Combining Confidence Elicitation and Sample-based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Misinformation Mitigation

Large Language Models have emerged as prime candidates to tackle misinformation mitigation. However, existing approaches struggle with hallucinations and overconfident predictions. We propose an uncertainty quantification framework that leverages both direct confidence elicitation and sampled-based consistency methods to provide better calibration for NLP misinformation mitigation solutions. We first investigate the calibration of sample-based consistency methods that exploit distinct features of consistency across sample sizes and stochastic levels. Next, we evaluate the performance and distributional shift of a robust numeric verbalization prompt across single vs. two-step confidence elicitation procedure. We also compare the performance of the same prompt with different versions of GPT and different numerical scales. Finally, we combine the sample-based consistency and verbalized methods to propose a hybrid framework that yields a better uncertainty estimation for GPT models. Overall, our work proposes novel uncertainty quantification methods that will improve the reliability of Large Language Models in misinformation mitigation applications.

Comparing GPT-4 and Open-Source Language Models in Misinformation Mitigation

Recent large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be effective for misinformation detection. However, the choice of LLMs for experiments varies widely, leading to uncertain conclusions. In particular, GPT-4 is known to be strong in this domain, but it is closed source, potentially expensive, and can show instability between different versions. Meanwhile, alternative LLMs have given mixed results. In this work, we show that Zephyr-7b presents a consistently viable alternative, overcoming key limitations of commonly used approaches like Llama-2 and GPT-3.5. This provides the research community with a solid open-source option and shows open-source models are gradually catching up on this task. We then highlight how GPT-3.5 exhibits unstable performance, such that this very widely used model could provide misleading results in misinformation detection. Finally, we validate new tools including approaches to structured output and the latest version of GPT-4 (Turbo), showing they do not compromise performance, thus unlocking them for future research and potentially enabling more complex pipelines for misinformation mitigation.

Uncertainty Resolution in Misinformation Detection

Misinformation poses a variety of risks, such as undermining public trust and distorting factual discourse. Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 have been shown effective in mitigating misinformation, particularly in handling statements where enough context is provided. However, they struggle to assess ambiguous or context-deficient statements accurately. This work introduces a new method to resolve uncertainty in such statements. We propose a framework to categorize missing information and publish category labels for the LIAR-New dataset, which is adaptable to cross-domain content with missing information. We then leverage this framework to generate effective user queries for missing context. Compared to baselines, our method improves the rate at which generated questions are answerable by the user by 38 percentage points and classification performance by over 10 percentage points macro F1. Thus, this approach may provide a valuable component for future misinformation mitigation pipelines.

Exploiting Novel GPT-4 APIs

Language model attacks typically assume one of two extreme threat models: full white-box access to model weights, or black-box access limited to a text generation API. However, real-world APIs are often more flexible than just text generation: these APIs expose ``gray-box'' access leading to new threat vectors. To explore this, we red-team three new functionalities exposed in the GPT-4 APIs: fine-tuning, function calling and knowledge retrieval. We find that fine-tuning a model on as few as 15 harmful examples or 100 benign examples can remove core safeguards from GPT-4, enabling a range of harmful outputs. Furthermore, we find that GPT-4 Assistants readily divulge the function call schema and can be made to execute arbitrary function calls. Finally, we find that knowledge retrieval can be hijacked by injecting instructions into retrieval documents. These vulnerabilities highlight that any additions to the functionality exposed by an API can create new vulnerabilities.

Party Prediction for Twitter

A large number of studies on social media compare the behaviour of users from different political parties. As a basic step, they employ a predictive model for inferring their political affiliation. The accuracy of this model can change the conclusions of a downstream analysis significantly, yet the choice between different models seems to be made arbitrarily. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey and an empirical comparison of the current party prediction practices and propose several new approaches which are competitive with or outperform state-of-the-art methods, yet require less computational resources. Party prediction models rely on the content generated by the users (e.g., tweet texts), the relations they have (e.g., who they follow), or their activities and interactions (e.g., which tweets they like). We examine all of these and compare their signal strength for the party prediction task. This paper lets the practitioner select from a wide range of data types that all give strong performance. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on different aspects of these methods, such as data collection speed and transfer capabilities, which can provide further insights for both applied and methodological research.

