Understanding Different Design Choices in Training Large Time Series Models

Inspired by Large Language Models (LLMs), Time Series Forecasting (TSF), a long-standing task in time series analysis, is undergoing a transition towards Large Time Series Models (LTSMs), aiming to train universal transformer-based models for TSF. However, training LTSMs on heterogeneous time series data poses unique challenges, including diverse frequencies, dimensions, and patterns across datasets. Recent endeavors have studied and evaluated various design choices aimed at enhancing LTSM training and generalization capabilities, spanning pre-processing techniques, model configurations, and dataset configurations. In this work, we comprehensively analyze these design choices and aim to identify the best practices for training LTSM. Moreover, we propose \emph{time series prompt}, a novel statistical prompting strategy tailored to time series data. Furthermore, based on the observations in our analysis, we introduce \texttt{LTSM-bundle}, which bundles the best design choices we have identified. Empirical results demonstrate that \texttt{LTSM-bundle} achieves superior zero-shot and few-shot performances compared to state-of-the-art LSTMs and traditional TSF methods on benchmark datasets.

Beyond Fairness: Age-Harmless Parkinson's Detection via Voice

Parkinson's disease (PD), a neurodegenerative disorder, often manifests as speech and voice dysfunction. While utilizing voice data for PD detection has great potential in clinical applications, the widely used deep learning models currently have fairness issues regarding different ages of onset. These deep models perform well for the elderly group (age $>$ 55) but are less accurate for the young group (age $\leq$ 55). Through our investigation, the discrepancy between the elderly and the young arises due to 1) an imbalanced dataset and 2) the milder symptoms often seen in early-onset patients. However, traditional debiasing methods are impractical as they typically impair the prediction accuracy for the majority group while minimizing the discrepancy. To address this issue, we present a new debiasing method using GradCAM-based feature masking combined with ensemble models, ensuring that neither fairness nor accuracy is compromised. Specifically, the GradCAM-based feature masking selectively obscures age-related features in the input voice data while preserving essential information for PD detection. The ensemble models further improve the prediction accuracy for the minority (young group). Our approach effectively improves detection accuracy for early-onset patients without sacrificing performance for the elderly group. Additionally, we propose a two-step detection strategy for the young group, offering a practical risk assessment for potential early-onset PD patients.