ForcingDAS: Unified and Robust Data Assimilation via Diffusion Forcing

Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on frame-to-frame transition models. However, these models are fragile when observations are non-Markovian (when they form only a partial slice of a higher-dimensional latent state as in real-world weather data): they tend to accumulate errors over long horizons. At the same time, learned DA methods typically commit to a single regime, either filtering (nowcasting, real-time forecasting) or smoothing (retrospective reanalysis), which splits what should be a shared prior across application-specific pipelines. To address both issues, we introduce ForcingDAS, a unified and robust DA framework. Built on Diffusion Forcing with an independent noise level assigned to each frame, ForcingDAS learns a joint-trajectory prior instead of frame-to-frame transitions. This allows it to capture long-horizon temporal dependencies and reduce error accumulation. In addition, the same trained model spans the full filtering to smoothing spectrum at inference time. Specifically, nowcasting, fixed-lag smoothing, and batch reanalysis are selected through the inference schedule alone, without retraining. We evaluate ForcingDAS on 2D Navier-Stokes vorticity, precipitation nowcasting, and global atmospheric state estimation. Across all settings, a single model is competitive with or outperforms both learned and classical baselines that are specialized for individual regimes, with the largest gains observed on real-world weather benchmarks.

Generalization of Diffusion Models Arises with a Balanced Representation Space

Diffusion models excel at generating high-quality, diverse samples, yet they risk memorizing training data when overfit to the training objective. We analyze the distinctions between memorization and generalization in diffusion models through the lens of representation learning. By investigating a two-layer ReLU denoising autoencoder (DAE), we prove that (i) memorization corresponds to the model storing raw training samples in the learned weights for encoding and decoding, yielding localized "spiky" representations, whereas (ii) generalization arises when the model captures local data statistics, producing "balanced" representations. Furthermore, we validate these theoretical findings on real-world unconditional and text-to-image diffusion models, demonstrating that the same representation structures emerge in deep generative models with significant practical implications. Building on these insights, we propose a representation-based method for detecting memorization and a training-free editing technique that allows precise control via representation steering. Together, our results highlight that learning good representations is central to novel and meaningful generative modeling.