow policies to address this problem, but it is unclear how to avoid OOD errors while retaining policy expressiveness. We propose ReFORM, an offline RL method based on flow policies that enforces the less restrictive support constraint by construction. ReFORM learns a behavior cloning (BC) flow policy with a bounded source distribution to capture the support of the action distribution, then optimizes a reflected flow that generates bounded noise for the BC flow while keeping the support, to maximize the performance. Across 40 challenging tasks from the OGBench benchmark with datasets of varying quality and using a constant set of hyperparameters for all tasks, ReFORM dominates all baselines with hand-tuned hyperparameters on the performance profile curves.

Multi-Modal Conformal Prediction Regions by Optimizing Convex Shape Templates

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions for machine learning models that are valid with high probability. A key component of conformal prediction algorithms is a non-conformity score function that quantifies how different a model's prediction is from the unknown ground truth value. Essentially, these functions determine the shape and the size of the conformal prediction regions. However, little work has gone into finding non-conformity score functions that produce prediction regions that are multi-modal and practical, i.e., that can efficiently be used in engineering applications. We propose a method that optimizes parameterized shape template functions over calibration data, which results in non-conformity score functions that produce prediction regions with minimum volume. Our approach results in prediction regions that are multi-modal, so they can properly capture residuals of distributions that have multiple modes, and practical, so each region is convex and can be easily incorporated into downstream tasks, such as a motion planner using conformal prediction regions. Our method applies to general supervised learning tasks, while we illustrate its use in time-series prediction. We provide a toolbox and present illustrative case studies of F16 fighter jets and autonomous vehicles, showing an up to $68\%$ reduction in prediction region area.

Distributionally Robust Statistical Verification with Imprecise Neural Networks

A particularly challenging problem in AI safety is providing guarantees on the behavior of high-dimensional autonomous systems. Verification approaches centered around reachability analysis fail to scale, and purely statistical approaches are constrained by the distributional assumptions about the sampling process. Instead, we pose a distributionally robust version of the statistical verification problem for black-box systems, where our performance guarantees hold over a large family of distributions. This paper proposes a novel approach based on a combination of active learning, uncertainty quantification, and neural network verification. A central piece of our approach is an ensemble technique called Imprecise Neural Networks, which provides the uncertainty to guide active learning. The active learning uses an exhaustive neural-network verification tool Sherlock to collect samples. An evaluation on multiple physical simulators in the openAI gym Mujoco environments with reinforcement-learned controllers demonstrates that our approach can provide useful and scalable guarantees for high-dimensional systems.

Causal Repair of Learning-enabled Cyber-physical Systems

Models of actual causality leverage domain knowledge to generate convincing diagnoses of events that caused an outcome. It is promising to apply these models to diagnose and repair run-time property violations in cyber-physical systems (CPS) with learning-enabled components (LEC). However, given the high diversity and complexity of LECs, it is challenging to encode domain knowledge (e.g., the CPS dynamics) in a scalable actual causality model that could generate useful repair suggestions. In this paper, we focus causal diagnosis on the input/output behaviors of LECs. Specifically, we aim to identify which subset of I/O behaviors of the LEC is an actual cause for a property violation. An important by-product is a counterfactual version of the LEC that repairs the run-time property by fixing the identified problematic behaviors. Based on this insights, we design a two-step diagnostic pipeline: (1) construct and Halpern-Pearl causality model that reflects the dependency of property outcome on the component's I/O behaviors, and (2) perform a search for an actual cause and corresponding repair on the model. We prove that our pipeline has the following guarantee: if an actual cause is found, the system is guaranteed to be repaired; otherwise, we have high probabilistic confidence that the LEC under analysis did not cause the property violation. We demonstrate that our approach successfully repairs learned controllers on a standard OpenAI Gym benchmark.

Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series using Linear Complementarity Programming

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction regions. In fact, to obtain prediction regions over $T$ time steps with confidence $1-\delta$, {previous works require that each individual prediction region is valid} with confidence $1-\delta/T$. We propose an optimization-based method for reducing this conservatism to enable long horizon planning and verification when using learning-enabled time series predictors. Instead of considering prediction errors individually at each time step, we consider a parameterized prediction error over multiple time steps. By optimizing the parameters over an additional dataset, we find prediction regions that are not conservative. We show that this problem can be cast as a mixed integer linear complementarity program (MILCP), which we then relax into a linear complementarity program (LCP). Additionally, we prove that the relaxed LP has the same optimal cost as the original MILCP. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our method on a case study using pedestrian trajectory predictors.

Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Motion Planning among Dynamic Agents

This paper proposes an algorithm for motion planning among dynamic agents using adaptive conformal prediction. We consider a deterministic control system and use trajectory predictors to predict the dynamic agents' future motion, which is assumed to follow an unknown distribution. We then leverage ideas from adaptive conformal prediction to dynamically quantify prediction uncertainty from an online data stream. Particularly, we provide an online algorithm uses delayed agent observations to obtain uncertainty sets for multistep-ahead predictions with probabilistic coverage. These uncertainty sets are used within a model predictive controller to safely navigate among dynamic agents. While most existing data-driven prediction approached quantify prediction uncertainty heuristically, we quantify the true prediction uncertainty in a distribution-free, adaptive manner that even allows to capture changes in prediction quality and the agents' motion. We empirically evaluate of our algorithm on a simulation case studies where a drone avoids a flying frisbee.

Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Prediction

We propose a framework for planning in unknown dynamic environments with probabilistic safety guarantees using conformal prediction. Particularly, we design a model predictive controller (MPC) that uses i) trajectory predictions of the dynamic environment, and ii) prediction regions quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. To obtain prediction regions, we use conformal prediction, a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification, that requires availability of offline trajectory data - a reasonable assumption in many applications such as autonomous driving. The prediction regions are valid, i.e., they hold with a user-defined probability, so that the MPC is provably safe. We illustrate the results in the self-driving car simulator CARLA at a pedestrian-filled intersection. The strength of our approach is compatibility with state of the art trajectory predictors, e.g., RNNs and LSTMs, while making no assumptions on the underlying trajectory-generating distribution. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first results that provide valid safety guarantees in such a setting.