Open, Closed, or Small Language Models for Text Classification?

Recent advancements in large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various NLP tasks. But many questions remain, including whether open-source models match closed ones, why these models excel or struggle with certain tasks, and what types of practical procedures can improve performance. We address these questions in the context of classification by evaluating three classes of models using eight datasets across three distinct tasks: named entity recognition, political party prediction, and misinformation detection. While larger LLMs often lead to improved performance, open-source models can rival their closed-source counterparts by fine-tuning. Moreover, supervised smaller models, like RoBERTa, can achieve similar or even greater performance in many datasets compared to generative LLMs. On the other hand, closed models maintain an advantage in hard tasks that demand the most generalizability. This study underscores the importance of model selection based on task requirements

Towards Reliable Misinformation Mitigation: Generalization, Uncertainty, and GPT-4

Misinformation poses a critical societal challenge, and current approaches have yet to produce an effective solution. We propose focusing on generalization, soft classification, and leveraging recent large language models to create more practical tools in contexts where perfect predictions remain unattainable. We begin by demonstrating that GPT-4 and other language models can outperform existing methods in the literature. Next, we explore their generalization, revealing that GPT-4 and RoBERTa-large exhibit critical differences in failure modes, which offer potential for significant performance improvements. Finally, we show that these models can be employed in soft classification frameworks to better quantify uncertainty. We find that models with inferior hard classification results can achieve superior soft classification performance. Overall, this research lays groundwork for future tools that can drive real-world progress on misinformation.

Active Keyword Selection to Track Evolving Topics on Twitter

How can we study social interactions on evolving topics at a mass scale? Over the past decade, researchers from diverse fields such as economics, political science, and public health have often done this by querying Twitter's public API endpoints with hand-picked topical keywords to search or stream discussions. However, despite the API's accessibility, it remains difficult to select and update keywords to collect high-quality data relevant to topics of interest. In this paper, we propose an active learning method for rapidly refining query keywords to increase both the yielded topic relevance and dataset size. We leverage a large open-source COVID-19 Twitter dataset to illustrate the applicability of our method in tracking Tweets around the key sub-topics of Vaccine, Mask, and Lockdown. Our experiments show that our method achieves an average topic-related keyword recall 2x higher than baselines. We open-source our code along with a web interface for keyword selection to make data collection from Twitter more systematic for researchers.

Towards Better Evaluation for Dynamic Link Prediction

There has been recent success in learning from static graphs, but despite their prevalence, learning from time-evolving graphs remains challenging. We design new, more stringent evaluation procedures for link prediction specific to dynamic graphs, which reflect real-world considerations and can better compare different methods' strengths and weaknesses. In particular, we create two visualization techniques to understand the recurring patterns of edges over time. They show that many edges reoccur at later time steps. Therefore, we propose a pure memorization baseline called EdgeBank. It achieves surprisingly strong performance across multiple settings, partly due to the easy negative edges used in the current evaluation setting. Hence, we introduce two more challenging negative sampling strategies that improve robustness and can better match real-world applications. Lastly, we introduce five new dynamic graph datasets from a diverse set of domains missing from current benchmarks, providing new challenges and opportunities for future research.

The Surprising Performance of Simple Baselines for Misinformation Detection

As social media becomes increasingly prominent in our day to day lives, it is increasingly important to detect informative content and prevent the spread of disinformation and unverified rumours. While many sophisticated and successful models have been proposed in the literature, they are often compared with older NLP baselines such as SVMs, CNNs, and LSTMs. In this paper, we examine the performance of a broad set of modern transformer-based language models and show that with basic fine-tuning, these models are competitive with and can even significantly outperform recently proposed state-of-the-art methods. We present our framework as a baseline for creating and evaluating new methods for misinformation detection. We further study a comprehensive set of benchmark datasets, and discuss potential data leakage and the need for careful design of the experiments and understanding of datasets to account for confounding variables. As an extreme case example, we show that classifying only based on the first three digits of tweet ids, which contain information on the date, gives state-of-the-art performance on a commonly used benchmark dataset for fake news detection --Twitter16. We provide a simple tool to detect this problem and suggest steps to mitigate it in future datasets.