A Deconfounding Approach to Climate Model Bias Correction

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, GCM outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate representation of complex climate phenomena. Traditional bias correction methods, which rely on historical observation data and statistical techniques, often neglect unobserved confounders, leading to biased results. This paper proposes a novel bias correction approach to utilize both GCM and observational data to learn a factor model that captures multi-cause latent confounders. Inspired by recent advances in causality based time series deconfounding, our method first constructs a factor model to learn latent confounders from historical data and then applies them to enhance the bias correction process using advanced time series forecasting models. The experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs. By addressing unobserved confounders, our approach offers a robust and theoretically grounded solution for climate model bias correction.

Estimating Peer Direct and Indirect Effects in Observational Network Data

Estimating causal effects is crucial for decision-makers in many applications, but it is particularly challenging with observational network data due to peer interactions. Many algorithms have been proposed to estimate causal effects involving network data, particularly peer effects, but they often overlook the variety of peer effects. To address this issue, we propose a general setting which considers both peer direct effects and peer indirect effects, and the effect of an individual's own treatment, and provide identification conditions of these causal effects and proofs. To estimate these causal effects, we utilize attention mechanisms to distinguish the influences of different neighbors and explore high-order neighbor effects through multi-layer graph neural networks (GNNs). Additionally, to control the dependency between node features and representations, we incorporate the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) into the GNN, fully utilizing the structural information of the graph, to enhance the robustness and accuracy of the model. Extensive experiments on two semi-synthetic datasets confirm the effectiveness of our approach. Our theoretical findings have the potential to improve intervention strategies in networked systems, with applications in areas such as social networks and epidemiology.

MRC-based Nested Medical NER with Co-prediction and Adaptive Pre-training

In medical information extraction, medical Named Entity Recognition (NER) is indispensable, playing a crucial role in developing medical knowledge graphs, enhancing medical question-answering systems, and analyzing electronic medical records. The challenge in medical NER arises from the complex nested structures and sophisticated medical terminologies, distinguishing it from its counterparts in traditional domains. In response to these complexities, we propose a medical NER model based on Machine Reading Comprehension (MRC), which uses a task-adaptive pre-training strategy to improve the model's capability in the medical field. Meanwhile, our model introduces multiple word-pair embeddings and multi-granularity dilated convolution to enhance the model's representation ability and uses a combined predictor of Biaffine and MLP to improve the model's recognition performance. Experimental evaluations conducted on the CMeEE, a benchmark for Chinese nested medical NER, demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms the compared state-of-the-art (SOTA) models.